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Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.

Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.

First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.

But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.

The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.

For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?


Because the series doesn't support it at all. For all the ranting and raving, there is no evidence that two women together are as powerful as the strongest channeler possible. But there are many quotes that theoretically and demonstrably show that this is wrong.

Tell me, how does Rand snap Verin and Alanna's connections to saidar like threads if those women have strengths of 50 or more? Why does it take 13 women to shield any man when three would do a bang up job? Why were circles of three and four sent after the Forsaken instead of groups of two? Why does Lews Therin say he can handle any three women if they aren't Forsaken strength?

You know, there are really lots of quotes like this, but this incessant raving about the bell curve is tiresome. To contradict most of the quotes in the series based on this idea is insane. There's no proof that the curve clusters around the mean, and plenty of proof that Aes Sedai are only a fraction of Rand/Lanfear's strength. The peak is clearly at a lower level. And yes, I do think that a third of women are weaker than Daigian because Egwene herself says that most novices she's picked up are very weak - a fact that you continuously cite as irrelevant despite it being there in black and white.
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This message last edited by Sidious on 18/12/2009 at 04:33:19 AM
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8259 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1596 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1585 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1390 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1507 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1076 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1484 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1365 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1070 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1143 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 751 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1191 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1268 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1235 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1143 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1023 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1112 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1228 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 971 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 924 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 931 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 981 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1240 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1191 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1099 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1036 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1030 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 710 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1131 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1160 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1021 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1044 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 976 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1156 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1231 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1137 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1052 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1061 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1120 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1040 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1018 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 955 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1060 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1191 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1091 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 631 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1166 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1118 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1344 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1184 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1068 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 587 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1147 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1335 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1086 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1025 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1055 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1061 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 987 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 949 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 637 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 606 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1114 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 921 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 864 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 953 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 977 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1001 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 962 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 879 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 922 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 903 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 930 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 934 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 973 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1454 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 937 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 842 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 880 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 934 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 898 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 836 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 903 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 969 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 905 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 983 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1004 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1066 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1004 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 981 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 908 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 925 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 542 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 884 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 935 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 844 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1024 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 946 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 918 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 868 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 948 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 917 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 969 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 922 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 904 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 879 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 926 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 983 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 974 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 950 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 929 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 961 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 939 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 953 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 954 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 943 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 972 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1055 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1176 Views

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