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Re: I see you didn't vote for Hobo. Isaac Send a noteboard - 10/09/2013 08:17:30 PM

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View original post1) how is that you "know" I am allied to Hobo?


View original postThat's what this entire thing was about testing. You've claimed that:


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View original postRoleclaims are pointless as they only hurt us, none of us can possibly trust each other today, and I'm not asking for trust, I am just pointing out that since neither of us can realistically be Russian that this 1-0-1-2 case can be safely tested by voting for either Rana or Hobo, that's all I'm asking from you.


View original postWell, I did exactly as you asked, though obviously not as you desired. So let's safely test this hypothesis. After all:

I specifically asked for Rangrande, not Hobo, make no pretense here, it was established you and Hobo weren't aligned based on yesterday, your accusing him again proved nothing and this was explained.


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View original postfor me killing either one is the same.


View original postYou're hoping that I'll vote for ranagrande and Hobo can suddenly hammer him, but that's not going to happen because you're operating under a severe misunderstanding of who's allied with whom.

Well, hate to point this out but Hobo voted for Ranangrande half an hour before your post. So.... yeah. I was looking from each of you for a strong indicator that you werne't allied to anyone. You and hobo were ruled, so while Rana could have voted for anyone but me and proved half, you and Hobo had the option to vote for anyone but each other (or me) which was Rana to actually prove something, You refused, are dancing bizarre contradictory nonsense about why, and he just popped in and said, "Sure, rather FT but rana". He complied with a simple request. He might be scum, you might think he's allied to me and/or backstabbing me, but my only interest for the moment was eliminating him as part of a duo, which he's done. You haven't, rana hasn't.


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View original post2) how is that you know he is a traitor?


View original postBecause I've figured out what this game's setup is. It's a beautiful setup, incidentally, I'm quite impressed. I really thought you'd figured it out long before I had, you had access to the relevant information faster than I did, or should have had, but whichever one of your allies knew about the traitor apparently didn't trust you enough to share with the group before he died.

So, your big thesis here that concludes with absolute certainty that I must be scum, must be allied to Hobo, and must be getting stabbed in the back by him is now proven by him doing the one single thing that absolutely makes that impossible. Changes nothing for me though.


View original postReally, since you're convinced that Hobo is your ally and that I'm not a Russian, that leaves very few possibilities as to what you think this game's setup is. Either four Japanese, three Italians and two Russians, with Ranagrande as the only remaining mafia opponent, or four Japanese, three Italians and a Russian Serial Killer with both Rana and I being townies. Both of these options are blatantly inbalanced. So I suspect you believe there are four Japanese, four Italians and a Russian Serial Killer, with me as the remaining Italian and ranagrande as another Russian (because there were still three Night Kills). That's slightly more reasonable, but it still leaves a Russian mafia with half the power of the other two.

Why not 4 Italians and 2 Japanese and 2 Russians? Why not 3-2-2, or 3-2-1, why is that unbalanced? A 2-some could have a RB and a mole, and be stronger than a vanilla 3-some. You're oversimplifying your analysis to raw numbers. Also bad assumptions, as I've mentioned, I never took Berg's "we need 12" as 12 exactly but 12+ so these various must add to 12 scenarios don't really hit my bell even if I didn't think this was straight addition. Your whole framework for balance ignores roles and ignores that multi-faction rarely is balanced - What's fair about a 10-3-1 Town-Scum-SK for the SK? - and that in multi-faction it doesn't really matter anyway.

And again your house of cards just got torched by Hobo so this is kind of a redundant line of reasoning.


View original postHow about I speculate a bit, and you decide for yourself how well I figured out this game.


View original postOn Night 1, the Italians killed Taiga, the Japanese killed Artsapat and the Russians killed Praziquantel.

Well the victims of the Japanese appear to have been stabbed or cut, by Katanas specifically in one case, and the Italians shot people. Praz (italian) was stabbed, presumably by a Katana, whereas Artsapat (Italian) was strangled. So I'm guessing you've got that backwards.


View original postOn Night 2, the Italians killed Dannymac, the Japanese killed Fox and Ravens and the Russians killed Sacrilicious Toast.

That I'd agree with, beyond my dubiousness about assuming the IJR neat little package arrangement.


View original postThere was a traitor in every mafia. Do you think it's a coincidence that on both Nights, the Japanese killed Italians? That the Italians never killed a Japanese? The Russians break this pattern because they lucked out and the traitor on their team died early on. That also explains why they're currently the strongest mafia.

Consideirng one of our two dead Japanese has a gun wound and is lying on the ground next to a dead Italian he obviously stabbed I'm not buying you premise that the Italians never killed a Japanese.


View original postAnd whoever the traitor was, they would also know that there was a traitor in their team. But obviously whoever it was on your team didn't want to give away that information, probably not to let the traitor know he was on to them.


View original postWhat do you think, coincidence?

I think you're fixated on the equivalent of a geocentric model of the Universe. There's several blatant incorrect lines of reasoning there.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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