View original postI suppose they didn't expect Taiwan to grow so much more progressive so quickly - and the Taiwanese have seen what happened to Hong Kong so have zero desire to go the same way...
Yes, what Xi did in HK was an own goal on the Taiwan issue. The wolf warrior approach and rhetoric served only to spread and then crystallize the idea of a Taiwanese identity. Prior to the crackdown in HK, there was a fairly widespread feeling of identifying as Chinese, not even close to a majority but far from negligible.
View original postBut yeah, between Taiwan's immense value to the global computer chips industry and the equally immense share of global trade that passes through the strait between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland and would be heavily impacted in the event of any war, even before any boycotts or sanctions come into play, China has to know that the second they pull the trigger on Taiwan, they're launching the biggest economic crisis in decades if not almost a century - perhaps big enough to put their own regime at risk. Even if they successfully conquered Taiwan, the price might still be steeper than they're willing to pay. Or so I hope, anyway...
And yet Trump is basically conducting a shakedown on Taiwan. What’s more, he’s trying to appoint someone who’s saying the US shouldn’t defend the island should there be an invasion. The messages they’re sending and the clear lack of thinking through what sort of consequences would come from it are unbelievable.
View original postNo doubt it's true I'm looking at it from a Western mindset, but I do also know enough about developing countries (my job involves business in Africa, to a large extent imports from China in fact) to be very aware of the corruption and extremely poor decision-making you're talking about.
Are you familiar with Eric Olander, Cobus van Staden, and Geraud Neema? If not, check out chinaglobalsouth.com. It’ll be right up your alley, and available in Arabic and French to boot. They have a fantastic site and are a great bunch of guys. Out of curiosity, do you go to China or various African countries for work? Do everything from an office in Belgium? Trading company? Shipping? Skip all that if it’s too personal.
View original postHowever, many of the countries involved are still democracies, even if they're often rather flawed ones, or even when they're not, still the government has to keep an eye on public opinion to some extent.
Or use sentiment analysis software to help shape perceptions that are to the government’s liking. I’m not even kidding. That’s a real thing. Those wacky Chinese come up with the damnedest things.
View original postLike if we go back to the Pakistan example, the big issue there now is the national electricity network - the Chinese built power plants at extortionate conditions, the national utility companies have no choice than to charge absurdly high prices for electricity and hamper the wider economy, except now more and more individuals and companies are going off the grid and getting their power from, ironically, solar panels imported from China. That's basically the whole country being confronted on a daily basis with the consequences of the bad deals some people in their recent governments have made with China - I do think that's going to have an impact and push Pakistan away from China, yes, if they don't soften those terms.
I’m actually aware of this. The previously mentioned site had a podcast covering it. The thing with Pakistan is who will they turn to if they dump China? Who will help them? I’m drawing a blank. To me, a more likely result is concessions made to China for debt relief or forgiveness. It’ll parallel Hambantota, with a PLAN facility at Gwadar or mining rights in Balochistan. Something along those lines.
View original postIn other countries, maybe things haven't gone quite that sour yet and opinions of China are still more positive, but I think in the longer term it'll go the same way unless they change their approach, because so many of those Chinese investments, whether they're actually useful or not, are more expensive than the receiving government could actually afford.
Yes, but again the Chinese will seek concessions before offering relief or debt renegotiations.
View original postYes - they aren't short of actually correct arguments to use, before even needing to make up anything. But that doesn't necessarily make those countries that much closer to China either.
True enough! There is pushback from patriots who want nothing to do with what’s basically neocolonialism, or at least it is in some instances. And then there are some who want no part in an ideological clash, just a desire to see their country develop and do better.
View original postYeah, I heard that before. Of course it could also turn out more like the Cold War - but today's world is far more globalized and inter-dependent than it was in the 20th century, so most countries have far more to lose from such a thing. One shouldn't overestimate how rationally governments really behave, of course, but still...
As far as I’m concerned, Cold War 2.0 is already underway. It’s going to be more about technology and trade than tanks or ICBMs, though. It’s the West versus Mordor, made up of the 4 countries you’d guess. Somebody is going to win the AI jackpot in the not too distant future. It need only be really good machine learning, not super intelligence. The possibility of the latter is not something I’d rule out from happening in my lifetime, though. Having read some of MIC25, I believe the CCP actually hopes to engineer a Great Divergence 2.0, with China leaving everyone else in the dust.
