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You also forget something. Phelix Send a noteboard - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.

Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.

First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.

But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.

The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.

For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?


RJ's quote about the bell curve applies to all potential channelers on the planet. Sparkers, Wilders, Learners, Wise Ones, Wind Finders, damane, sul'dam, and any other channeler you can find on the planet.

The Aes Sedai do not recruit. They only accept women who come to them, or who are found by a wandering Aes Sedai who happens to want to take the girl back to the Tower. They also, until recently, rejected women as too old, no matter their strength or potential.

So, the White Tower takes novices from a small pool of potential channelers (only from the Westlands), makes it even smaller by not actively recruiting, then makes it even smaller by creating rules that exclude women as too old, and expels women who fail certain tests.

All in all, it's not surprising that the Aes Sedai in the Tower do not accurately reflect the proper distribution of channelers across the population.

Now, one would expect the damane to accurately reflect the bell curve, as well as the Wise Ones, because they actively make sure to catch every potential channeler, either as a sul'dam, damane, or apprentice. You'll also note that the damane so far have all been seen as being stronger than the average Aes Sedai, IIRC.
I was Phelix on wotmania, I will always be Phelix in the "real" world, and now I am Phelix on RAFO.

You will make all kinds of mistakes; but as long as you are generous and true and also fierce you cannot hurt the world or even seriously distress her.- Churchill

*MySmiley*
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 9371 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1910 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1849 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1657 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1742 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1327 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1947 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1629 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1315 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1365 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 845 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1451 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1507 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1480 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1410 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1259 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1321 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1465 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1233 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 1142 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 1160 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1222 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1505 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1441 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1399 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1278 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1264 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 818 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1366 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1391 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1237 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1266 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1221 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1405 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1507 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1370 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1278 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1301 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1341 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1301 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1237 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1209 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1294 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1447 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1330 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 736 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1453 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1374 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1581 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1422 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1308 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 679 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1381 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1574 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1329 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1325 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1290 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1283 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1248 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1217 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 747 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 692 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1338 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 1153 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 1099 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1207 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1209 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1225 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1213 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 1125 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 1163 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 1136 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1192 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1213 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1217 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1704 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1201 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 1107 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 1134 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1191 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 1115 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 1087 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 1194 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1199 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 1099 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1284 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1241 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1306 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1268 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1237 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 1129 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1162 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 645 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 1123 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1160 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 1085 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1274 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1193 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 1149 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 1111 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1184 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 1149 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1207 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 1148 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 1150 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 1111 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1184 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1224 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1228 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1243 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1205 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1229 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1176 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1178 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1209 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1196 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1229 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1304 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1411 Views

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