Re: I've got a slightly revised opinion than my last post
Sidious Send a noteboard - 03/01/2010 06:31:09 PM
By and large I think there is some kind of exponential increase in power as you go up the strength scale, for simplicity let's say power = level squared (thus a level 10 woman can channel 100 units). This would mean that a level 15 would channel 225 units and be more 2x stronger than a level 10. By the time you get to Lanfear you have 441.
Taking that further you can sub-segment each level (for simplicity sake let's use 4.41 per level for 100 levels). If you assume the Bell Curve is based on the original 21-level list you wind up with a M-M-M about level 11, or about 121 unit channeler, just about 28% of Lanfear. Knowing Daigian is very weak for AS, but still stronger than 37.5% we can place her in the Mid-High level 8 section (about 75 units) which also maps to Siuan falling to this level if you put her original strength at the top of level 14 or the bottom of level 15 (around 200 units).
Amys being close to Siuan is also around a 200 and Melaine maybe a 150, which could make Egwene as strong as 350 (which maps to Mid-level 19). That would make:
Egwne/Elayne = Mid level 19 (about 350)
Tamela/Viendra = High level 19 or Low Level 20 (365)
Moghedien = Mid Level 20 (about 375), Assuming Nyn was at 85% of Potential when she faced Mogs this makes sense, and since she's been a wilder for close to 10 years that does seem to fit
Mesaana = Low level 21 (400-415)
Nynaeve/Semirhage/Graendal = Mid Level 21 (Between 415-430)
Sharina/Alivia/Cyndane = High Level 21 (430-440)
Lanfear = Maximum Level 21 (441)
Taking that further you can sub-segment each level (for simplicity sake let's use 4.41 per level for 100 levels). If you assume the Bell Curve is based on the original 21-level list you wind up with a M-M-M about level 11, or about 121 unit channeler, just about 28% of Lanfear. Knowing Daigian is very weak for AS, but still stronger than 37.5% we can place her in the Mid-High level 8 section (about 75 units) which also maps to Siuan falling to this level if you put her original strength at the top of level 14 or the bottom of level 15 (around 200 units).
Amys being close to Siuan is also around a 200 and Melaine maybe a 150, which could make Egwene as strong as 350 (which maps to Mid-level 19). That would make:
Egwne/Elayne = Mid level 19 (about 350)
Tamela/Viendra = High level 19 or Low Level 20 (365)
Moghedien = Mid Level 20 (about 375), Assuming Nyn was at 85% of Potential when she faced Mogs this makes sense, and since she's been a wilder for close to 10 years that does seem to fit
Mesaana = Low level 21 (400-415)
Nynaeve/Semirhage/Graendal = Mid Level 21 (Between 415-430)
Sharina/Alivia/Cyndane = High Level 21 (430-440)
Lanfear = Maximum Level 21 (441)
This is all very complex or at least, detailed mathematics. I don't know why you're going to such an effort to work out ultra-precise values for all the channelers. Is this to fit in with a bell curve or something, because then you didn't really acknowledge my point about it being more about strength prevalence rather than true values.
Of course, I think it's wrong. If the strength levels are exponential it means that strength jumps more and more between levels, which is illogical. In fact, it shows very little common sense (I mean no insult, but for me it does). The Aes Sedai measure the strength of their peers. I don't see why a woman one level weaker than Moiraine e.g. Sheriam, would be relatively much weaker than a woman who is one level below her, because that is what you're suggesting. Secondly, there's no natural reason why there would be a larger gulf between Moiraine/Sheriam vs Sheriam/Verin. Considering strength gets even more rare as you get stronger, it makes no sense to say that the gaps become larger too - those two statistics work against one another. It's like having a curve of height, and suggesting that above the average the height of people suddenly starts to get larger between standard deviations, which is does not. The tallest man in the world is only an inch or two taller than the second tallest man - not two feet taller. I don't see a logical reason why the OP would be different.
This would map to Egwene/Avi combined in LOC being strong enough to overwhelm Lanfear (assuming they average to 75% of potential they would be about a 475 linked).
Which is a vast assumption because you have no idea where they stand. They could be at over 90% of their potential, or just more than half. That creates a huge difference. Not only that, but there is no reference to linking, and the statement is certainly not specific to Lanfear.
Nynaeve is obviously far closer to her total potential than the others (Much like Rand starts out far closer to his potential than Elayne), or she would never have been strong enough to face Moghendien so early on. Equally obvious is that she must be very close to the absolute maximum female strength. IMO Egwene and Elayne fall somewhere about 80% of the max with Moiraine about 45% and the majority of AS about 25% or less.
Or she's much stronger than Moghedien, which is almost certainly the case. Moghedien herself said that certain Forsaken in the AOL saw her as no threat and she destroyed them. That is direct evidence that she is much weaker than her peers and uses skilled backstabbing to undermine stronger people.
Questions/Comments on your post I have:
Since when is Melaine only an "average AS"? She comes right out in TGS and tells Aviendha that she is stronger than most AS ...
Since when is Melaine only an "average AS"? She comes right out in TGS and tells Aviendha that she is stronger than most AS ...
Maybe she's 1.1 or 1.2 compared to 1.25 for Siuan, who knows.
We also know from RJ that Elayne is one step lower than Forsaken level, by your contention that one step equates to a nearly 50% drop. And then there is another 50% drop before we get to a normal AS.
This is a quote that you only apply selectively. RJ said that Nynaeve is the highest level followed by Egwene/Elayne and then another step down to Moiraine. That step is obviously huge, because you ignore the Moiraine bit, and we know that Egwene is probably twice as strong as Moiraine if she can take Amys/Melaine together. Not only that, but there are people within these levels such as Cadsuane, Moghedien, Tamela, Bode and Viendre. It's a useless quote if you ask me - we already know there's a step between all those people.
In TSR Egwene was only a little stronger than Moiraine, and Elayne less than that when she is talking to Rand she notes that Moiriane would be "senseless" if she tried to hold as much of the OP as Egwene was, senseless, not burned out! Of course Rand, who at this point is already as strong as at least some of the Male FS by that point is many times stronger than Eg/El!
No, that's not the quote. Egwene says that she's holding more than Moiraine, not Elayne. The point is that Nynaeve is much stronger than this at this stage, a fact that Egwene refers to when dealing with a very powerful Rand.
And of course you've left out one of the most important quote...
Moiraine's assertion that Egwene and Aviendha combined could overwhelm Lanfear. And this is long before either of them could be anywhere near their Potential! If they were both only Potential 50 they wouldn't have been anywhere close to matching Lanfear, much less potentially strong enough to overwhelm her.
Moiraine's assertion that Egwene and Aviendha combined could overwhelm Lanfear. And this is long before either of them could be anywhere near their Potential! If they were both only Potential 50 they wouldn't have been anywhere close to matching Lanfear, much less potentially strong enough to overwhelm her.
But you don't know how far they are from their potential. Not only that but Moiraine says that maybe they could overwhelm either Rahvin, Semirhage, Graendal or Lanfear. Not Lanfear. Moiraine is merely guessing regarding Forsaken strength in this quote. If Egwene is as strong as Amys+Melaine, then she has the power of two strong AS at her fingertips. Add Aviendha and it's four Aes Sedai - very similar to Verin challenging Graendal at the cleansing.
My power ladder on 21 levels would look like this:
Level = Maximum units
1 = 1 *Morgase
2 = 4
3 = 9
4 = 16
5 = 25 *Sorilea
6 = 36
7 = 49
8 = 64 *Daigian
9 = 81 *Weak AS (Siuan, Kumira, Leane)
10 = 100 *Adeleas, Vandene, Carean, Saritha, Temaile
11 = 121 *Average AS/Mean/Median/Mode (Low end = Merilille or Elza, Higher end = Ispan, Falion)
12 = 144 *Lower end = Verin, Alanna, Mid range = Rafela, Masuri, Katerine, Higher end = Myrelle, Beonin, Morvrin, Carlinya)
13 = 169 *Sheriam, Pevara, Yukiri, Saerin *Aviendha at time of Lanfear comparison
14 = 196 *Strongest AS
15 = 225 *Egwene/Elayne at the time of the Rand comparison
16 = 256 *Kerene/Meilyn
17 = 289 *Cadsuane (Egwene at time of Lanfear comparison/Amys and Melaine comparison))
18 = 324 *Bode (?), Nicola (?)
19 = 361 *Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha/Metaara
20 = 400 *Tamela/Viendre/Moghedien
21 = 441 *Female FS/Nynaeve/Talaan/Sharina/Alivia/Sommeryn
Assuming you must be at least 70% as strong as someone to maintain a shield on them this also maps to 3 Sisters holding Semirhage and 2 for Egwene. And it's a 20% increase from Egwene to Nynaeve and a 25% increase up to Lanfear... candles and bonfires... also makes it clear why Nynaeve couldn't easily put a shield on Elayne... she's not enough stronger to simply overwhelm Elayne (IMO must have at least a 50% strength advantage to shield without effort, thus Egwene had no trouble with Sheriam, but may not have been able to weave a second shield strong enough to shield Moria at the same time).
Level = Maximum units
1 = 1 *Morgase
2 = 4
3 = 9
4 = 16
5 = 25 *Sorilea
6 = 36
7 = 49
8 = 64 *Daigian
9 = 81 *Weak AS (Siuan, Kumira, Leane)
10 = 100 *Adeleas, Vandene, Carean, Saritha, Temaile
11 = 121 *Average AS/Mean/Median/Mode (Low end = Merilille or Elza, Higher end = Ispan, Falion)
12 = 144 *Lower end = Verin, Alanna, Mid range = Rafela, Masuri, Katerine, Higher end = Myrelle, Beonin, Morvrin, Carlinya)
13 = 169 *Sheriam, Pevara, Yukiri, Saerin *Aviendha at time of Lanfear comparison
14 = 196 *Strongest AS
15 = 225 *Egwene/Elayne at the time of the Rand comparison
16 = 256 *Kerene/Meilyn
17 = 289 *Cadsuane (Egwene at time of Lanfear comparison/Amys and Melaine comparison))
18 = 324 *Bode (?), Nicola (?)
19 = 361 *Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha/Metaara
20 = 400 *Tamela/Viendre/Moghedien
21 = 441 *Female FS/Nynaeve/Talaan/Sharina/Alivia/Sommeryn
Assuming you must be at least 70% as strong as someone to maintain a shield on them this also maps to 3 Sisters holding Semirhage and 2 for Egwene. And it's a 20% increase from Egwene to Nynaeve and a 25% increase up to Lanfear... candles and bonfires... also makes it clear why Nynaeve couldn't easily put a shield on Elayne... she's not enough stronger to simply overwhelm Elayne (IMO must have at least a 50% strength advantage to shield without effort, thus Egwene had no trouble with Sheriam, but may not have been able to weave a second shield strong enough to shield Moria at the same time).
You have no proof regarding shielding strengths and a 50% law. Shielding is the worst proof for channeler strength. RJ himself said that there are shielding Talents, and that Nynaeve would barely pass the Aes Sedai test (whereas he said Egwene/Elayne would get it easily) due to her poor skills. In WH, Cadsuane says that Nynaeve is weak in everything except Healing. You also assume that Elayne was holding her maximum while weaving a mask of mirrors, which I find very unlikely. The whole scene reminds me of someone who tries to shield in outrage and fails because of poor technique.
Besides, you're not paying much attention to my other evidence regarding her strength progression compared to Egwene's, and other evidence. For instance, in FoH Elayne says he can't believe the amount of saidar that Nynaeve has pulled into herself - which is a good pointer that Elayne is not only much weaker at that point, but can't ever fathom becoming nearly as powerful. We've had Nynaeve/Moghedien/Lanfear burning bright like the sun with saidar, but never the same with Elayne/Egwene. Too many pointers I'm afraid.
to add to this RJ also claims there are "several levels of male strength above the female levels"
If we make an assumption that there are 25 levels of male strength that gives us Rand at 625 at full potential and places the average male at level 13 (units for men being 6.25 per sub-level for there to be 100 sub-levels; thus a 13 level man would be able to hold more Power than a 13 woman but in effect they are equals)
Level = Maximum units
22 = 484
23 = 529 Asmodean(?)
24 = 576 *Taim? Logain? Be'lal(?), Rhavin(?), Balthamel(?), Sammael(?)
25 = 625 Rand, Ishamael, Demandred, Aginor
This allows for Rand to have had room to grow, but still be strong enough to have faced off with some of the weaker males so early in the series (Basically I think Rand was at 85% of his Potential by the end of EoTW and probably about 95% by the time he went toe to toe with Sammael, likely he's very close to 100% by now.
If we make an assumption that there are 25 levels of male strength that gives us Rand at 625 at full potential and places the average male at level 13 (units for men being 6.25 per sub-level for there to be 100 sub-levels; thus a 13 level man would be able to hold more Power than a 13 woman but in effect they are equals)
Level = Maximum units
22 = 484
23 = 529 Asmodean(?)
24 = 576 *Taim? Logain? Be'lal(?), Rhavin(?), Balthamel(?), Sammael(?)
25 = 625 Rand, Ishamael, Demandred, Aginor
This allows for Rand to have had room to grow, but still be strong enough to have faced off with some of the weaker males so early in the series (Basically I think Rand was at 85% of his Potential by the end of EoTW and probably about 95% by the time he went toe to toe with Sammael, likely he's very close to 100% by now.
No I don't agree with this. My list is based on effective strength. Lanfear=Lews Therin. Males have a dexterity penalty despite higher raw strength. It equalizes everything.
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Fan of Lanfear
Fan of Lanfear
One Power strength - critical analysis of previous posts and some further ideas
03/01/2010 07:59:24 AM
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I support your view, with maybe a few comments to add...
03/01/2010 02:58:05 PM
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where is this phantom quote of Egwene "not standing a chance"
03/01/2010 05:20:20 PM
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Here's the real quote
03/01/2010 05:38:59 PM
- 815 Views
Well that quote perfectly illustrates the skewed way in which you interpret the evidence...
03/01/2010 06:18:22 PM
- 780 Views
I also think the quote is specific
03/01/2010 06:34:38 PM
- 781 Views
Skill not Strength is the key that and the potential that another FS was with her
03/01/2010 06:51:46 PM
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Bah
03/01/2010 07:13:01 PM
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Who's arguing that?
03/01/2010 07:34:21 PM
- 716 Views
What ARE you arguing?
03/01/2010 07:43:06 PM
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That there is far more to strength in her quote!
03/01/2010 08:05:20 PM
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Re: That there is far more to strength in her quote!
04/01/2010 09:40:05 AM
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and where do I ever say Elayne is only a small step below Moghedien?
04/01/2010 03:08:37 PM
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You more than imply it with your own list
04/01/2010 03:39:06 PM
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and you are fixated on simple strength to the exclusion of everything else
04/01/2010 05:05:54 PM
- 729 Views
Re: and you are fixated on simple strength to the exclusion of everything else
04/01/2010 06:46:45 PM
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Tiny Unimportant Objection to "Bell Curve" Point
03/01/2010 03:09:55 PM
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Re: Tiny Unimportant Objection to "Bell Curve" Point
03/01/2010 04:39:25 PM
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I've got a slightly revised opinion than my last post
03/01/2010 05:16:39 PM
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Re: I've got a slightly revised opinion than my last post
03/01/2010 06:31:09 PM
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It's actually not that complicated ... simple math actually
03/01/2010 07:08:52 PM
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Yes, but to think that RJ put that much effort into it is improbable
03/01/2010 07:19:13 PM
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I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things!
03/01/2010 07:56:17 PM
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Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things!
04/01/2010 09:50:38 AM
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Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things!
04/01/2010 03:26:10 PM
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Re: I'm being harsh with one poster who continues to mis-quote things!
04/01/2010 03:52:19 PM
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You are talking out of both sides of your mouth
04/01/2010 05:09:15 PM
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Dude
04/01/2010 06:21:28 PM
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Dude, please go back to Fionwe's post
04/01/2010 06:35:03 PM
- 712 Views
A reply...
03/01/2010 06:02:33 PM
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The Tower sample is skewed allright, but to the upper side of the strength range...
03/01/2010 06:36:45 PM
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Re: A reply...
03/01/2010 07:09:55 PM
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I think distance is related to Strength
03/01/2010 07:21:46 PM
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amusing side note
04/01/2010 05:22:39 AM
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Which is exactly what I envisage the AOL distribution to have looked like...
04/01/2010 07:03:51 AM
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Re: Which is exactly what I envisage the AOL distribution to have looked like...
04/01/2010 03:29:47 PM
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It may sound silly, but did you look at One Power values in the Wheel of Time CCG?
05/01/2010 12:56:41 AM
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Re: It may sound silly, but did you look at One Power values in the Wheel of Time CCG?
05/01/2010 07:33:21 AM
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