Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - Edit 1
Before modification by Sidious at 18/12/2009 04:32:59 AM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.
Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.
First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.
But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.
The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.
For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?
Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.
First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.
But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.
The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.
For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?
Because the series doesn't support it at all. For all the ranting and raving, there is no evidence that two women together are as powerful as the strongest channeler possible. But there are many quotes that theoretically and demonstrably show that this is wrong.
Tell me, how does Rand snap Verin and Alanna's connections to saidar like threads if those women have strengths of 50 or more? Why does it take 13 women to shield any man when three would do a bang up job? Why were circles of three and four sent after the Forsaken instead of groups of two? Why does Lews Therin say he can handle any three women if they aren't Forsaken strength?
You know, there are really lots of quotes like this, but this is incessant raving about the bell curve is tiresome. To contradict most of the quotes in the series based on this idea is insane. There's no proof that curve clusters around the mean, and plenty of proof that Aes Sedai are only a fraction of Rand/Lanfear's strength. The peak is clearly at a lower level. And yes, I do think that a third of women are weaker than Daigian because Egwene herself says that most novices she's picked up are very weak - a fact that you continuously cite as irrelevant despite it being there in black and white.