Active Users:1155 Time:23/11/2024 03:25:14 AM
Moving along Isaac Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Reply to message
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1699 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 531 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 864 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 817 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 893 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 788 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 826 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 514 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 802 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 513 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 563 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 777 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1039 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 466 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 550 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 518 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 784 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 874 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 916 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 842 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 943 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 732 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 539 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 532 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 806 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 936 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 487 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 823 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 504 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 842 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 789 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 916 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 859 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 796 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 970 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 832 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 886 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 862 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 893 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 720 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 812 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 853 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 760 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 847 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 532 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 483 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 488 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 496 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 803 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 831 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 842 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 852 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 757 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 782 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 763 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 484 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 839 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 813 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 787 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 843 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 817 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 822 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 841 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 771 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 816 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 766 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 949 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 946 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 854 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 729 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 728 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 787 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 737 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 796 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 829 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 711 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 467 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 772 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 822 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 663 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 800 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 885 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 675 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 836 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 760 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 787 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 513 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 798 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 814 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 886 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 824 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 804 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 806 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 498 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 776 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 769 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 488 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 852 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 498 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 797 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 808 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 789 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 772 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 497 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 744 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 511 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 478 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 488 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 455 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 780 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 703 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 501 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 568 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 864 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 927 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 441 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 542 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 734 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 799 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 796 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 815 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 813 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 758 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 858 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 791 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 975 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 824 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 783 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 834 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 789 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 783 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 749 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 774 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 779 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 818 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 813 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 801 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 708 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 848 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 796 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 817 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 843 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 799 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 867 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 479 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 854 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 828 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 807 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 849 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 821 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 461 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1053 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 822 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 814 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 794 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 858 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 745 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 861 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 800 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 702 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 625 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 373 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 691 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1347 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 781 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 855 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 803 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 812 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 840 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 775 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 859 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 781 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 795 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 982 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 753 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 918 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 707 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 708 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 783 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 854 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 804 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 829 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 909 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 772 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 764 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 809 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 842 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 785 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 835 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 876 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 744 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 792 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 827 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 796 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 767 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 804 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 816 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1027 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 523 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 819 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 746 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 525 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 828 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 907 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 833 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 495 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 774 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 481 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 502 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 828 Views

Reply to Message