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Yes, that is the danger. Libby Send a noteboard - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.

A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.


That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.

Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...


That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
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Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war? - 24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM 1073 Views
I was wondering when something would be posted about this - 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM 775 Views
haha. I love that mental image - 24/05/2010 02:51:53 PM 683 Views
But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore? - 24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM 710 Views
that might well be a good point - 24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM 681 Views
Very interesting point. That is a wild card. *NM* - 24/05/2010 03:27:53 PM 242 Views
The explaination I have heard... - 24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM 714 Views
I don't know... - 24/05/2010 09:49:25 PM 634 Views
No, because China doesn't want us in the region. - 25/05/2010 12:20:47 AM 672 Views
Um, wasn't that pretty much always understood? - 25/05/2010 12:08:12 AM 629 Views
yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation - 24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM 680 Views
If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it. - 24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM 701 Views
mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest. - 24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM 696 Views
Wikipedia is your friend. - 24/05/2010 03:08:33 PM 858 Views
ah mk. Thanks!! - 24/05/2010 04:39:49 PM 643 Views
Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything. - 24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM 651 Views
Korea is directly in our sphere of influence - 24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM 604 Views
I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense. - 24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM 756 Views
In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang. - 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM 582 Views
Oh yuck - there are far better ways. - 24/05/2010 06:01:44 PM 622 Views
yah... - 24/05/2010 06:27:37 PM 658 Views
Re: yah... - 24/05/2010 06:34:13 PM 642 Views
That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma. - 24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM 605 Views
I don't think the US could, if China decided to get involved - 24/05/2010 08:45:23 PM 588 Views
A part of me says just get it over with - 24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM 589 Views
I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing. - 24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM 748 Views
I agree - 24/05/2010 04:17:19 PM 760 Views
Pretty much agree with all of that. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:17:27 PM 271 Views
I'm trying not to. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM 243 Views
This. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:28:20 PM 268 Views
I understand - 24/05/2010 06:00:09 PM 599 Views
Yes - 24/05/2010 06:05:25 PM 608 Views
i agree - 24/05/2010 06:28:37 PM 630 Views
This has disaster written all over it *NM* - 24/05/2010 08:39:37 PM 256 Views
Technically, weren't we always? - 24/05/2010 08:51:29 PM 605 Views
Exactly. - 25/05/2010 12:07:32 AM 655 Views
I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM* - 24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM 255 Views
No one wants to resume the Korean War. - 24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM 714 Views
China does. - 25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM 656 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM 686 Views
Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes. - 25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM 680 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM 668 Views
North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding? - 25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM 637 Views
The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis. - 25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM 657 Views
You are missing the main point. - 25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM 696 Views
I'm not saying it's nothing new. - 25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM 674 Views
Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger. - 25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM 612 Views
Yes, that is the danger. - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM 756 Views
Fair enough. I misunderstood your position before. - 26/05/2010 12:31:52 AM 641 Views

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