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Re: A reply... Sidious Send a noteboard - 03/01/2010 07:09:55 PM

Well, I'm a biophysicist/cell biologist, and I can tell you that yes, in a normal situation, a bell curve is used for statistical analysis. Rarely would you see "bell curve distribution" used as a property. That is because in real life, you can never assume that all outliers are taken care of.
Take height for example... can we put 7 feet as the absolute maximum? What if someone an inch or so taller comes up? Also, all data points do not have a representation... any real bell curve is only going to be applied on the basis of a statistical sampling.

While all that is fine, this is an imagined world. RJ had the ability to set an upper and lower limit to channeling ability, and he did. Wen can safely say there can be no one stronger than Rand/Lanfear, because that was a restriction RJ himself applied.

Another thing is that when RJ says channeling strength follows a bell curve distribution, he's using the term as a property of channeling strength among humans. RJ did not sample his characters and do some math and find out that there was a bell curve distribution.

Instead, by authorial fiat, he has decreed that channeling strength follows a bell curve distribution. That means all his channelers in the series will fit into the bell curve.

Knowing that, you can rest assured that the average strength woman is half as strong as the strongest woman. Whether that strength is designated as 50 or 5000 or 4445543 doesn't make an ounce of difference. What matters is that mean strength is exactly half the maximum, and this is the commonest strength found in the population.


No I don't agree. He quotes merely state what percentage of women are strong enough for the shawl, not what the actual value is attached to these women. It's an error to state that the one logically leads to the other.

And this is not a statistical result, but actual fact because RJ never went through the process of sampling channeler strength and doing some math. He decided how the distribution would be and applied it.


Except RJ only put raw values on channeler strength in a few rare quotes in the series, none of which can be supported by your theory. By your own contention, Egwene must have maximum strength if the quote about her raw power is correct, and yet you deflect by saying that Aviendha must be wrong. I can't say much to that except that I disagree.

Well, when challenged, said poster came up with no proof. Search the net for "bell curve distribution". You'll find zero mentions of a non-normal bell curve distribution.
It may well be that they use the term bell curve locally. Meaning that in a given range, a curve follows the normal distribution, and then takes on a different shape. Needless to say, the whole curve cannot be called a bell curve.


My point was that RJ may have used the term loosely, which is not unlikely when there were two strength lists in his series. How could he apply a bell curve and then add women above Nynaeve later?

Lastly, if RJ meant some weird sort of bell curve, I don't see why he wouldn't have specified that.


I think it was probably gaussian but more about prevalence rather than actual strength.

Exactly! But you put Daigian at strength 10, and then ask us to belive the existence of many strength levels between 1 and this, as well that 37.5% of the population falls in this range. The implication of that last is that 37.5% of the population also lies in the range 90-100, which I hope you will agree with me is ridiculous.


But this is obviously where we disagree because you place absolute values here which I think is wrong. The x-axis is not raw strength, it's channeler level. Daigian might be at level 15 (or whatever). The woman on the other side of the curve who is stronger than 62.5% of women is perhaps a level 7 e.g. Cadsuane. The level is what balances it out not raw strength.

But Elayne bases her statement on her experience in the White Tower. Which is a vastly skewed sample. Whichever way you look at it, there need to be women stronger than Sheriam/Moiraine in a sample, yet the Tower provides none. It is indeed a vastly screwed sample.


Except that Elayne gets proved right several times. Despite no one having a true sample, there are very few Kin, Wise Ones new novices with this strength. Galina insinuates that only Therava and Someryn are stronger than her, which is further evidence.

For myself, I believe that Moiraine is actually a step above the peak of 50, and that peak is instead filled with women of around Anaiya's strength.


Which will have to remain a theory forever, because no channeling sample supports this I'm afraid.

We have absolutely no clue when the Bell Curve was decided upon. Before the first list? Between the first and the second? After? Speculating on this is useless.


In both cases it causes a problem.

This is what I've been saying all along. There has indeed been no true sample in the series, though the Wise Ones as a whole must come close, as must the Windfinders, since we can reaosnably assume both find all learners and definitely all sparkers.


Except for one important point : out of all of these skewed samples nothing suggests that a hive of strength exists somewhere to balance out all this weakness. While I acknowledge that Egwene's group is weaker than it should be, it's important to realise that we have quotes that suggest that women of Moiraine's strength and above are rare.

Siuan's case proves nothing about actual strength though. Put her at 55 or 60 and you'll still have the same kind of results.


Well I don't agree, but okay then.

I strongly doubt this. If she is indeed so much stronger, I fail to see how Silviana alone can hold her shield.
I think if you place Siuan at 1.25, Egwene should be at 1.75.


Egwene was doped with forkroot when this occured. It obviously doesn't count.

The same book has Moiraine stating that Egwene and Aviendha combined could overwhelm Lanfear or Graendal. Do you trust Egwene's word when she cannot even estimate Rand's strength, or Moiraine's, who has held a strong Forsaken and has also seen Lanfear and her strength in the Rings?

Moiraine says that maybe those two can handle one of the Forsaken - Graendal, Lanfear, Semirhage or Rahvin. I don't know why Egwene's evidence would be any weaker than Moiraine's. Moiraine thought that the weakest Forsaken is stronger than any ten women in the Tower.

Further, in tFoH, Rand says Egwene and Aviendha were working at a distance that he himself had to strain to work at. He thinks they must be straining even more than him, based on what Egwene told him.


I don't think there's any evidence that stronger channelers can work at greater distances. We've seen Fedwin and his bar, so according to Taim you should be able to channel at great distances no matter what your strength.

But consider this... Rand had an angreal, and was straining. Egwene and Avi were probably linked, and showed no more tiring than Rand. Does this mean they are weaker than him, or stronger than him? I'd say definitely the latter.


Except that they say they're weaker than him, which is difficult to counter with vague theories. Still, I don't think they were linked. They took turns - one rested while one channeled.

I'd personally say
Average Aes Sedai- 40
Average woman- 50
Siuan-55/60
Egwene-75
Nynaeve- 90
Lanfear- 100


Except it doesn't explain many huge problems, like how Rand thinks he can handle any three women unless they're Forsaken strength. Or how most strong males can fight off six Aes Sedai. Those are just some of this biggest glitches you have to defend.

There's a problem with this, though. As I showed in another thread, four women who are all too weak to even be tested for Accepted can nearly match the effects Rand can. Three Aes Sedai should definitely be able to, whatever scale you follow, even though they cannot shield him. This statement is in sharp contrast to that.


Linking provides an advantage. We discussed this in the other post. Egwene says that most Aes Sedai can only make a gateway that they can put their arm through. Suddenly when they link they can Travel - clearly it's a huge advantage.

Well, by that, Nynaeve should at least be twice as strong as Egwene, which is something even you disagree with. If you take it literally, it means Nynaeve should be thousand times as strong, which is ridiculous.

Whether you say 50 and 90 or 75 and 90, Moiraine's statement is pure bunkum.


It's almost all we have in direct comparison.

Actually, no. Siuan says Nynaeve is already as strong as most sisters in the Tower. Meaning where Egwene started at 0, Nynaeve was at 20 or 40, depending on which scale you follow.

We don't know. The point is that Nynaeve couldn't channel unless she was angry, so her potential was a mystery for a great deal of time.

Nope. Elayne says Egwene is as strong as any Aes Sedai.

I don't think so, but I'd accept the quote if you have it. Either way, Siuan tells Nynaeve she's as strong as any woman in the Tower but not Egwene in the same company? Sounds odd.

She was already stronger than either of them. It would be interesting to know if Egwene was pretty close to her potential by now. IF she was, she wasn't far below Moggy.

She thinks that she could never challenge Moghedien, so I don't quite agree.

That doesn't mean much. I cannot find the quote, but we are told that all three of them were forced, though Egwene's time with the Seanchan forced her the most. Egwene reached her potential remarkably fast. Elayne is yet to reach hers. Nynaeve may have, but she had a unique event like the Cleansing to speed her up. I doubt you can make any meaningful comparison.

All the characters have been forced, but damane are special.
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I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 03/01/2010 07:56:17 PM 708 Views
Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 04/01/2010 09:50:38 AM 822 Views
Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 04/01/2010 03:26:10 PM 897 Views
Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things! - 04/01/2010 03:52:19 PM 768 Views
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Re: A reply... - 03/01/2010 07:09:55 PM 848 Views
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