I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
- 1699 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
- 531 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
- 864 Views
Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
- 815 Views
Re: Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
- 893 Views
plus...
15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
- 788 Views
Voting Record
18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
- 802 Views
Moving along
15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
- 1038 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
- 466 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
- 841 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
- 943 Views
my current suspects
15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
- 935 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
- 487 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
- 892 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
- 718 Views
I can
18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
- 810 Views
Nay
18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
- 846 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
- 852 Views
We need to come up with a plan
19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
- 838 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
- 813 Views
? is the logical target
19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
- 786 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
- 840 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
- 770 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
- 815 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
- 766 Views
I think I have a plan
20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
- 947 Views
...erm...
20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
- 945 Views
Crypto tricks
20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
- 853 Views
Some thoughts...
19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
- 759 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
- 787 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
- 885 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
- 823 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
- 802 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
- 774 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
- 769 Views
That is correct. *NM*
21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
- 488 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
- 795 Views
Okay
21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
- 806 Views
Re: Okay
21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
- 770 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
- 497 Views
horsefeathers
21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
- 742 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
- 511 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM*
21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
- 455 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
- 925 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
- 441 Views
A couple Questions
21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
- 814 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
- 856 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
- 781 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
- 773 Views
what now?
22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
- 707 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
- 848 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
- 816 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
- 842 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
- 797 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
- 867 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
- 564 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
- 854 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
- 812 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
- 857 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
- 859 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
- 798 Views
eh, what the heck
24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
- 702 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
- 505 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
- 373 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
- 691 Views
right, mine
24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
- 854 Views
Re: right, mine
24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
- 802 Views
EPWOP
24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
- 810 Views
Re: EPWOP
24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
- 839 Views
Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
- 775 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
- 858 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
- 706 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
- 781 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
- 907 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
- 770 Views
EBWOP
25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
- 764 Views
It's probably also worth noting
25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
- 809 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
- 835 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
- 874 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
- 742 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
- 792 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
- 827 Views
not to mention...
26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
- 802 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
- 523 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
- 952 Views
Somebody want to hammer?
26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
- 826 Views