Active Users:1125 Time:23/11/2024 04:59:36 AM
Yes, that is the danger. Libby Send a noteboard - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.

A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.


That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.

Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...


That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
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Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war? - 24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM 994 Views
I was wondering when something would be posted about this - 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM 691 Views
haha. I love that mental image - 24/05/2010 02:51:53 PM 612 Views
But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore? - 24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM 628 Views
that might well be a good point - 24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM 587 Views
Very interesting point. That is a wild card. *NM* - 24/05/2010 03:27:53 PM 215 Views
The explaination I have heard... - 24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM 652 Views
I don't know... - 24/05/2010 09:49:25 PM 549 Views
No, because China doesn't want us in the region. - 25/05/2010 12:20:47 AM 595 Views
Um, wasn't that pretty much always understood? - 25/05/2010 12:08:12 AM 558 Views
yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation - 24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM 604 Views
If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it. - 24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM 624 Views
mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest. - 24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM 610 Views
Wikipedia is your friend. - 24/05/2010 03:08:33 PM 776 Views
ah mk. Thanks!! - 24/05/2010 04:39:49 PM 565 Views
Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything. - 24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM 576 Views
Korea is directly in our sphere of influence - 24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM 521 Views
I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense. - 24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM 669 Views
In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang. - 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM 510 Views
Oh yuck - there are far better ways. - 24/05/2010 06:01:44 PM 544 Views
yah... - 24/05/2010 06:27:37 PM 581 Views
Re: yah... - 24/05/2010 06:34:13 PM 557 Views
That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma. - 24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM 527 Views
I don't think the US could, if China decided to get involved - 24/05/2010 08:45:23 PM 511 Views
A part of me says just get it over with - 24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM 519 Views
I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing. - 24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM 664 Views
I agree - 24/05/2010 04:17:19 PM 674 Views
Pretty much agree with all of that. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:17:27 PM 242 Views
I'm trying not to. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM 214 Views
This. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:28:20 PM 237 Views
I understand - 24/05/2010 06:00:09 PM 514 Views
Yes - 24/05/2010 06:05:25 PM 528 Views
i agree - 24/05/2010 06:28:37 PM 553 Views
This has disaster written all over it *NM* - 24/05/2010 08:39:37 PM 229 Views
Technically, weren't we always? - 24/05/2010 08:51:29 PM 521 Views
Exactly. - 25/05/2010 12:07:32 AM 576 Views
I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM* - 24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM 231 Views
No one wants to resume the Korean War. - 24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM 633 Views
China does. - 25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM 583 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM 613 Views
Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes. - 25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM 608 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM 595 Views
North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding? - 25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM 570 Views
The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis. - 25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM 587 Views
You are missing the main point. - 25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM 625 Views
I'm not saying it's nothing new. - 25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM 601 Views
Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger. - 25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM 535 Views
Yes, that is the danger. - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM 681 Views
Fair enough. I misunderstood your position before. - 26/05/2010 12:31:52 AM 560 Views

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