The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.
That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.
That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.
That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.
Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...
That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war?
24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM
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I was wondering when something would be posted about this
24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM
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But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore?
24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM
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that might well be a good point
24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM
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The explaination I have heard...
24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM
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Kim made one of his rare trips outside of North Korea about two weeks ago.
26/05/2010 07:49:18 AM
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yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation
24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM
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If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it.
24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM
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mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest.
24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM
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Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything.
24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM
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Korea is directly in our sphere of influence
24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM
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I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense.
24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM
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In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang.
24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM
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That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma.
24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM
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A part of me says just get it over with
24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM
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I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing.
24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM
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I'm trying not to. *NM*
24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM
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I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM*
24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM
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No one wants to resume the Korean War.
24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM
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China does.
25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM
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No, they don't
25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM
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Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes.
25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM
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No, they don't
25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM
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I'm saying the Cold War isn't over, since it was never about capitalism vs. communism to begin.
25/05/2010 01:41:28 AM
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North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding?
25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM
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The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis.
25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM
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You are missing the main point.
25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM
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I'm not saying it's nothing new.
25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM
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Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger.
25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM
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Yes, that is the danger.
26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
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Yes, I've been watching with morbid curiosity and a little sick feeling in my stomach.
25/05/2010 02:47:53 AM
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