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You also forget something. Phelix Send a noteboard - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.

Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.

First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.

But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.

The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.

For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?


RJ's quote about the bell curve applies to all potential channelers on the planet. Sparkers, Wilders, Learners, Wise Ones, Wind Finders, damane, sul'dam, and any other channeler you can find on the planet.

The Aes Sedai do not recruit. They only accept women who come to them, or who are found by a wandering Aes Sedai who happens to want to take the girl back to the Tower. They also, until recently, rejected women as too old, no matter their strength or potential.

So, the White Tower takes novices from a small pool of potential channelers (only from the Westlands), makes it even smaller by not actively recruiting, then makes it even smaller by creating rules that exclude women as too old, and expels women who fail certain tests.

All in all, it's not surprising that the Aes Sedai in the Tower do not accurately reflect the proper distribution of channelers across the population.

Now, one would expect the damane to accurately reflect the bell curve, as well as the Wise Ones, because they actively make sure to catch every potential channeler, either as a sul'dam, damane, or apprentice. You'll also note that the damane so far have all been seen as being stronger than the average Aes Sedai, IIRC.
I was Phelix on wotmania, I will always be Phelix in the "real" world, and now I am Phelix on RAFO.

You will make all kinds of mistakes; but as long as you are generous and true and also fierce you cannot hurt the world or even seriously distress her.- Churchill

*MySmiley*
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8502 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1698 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1663 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1478 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1577 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1155 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1568 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1457 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1159 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1194 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 774 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1268 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1339 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1308 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1225 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1092 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1158 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1307 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 1052 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 995 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 996 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 1057 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1344 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1273 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1181 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1112 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1108 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 743 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1215 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1231 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1070 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1117 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 1055 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1233 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1316 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1206 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1131 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1140 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1194 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1124 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1079 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 1026 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1124 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1283 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1169 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 659 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1216 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1188 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1418 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1266 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1143 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 615 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1223 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1411 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1163 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1101 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1134 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1135 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 1062 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 1030 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 667 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 638 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1190 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 992 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 933 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 1026 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 1050 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1077 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 1049 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 957 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 985 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 976 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 1004 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 1014 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 1050 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1522 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 1021 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 916 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 967 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 1016 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 971 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 908 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 979 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 1037 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 948 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 1064 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1080 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1146 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1084 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 1068 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 978 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 1000 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 567 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 959 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 1005 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 921 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1099 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 1002 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 997 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 944 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 1017 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 991 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 1045 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 986 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 987 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 952 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 1006 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 1054 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 1051 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 1032 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 1008 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 1044 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 1018 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 1022 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 1032 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 1016 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 1042 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1098 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1242 Views

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