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I haven't cast a vote. Joel Send a noteboard - 30/01/2011 02:02:11 AM
You might, as usual, want to ease up a bit on the generalizations - I'm not really sure if it's worse to over-generalize in the discussion of countries that you know little about, or in the discussion of countries you know a lot about since you lived in them for three decades and all, but it's a bad idea in either case. Believe it or not, people in the Middle-East have brains and can think for themselves. They can do other things besides be oppressed by secular dictators or slavishly follow Sayyid Qutb's corpse.

For one thing, I don't really have one, but for another, I've seen no evidence democracy has a dog in this fight. I've seen lots of violence from both sides, sectarian murder in the last month and nationalist murder in the past few years, but nothing to indicate Mubarak is likely to be replaced any time soon except by a regime as authoritarian, repressive, brutal and violent as his, if not more so. In between terrorising foreigners, torching government buildings and hurling homemade bombs at cops, what reform policies have been suggested? IF (and I'm not convinced either way, though I don't like the little I've seen) the only difference Mubarak represents is brutality and sectarian murder on a smaller scale, yes, that's preferrable to simply expanding the scope of brutality and sectarian murder--which is why Egyptian law gave its president emergency powers to impose martial law. It's ironic and telling that people who feel that enacting that power was or is unjustified are justifying it so well right now.

Sure, Mid-Easterners are intelligent human beings; most of Iran is, much good as it does them under the mullahs. Unfortunately, the commentaries and analysis I've seen on the riots in Egypt (and, really, when you start burning buildings, terrorizing foreigners and throwing bombs you've crossed the line from "protester" to "rioter" ) all agree on two points:

1) Part of why Mubarak's lasted so long is because there are so few rivals who could supplant him and

2) If his government does topple it's almost a given the new government will be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.

That in turn implies several more things to me:

1) Even if everyone votes freely, Sayyid Qutbs philosophical heirs will win the majority,

2) Their hold on power will be tenuous and, consequently,

3) Their need to maintain control combined with the militant sectarianism and xenophobia Sayyid Qutb insitutionalized in the Muslim Brotherhood will mean repression and violence will not only continue, but be directed against anyone and everyone deemed dangerously Western/infidel/heretical.

Sure, not all Egyptians follow his corpse, but enough of them do to cause his imprisonment, just as the danger of him causing violent revolution was enough to get him executed. If you want to argue Egypt should've given Qutb and his student Iman Al Zawahiri fair trials before imprisoning them, I'll agree, but if you want to argue they'd make better Egyptian leaders than Mubarak simply because they can muster an electoral plurality I can't. Give me a reason to believe Mubarak isn't just the Shah all over again--in EVERY sense--and I might endorse what's happening in Egypt. The scale and extent of violence argue against that, as does the seemingly unanimous analyst view that removing Mubarak would simply install a government consisting of people who think violence against seemingly everyone not an orthodox (in their eyes) male Muslim is not only right but necessary.

Do NOT, however, make the mistake of assuming that because I don't endores Hitlers invasion of Poland I support Stalin. It's not my country and I have no right or ability to do anything but watch things play out on their own, but I've seen this scenario too many times to expect some miraculously new end game. Would I love to see a new government close down Mubaraks political prisons, end persecution, torture and murder? Unquestionably. Do I expect the Muslim Brotherhood government everyone agrees would replace Mubarak to do anything except torture decadent Westerners, indecent women, infidels and heretics in those same prisons when they aren't just brutalized or executed on the spot? Their "martyred" teachers distaste for "individual liberty" along with much else he saw in my country argues for exactly that, and that Al Zawahiri would be able to come home along with many of his friends. Democracy without individual liberty is patently absurd, so, no, this doesn't strike me as democracy vs. dictatorship, but rather as a competition over who should control the dictatorship the majority wants. Again, I don't have a dog in that fight.
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If anyone's looking for up-to-date info on what's going on in Egypt - 28/01/2011 08:08:31 PM 624 Views
I've been following it on the BBC website. - 28/01/2011 09:49:47 PM 358 Views
Clarify: Democracy fans should favor the protesters because they have more violent thugs,right? - 28/01/2011 11:37:48 PM 475 Views
and socialism fans should favor the violent dicator since he can bring order and subsidies - 29/01/2011 12:16:37 AM 342 Views
He mainly seems to bring close diplomatic ties to the US and alternatives to the Muslim Brotherhood - 29/01/2011 12:59:48 AM 494 Views
You might want to do a quick check on the political situation in Egypt at this time. - 29/01/2011 11:37:02 AM 407 Views
I've done a quick one; it makes me question whether government by the protesters would be better. - 29/01/2011 11:44:10 PM 378 Views
They're not saying "We want to rule". - 30/01/2011 01:26:03 AM 389 Views
SOMEONE is going to rule. - 30/01/2011 02:16:43 AM 412 Views
It's a fairly simple matter, really. - 29/01/2011 11:52:41 AM 417 Views
The trouble with free elections is: They're free. - 29/01/2011 11:53:22 PM 327 Views
A vote for dictatorship and against democracy it is. Just checking. - 30/01/2011 12:08:41 AM 367 Views
I haven't cast a vote. - 30/01/2011 02:02:11 AM 347 Views
Not one that counts no, but still. - 30/01/2011 01:11:59 PM 814 Views
None of any kind. - 31/01/2011 12:10:07 AM 388 Views
Since I'm clearly a glutton for punishment... - 01/02/2011 06:49:38 PM 738 Views
Re: Since I'm clearly a glutton for punishment... - 04/02/2011 11:38:10 PM 502 Views
You're not seriously expecting them to do their revolution American Revolution-style, are you? - 29/01/2011 11:28:31 AM 392 Views
British Colonialism wasn't a walk in the park - 30/01/2011 03:53:58 AM 347 Views
Comparatively speaking, yes, it really was. Or at least in the US - not always so much in Asia. - 30/01/2011 10:42:53 AM 336 Views
Re: Comparatively speaking, yes, it really was. Or at least in the US - not always so much in Asia. - 30/01/2011 02:32:52 PM 391 Views
You can't be serious. - 30/01/2011 03:07:18 PM 326 Views
Pretty serious - 30/01/2011 04:52:24 PM 482 Views
Re: Pretty serious - 30/01/2011 05:11:50 PM 376 Views
This is ridicolous - 30/01/2011 05:31:31 PM 436 Views
you forget that it was supposdely thier own citizens the British were abusing. - 31/01/2011 12:39:33 AM 429 Views
Sure, but organized into hostile armies. A rather different matter, that. *NM* - 31/01/2011 09:46:25 PM 149 Views
true - 31/01/2011 10:04:38 PM 339 Views
Your comparison is very odd - 30/01/2011 04:38:16 PM 419 Views
Why? - 30/01/2011 05:02:47 PM 369 Views
I dont know if this will help you understand what is going on there - 30/01/2011 02:45:41 AM 363 Views
I never called anyone an animal. - 30/01/2011 04:50:12 AM 451 Views
Yikes indeed - 29/01/2011 03:57:25 AM 388 Views
There seems to be some big misconceptions about the Egyption crisis - 31/01/2011 11:52:37 PM 624 Views

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