Yes, what Xi did in HK was an own goal on the Taiwan issue. The wolf warrior approach and rhetoric served only to spread and then crystallize the idea of a Taiwanese identity. Prior to the crackdown in HK, there was a fairly widespread feeling on the island of identifying as Chinese, not even close to a majority but far from negligible.

ETA: I should probably throw in something about the ADIZ incursions, naval patrols circumnavigating the island, and other acts of intimidation conducted by the Chinese military in their efforts to trying to cow the Taiwanese. A lengthy naval blockade rather than an outright invasion is probably their best bet if things turn ugly. And the Taiwanese know it. Again, Xi’s actions strengthen a distinct sense of identity for the people on the island. Not at all unlike what happened in Ukraine.

And yet Trump is basically conducting a shakedown on Taiwan. What’s more, he’s trying to appoint someone who’s saying the US shouldn’t defend the island should there be an invasion. The messages they’re sending and the clear lack of thinking through what sort of consequences would come from it are unbelievable.

Are you familiar with Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden, and Geraud Neema? If not, check out chinaglobalsouth.com. It’ll be right up your alley, and available in Arabic and French to boot. They have a fantastic site and are a great bunch of guys. Out of curiosity, do you go to China or various African countries for work? Do everything from an office in Belgium? Trading company? Shipping? Skip all that if it’s too personal.

Or use sentiment analysis software to help shape perceptions that are to the government’s liking. I’m not even kidding. That’s a real thing. Those wacky Chinese come up with the damnedest things.

I’m actually aware of this. The previously mentioned site had a podcast covering it. The thing with Pakistan is who will they turn to if they dump China? Who will help them? I’m drawing a blank. To me, a more likely result is concessions made to China for debt relief or forgiveness. It’ll parallel Hambantota, with a PLAN facility at Gwadar or mining rights in Balochistan. Something along those lines.

Yes, but again the Chinese will seek concessions before offering relief or debt renegotiations.

True enough! There is pushback from patriots who want nothing to do with what’s basically neocolonialism, or at least it is in some instances. And then there are some who want no part in an ideological clash, just a desire to see their country develop and do better.

As far as I’m concerned, Cold War 2.0 is already underway. It’s going to be more about technology and trade than tanks or ICBMs, though. And that’s part of why I’m in favor of tariffs on China in the multilateral way I mentioned earlier. It’s the West versus Mordor, made up of the 4 countries you’d guess. Somebody is going to win the AI jackpot in the not too distant future. It need only be really good machine learning, not super intelligence. The possibility of the latter is not something I’d rule out from happening in my lifetime, though. Having read some of MIC25, I believe the CCP actually hopes to engineer a Great Divergence 2.0, with China leaving everyone else in the dust.

ETA: Just for clarification, machine learning is already being used for medical and scientific research purposes. The goal is to create it in a sufficiently capable and sophisticated form so as to be more or less self-directed, doing what the human mind cannot. The upshot being rapid advances in technology. I don’t want you to think I’m talking about LLMs and the like.