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You also forget something. Phelix Send a noteboard - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM
First, RJ told us Egwene and co. come one step below the Forsaken and Moiraine and the strongest Aes Sedai a step below them. You completely ignore this by placing Moiraine at 25, Egwene at 40 and Moghedien at 65! A wider range of numbers called one below the other I've never seen.

Second, by placing the strongest AS at 25 and the weakest at 10, you raise some startling implications from RJ's comments on the Bell Curve.

First, 62.5% of channelers (male or female) are strong enough to be Aes Sedai by modern standards. By your placement, this means 37.5% of women are weaker than Daigian.

But if we take a bell curve distribution to the strength range of 1 to 100, this means strength range 90 to 100 will also consist of roughly 37.5% of channelers. The only way to avoid this is to have a skewed bell curve, which RJ has said the distribution is not.

The worst, though, is the assumption made that the 21 levels are not evenly distributed. Most of the lists you and Sidious come up with have AS from 10-25, with increments of 1 since we know there are a load of levels among the AS. However, there are sudden jumps when you go from Moiraine to Cadsuane and then Caddy to Egwene, and then on to the Forsaken. On exactly what basis are you making the assumption that the 21 levels are not equally distributed in the strength range of 1 to 100? Especially with a bell curve distribution showing that RJ gave a load of thought to this.

For gods sake, if the range of a bell curve is 1 to 100, then the variable will cluster around the mean, meaning the highest number of women will be of strength 50. This is a mathematical fact, not a matter of perspective. And yet, you want to place someone of as rare strength as Egwene below this point and also all of the Aes Sedai?


RJ's quote about the bell curve applies to all potential channelers on the planet. Sparkers, Wilders, Learners, Wise Ones, Wind Finders, damane, sul'dam, and any other channeler you can find on the planet.

The Aes Sedai do not recruit. They only accept women who come to them, or who are found by a wandering Aes Sedai who happens to want to take the girl back to the Tower. They also, until recently, rejected women as too old, no matter their strength or potential.

So, the White Tower takes novices from a small pool of potential channelers (only from the Westlands), makes it even smaller by not actively recruiting, then makes it even smaller by creating rules that exclude women as too old, and expels women who fail certain tests.

All in all, it's not surprising that the Aes Sedai in the Tower do not accurately reflect the proper distribution of channelers across the population.

Now, one would expect the damane to accurately reflect the bell curve, as well as the Wise Ones, because they actively make sure to catch every potential channeler, either as a sul'dam, damane, or apprentice. You'll also note that the damane so far have all been seen as being stronger than the average Aes Sedai, IIRC.
I was Phelix on wotmania, I will always be Phelix in the "real" world, and now I am Phelix on RAFO.

You will make all kinds of mistakes; but as long as you are generous and true and also fierce you cannot hurt the world or even seriously distress her.- Churchill

*MySmiley*
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The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8261 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1598 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1586 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1392 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1509 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1078 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1486 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1367 Views
Indeed, and not only that - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1071 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1145 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 751 Views
why? - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1193 Views
Re: why? - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1268 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1236 Views
and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1145 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1024 Views
Re: and yet RJ does - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1115 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1230 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 973 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 926 Views
Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 933 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 981 Views
Re: Meh... - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1242 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1193 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1101 Views
Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1038 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1032 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 710 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1133 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1162 Views
the obvious answer - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1023 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1045 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 978 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1158 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1233 Views
I think all the main characters were forced - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1139 Views
agreed! - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1054 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1063 Views
What? Where? *NM* - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1121 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1042 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1020 Views
Don't links amplify stength? - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 957 Views
The opposite, actually. - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1061 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1191 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1091 Views
Agreed! *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 631 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1168 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1119 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1346 Views
uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1184 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1070 Views
yup *NM* - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 587 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1149 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1337 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1088 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1027 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1056 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1063 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 989 Views
agreed - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 951 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 637 Views
I'll check *NM* - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 606 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1116 Views
No people just interpret things differently - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 921 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 865 Views
You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 955 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 978 Views
Re: You also forget something. - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1003 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 963 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 880 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 924 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 905 Views
I cannot. That's the point... - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 932 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 935 Views
Sorry, but no... - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 975 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1456 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 937 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 844 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 881 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 936 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 898 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 838 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 905 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 971 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 905 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 985 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1006 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1068 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1005 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 983 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 910 Views
Explain one thing to me... - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 926 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 542 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 885 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 937 Views
Can you provide the quote? - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 845 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1025 Views
which is also suspect - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 948 Views
No it's not - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 919 Views
we're in agreement - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 870 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 950 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 917 Views
I don't think it's a lie - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 971 Views
Agreed - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 924 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 905 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 880 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 928 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 985 Views
I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 976 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 950 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 931 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 963 Views
Why are you entertaining this? - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 940 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 954 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 956 Views
of course it's about skill - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 945 Views
Not it isn't! - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 974 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1055 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1178 Views

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