According to his Facebook updates, anyway.

This is very strange. Currently ToM stands at 82% complete. He didn't complete THE GATHERING STORM in its published state until June 2009 and it was published in October, only four months later. So he has another six to seven months to finish less than 20% of the book to ensure it comes out in 2010, which seems eminently achievable.

However, he has also been saying that ToM is much more complex because it is less concentrated and cohesive than TGS, and it may take longer. It's also possible that since he has to write AMoL itself virtually from scratch (he had a big head start with ToM from the material he'd written alongside TGS), Tor may choose to space out ToM so it's more or less halfway between the two other books. There's also the issue that Tor seem to want the second STORMLIGHT book, which is not written at all yet, out in 2011, so Brandon will have to work on that for part of next year as well.

At the same time, you'd imagine that Tor would want to capitalise on TGS' very encouraging reception and get the next book out before Christmas 2010 as well, and if it takes another 18-24 months before we see the honest-to-gosh-last-ever WoT book, then that's not too much of a problem.

I suspect we may, yet again, be in a situation where Sanderson is saying one thing but Tom Doherty may decide something else, and we will see ToM again regardless in 2010. However, AMoL in 2011 I would say is now right out, unless Brandon is going to abandon the second and third STORMLIGHT books to concentrate on it to the exclusion of everything else.