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Re: A reply... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 03/01/2010 08:38:07 PM


No I don't agree. He quotes merely state what percentage of women are strong enough for the shawl, not what the actual value is attached to these women. It's an error to state that the one logically leads to the other.

In the same interview, but in another reply, he said:
In the Age of Legends, between 2 and 3% of people had some ability, following a bell curve distribution in strength.
Clearly, strength, and not strength levels, follow a bell curve distribution. This means the X-axis for this curve is strength and the y axis is the number of people who have that strength. RJ has said this flat out, and I fail to see the point in debating this.


Except RJ only put raw values on channeler strength in a few rare quotes in the series, none of which can be supported by your theory. By your own contention, Egwene must have maximum strength if the quote about her raw power is correct, and yet you deflect by saying that Aviendha must be wrong. I can't say much to that except that I disagree.

But he said it was a distribution of strength! He never gave us raw values, but that statement makes it plain that the raw values of strength are in the X-axis. That is the mathematical intent of his statement. How can you disagree with that?

My point was that RJ may have used the term loosely, which is not unlikely when there were two strength lists in his series. How could he apply a bell curve and then add women above Nynaeve later?

Why ever not?

I think it was probably gaussian but more about prevalence rather than actual strength.

What does this even mean?
It is about the prevalence of actual strength! The two are connected, not mutually exclusive! Honestly...

But this is obviously where we disagree because you place absolute values here which I think is wrong. The x-axis is not raw strength, it's channeler level. Daigian might be at level 15 (or whatever). The woman on the other side of the curve who is stronger than 62.5% of women is perhaps a level 7 e.g. Cadsuane. The level is what balances it out not raw strength.

Well, if the x-axis is channeler level, why didn't RJ say channeler placement in the 21 levels follows a bell curve? Why did he say channeler strength follows a bell curve distribution?

Except that Elayne gets proved right several times. Despite no one having a true sample, there are very few Kin, Wise Ones new novices with this strength. Galina insinuates that only Therava and Someryn are stronger than her, which is further evidence.

She says Therava and Someryn are stronger. That says nothing about how many equal her, does it?
We also have Kiruna's respectful placement of the Wise Ones. She says quite a few of them are very worthy. This was a sample of 90, which included Sorilea, Amys, Melanie and maybe even Tamela and Viendre.

Which will have to remain a theory forever, because no channeling sample supports this I'm afraid.

But RJ's own strictures on OP strength distribution do support this, and do not support your placement of the average at 20! Heck, even mathematics disagrees with your placement.

In both cases it causes a problem.

Not really.

Except for one important point : out of all of these skewed samples nothing suggests that a hive of strength exists somewhere to balance out all this weakness. While I acknowledge that Egwene's group is weaker than it should be, it's important to realise that we have quotes that suggest that women of Moiraine's strength and above are rare.

These quotes all come from Aes Sedai, for whom the statement is indeed true. Notice that with the Wise Ones, no such comments exist. Melaine says she is stronger than most Aes Sedai, then says nothing at all about being similarly remarkable among the Wise Ones. That honor is reserved for Aviendha.

Well I don't agree, but okay then.

Okay.

Egwene was doped with forkroot when this occured. It obviously doesn't count.

Okay. Then why does Silviana say that two women guarding her at night is a mere caution? In the middle of the night, with the forkroot worn out, Egwene would be at full strength. Yet, Barasine is apparently sufficient to hold her. How?

Moiraine says that maybe those two can handle one of the Forsaken - Graendal, Lanfear, Semirhage or Rahvin. I don't know why Egwene's evidence would be any weaker than Moiraine's. Moiraine thought that the weakest Forsaken is stronger than any ten women in the Tower.

She thought that in book one. Since then, she has fought Aginor, and seen Lanfear's strength in the Rings! She obviously knows more about Forsaken strength at that point than Egwene!

I don't think there's any evidence that stronger channelers can work at greater distances. We've seen Fedwin and his bar, so according to Taim you should be able to channel at great distances no matter what your strength.

What do you mean no evidence? Here's the quote...
At this distance, there were limits to what he could do. In fact, it was about as far as he could do anything, really, without angreal or sa ‘angreal. Very likely that was why the women were channeling one lightning bolt at a time, one explosion; if he was at his boundary, they must be stretching theirs.

If Egwene is roughly half as strong as Rand, how the hell is she making fifty foot high explosions of earth at a distance that Rand himself says is the very edge of his ability?

Except that they say they're weaker than him, which is difficult to counter with vague theories. Still, I don't think they were linked. They took turns - one rested while one channeled.

Who said they were stronger? I only contend that linked, they were able to match him and an angreal. And of they were not linked, things are clearly wonky here. Rand himself says he's stronger, and can reach farther. That they match him says a lot.

Except it doesn't explain many huge problems, like how Rand thinks he can handle any three women unless they're Forsaken strength. Or how most strong males can fight off six Aes Sedai. Those are just some of this biggest glitches you have to defend.

But those glitches are problems for your list too. Apparently, four women too weak to be Accepted can more or less match the effects Rand can have. They make Gateways as large as him.
By that, any three Average Aes Sedai should be able to match Rand, if not shield him (Since that requires a much greater advantage).
Whether you say average AS is 20 or 40, three should be able to match him. Yet, one has to be Semrihage for him to feel worried, it seems. Why?

Linking provides an advantage. We discussed this in the other post. Egwene says that most Aes Sedai can only make a gateway that they can put their arm through. Suddenly when they link they can Travel - clearly it's a huge advantage.

Then why can't three linked women tackle Rand?

It's almost all we have in direct comparison.

We have RJ's quote saying Forsaken-Egwene-Moiraine. My list supports that.

We don't know. The point is that Nynaeve couldn't channel unless she was angry, so her potential was a mystery for a great deal of time.

Estimating potential and strength are passive abilities. Nyn doesn't have to channel for them to know.

I don't think so, but I'd accept the quote if you have it. Either way, Siuan tells Nynaeve she's as strong as any woman in the Tower but not Egwene in the same company? Sounds odd.

Here are two quotes...
There was a long silence from the other side of the wall. “How could you stop it? You may be as strong as any of them, now, but neither one of us knows enough yet to stop even one Aes Sedai from shielding us from the Source, and there are dozens of them here.”


And...
The Amyrlin was strength personified. For all her own raw power, the woman on the other side of the table had the knowledge and experience to wind her around a spindle.

She thinks that she could never challenge Moghedien, so I don't quite agree.

She says nothing of the sort. She says Moggy could have surprised her, and only Nynaeve can match the Forsaken. Neither says she can never challenge Moghedien.
By your own list, Egwene is at 50 and Moggy at 60. She can easily challenge Moggy, though she will have no surety of success.
Moggy herself felt that a far from full potential Elayne was trouble.

All the characters have been forced, but damane are special.

So? That's my point. You can state nothing conclusive about the relative strengths of Egwene and Nynaeve. Egwene was damane, Nynaeve was at the cleansing, which makes her even more special.
Reply to message
One Power strength - critical analysis of previous posts and some further ideas - 03/01/2010 07:59:24 AM 2342 Views
I support your view, with maybe a few comments to add... - 03/01/2010 02:58:05 PM 1055 Views
Re: I support your view, with maybe a few comments to add... - 03/01/2010 04:37:56 PM 870 Views
where is this phantom quote of Egwene "not standing a chance" - 03/01/2010 05:20:20 PM 756 Views
Here's the real quote - 03/01/2010 05:38:59 PM 815 Views
Well that quote perfectly illustrates the skewed way in which you interpret the evidence... - 03/01/2010 06:18:22 PM 778 Views
I also think the quote is specific - 03/01/2010 06:34:38 PM 781 Views
Skill not Strength is the key that and the potential that another FS was with her - 03/01/2010 06:51:46 PM 797 Views
Bah - 03/01/2010 07:13:01 PM 740 Views
Who's arguing that? - 03/01/2010 07:34:21 PM 715 Views
What ARE you arguing? - 03/01/2010 07:43:06 PM 782 Views
Precisely... - 03/01/2010 07:56:24 PM 727 Views
Just like Asmos killer - 03/01/2010 08:00:21 PM 802 Views
That there is far more to strength in her quote! - 03/01/2010 08:05:20 PM 678 Views
Re: That there is far more to strength in her quote! - 04/01/2010 09:40:05 AM 876 Views
and where do I ever say Elayne is only a small step below Moghedien? - 04/01/2010 03:08:37 PM 775 Views
You more than imply it with your own list - 04/01/2010 03:39:06 PM 784 Views
and you are fixated on simple strength to the exclusion of everything else - 04/01/2010 05:05:54 PM 729 Views
Re: and you are fixated on simple strength to the exclusion of everything else - 04/01/2010 06:46:45 PM 1119 Views
there are no absolutes - 04/01/2010 08:49:46 PM 1174 Views
I agree with Darius Sedai. - 06/01/2010 07:49:10 PM 655 Views
- 03/01/2010 06:46:12 PM 803 Views
Calm down, please... - 03/01/2010 07:11:11 PM 873 Views
I'm not upset - 03/01/2010 07:33:00 PM 750 Views
Tiny Unimportant Objection to "Bell Curve" Point - 03/01/2010 03:09:55 PM 876 Views
Re: Tiny Unimportant Objection to "Bell Curve" Point - 03/01/2010 04:39:25 PM 782 Views
Which makes sense - 03/01/2010 05:15:24 PM 757 Views
Really? - 03/01/2010 06:09:22 PM 686 Views
All I'm saying is that information on the internet should - 04/01/2010 06:08:27 AM 715 Views
I've got a slightly revised opinion than my last post - 03/01/2010 05:16:39 PM 988 Views
Lanfear quote - 03/01/2010 05:37:50 PM 802 Views
Read RJ's quote again... - 03/01/2010 06:13:42 PM 716 Views
Nothing is perfect - 03/01/2010 06:33:44 PM 870 Views
Re: I've got a slightly revised opinion than my last post - 03/01/2010 06:31:09 PM 912 Views
It's actually not that complicated ... simple math actually - 03/01/2010 07:08:52 PM 785 Views
Yes, but to think that RJ put that much effort into it is improbable - 03/01/2010 07:19:13 PM 791 Views
I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 03/01/2010 07:56:17 PM 706 Views
Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 04/01/2010 09:50:38 AM 820 Views
Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 04/01/2010 03:26:10 PM 897 Views
Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 04/01/2010 03:52:19 PM 766 Views
You are talking out of both sides of your mouth - 04/01/2010 05:09:15 PM 717 Views
Dude - 04/01/2010 06:21:28 PM 671 Views
Dude, please go back to Fionwe's post - 04/01/2010 06:35:03 PM 712 Views
Re: Dude, please go back to Fionwe's post - 04/01/2010 06:49:42 PM 725 Views
Then how can you know? - 04/01/2010 08:17:46 PM 789 Views
A reply... - 03/01/2010 06:02:33 PM 718 Views
The Tower sample is skewed allright, but to the upper side of the strength range... - 03/01/2010 06:36:45 PM 853 Views
I agree - Aes Sedai are stronger in the Power - 03/01/2010 07:26:45 PM 918 Views
Re: A reply... - 03/01/2010 07:09:55 PM 847 Views
I think distance is related to Strength - 03/01/2010 07:21:46 PM 764 Views
Maybe, but to what conclusion? - 03/01/2010 07:29:39 PM 741 Views
OOps, missed part of the quote ... sorry about that! - 03/01/2010 07:59:20 PM 681 Views
Re: A reply... - 03/01/2010 08:38:07 PM 879 Views
Re: A reply... - 04/01/2010 10:10:13 AM 849 Views
So many double standards. - 04/01/2010 09:02:23 PM 768 Views
I agree with most of this - 03/01/2010 08:19:37 PM 853 Views
Re: I agree with most of this - 04/01/2010 10:19:12 AM 789 Views
amusing side note - 04/01/2010 05:22:39 AM 709 Views

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