Let me start out by stating the various facts that we know for certain:

1. OP Strength follows a Bell Curve
2. Men are in general stronger than women
3. Lanfear is the strongest woman
4. Rand is the strongest man
5. Egwene is about as strong as Amys and Melaine combined
6. Daigian is the weakest AS
7. Siuan is now less than 50% of her original strength, but still strong enough to be AS
8. 37.5% of Channelers do not have enough strength to qualify as AS

Assumptions I've made:

1. There is one Bell Curve of distribution, but male and female strength have different scales (balanced by dexterity)... I'm trying to square effective and raw strength measures
2. There are 100 levels (just made the math easier)
3. Linking has a 10-15% penalty on raw strength

Okay so here we go...


Looking at a Bell Curve from 1-100 it's mathematical fact that 50 is the mean-median-mode. What we don't know is the unit of measure between each level on the scale. I've made an attempt to figure out how this could work and I think I've come somewhat close...

If we assume that each level for women allows for a woman to draw approximately 4 "units of saidar". Knowing that a man with the same effective strength also has more raw strength I applied a 25% increase to each "unit of saidin", thus each level for men adds 5 rather than 4. That would make our scale 4-400 for women and 5-500 for men, with Lanfear at 400 being as effective as Rand at 500. In effect we now have a 250 unit man and a 200 unit woman as the respective mean-median-mode yet both root back to 50 on the 100 point scale.

What does that leave us for levels?

If we assume Moiraine is a 50 (200), then it would in fact mean that in order to match Rand it would take 3 women of her strength to be roughly the raw power equivalent to the strongest male. It also squares with Siuan losing more than half of her overall strength and still remaining strong enough to be AS (if she lost 60% she would be about an 80 unit woman and probably right at the cusp of AS minimum).

Egwene would fall at about 320 (effective level 80), more than half Rand in Raw power, but linked with another woman her strength only a little stronger than him, close enough that he could still win a direct confrontation and shielding him would be an uphill battle. Also, linked with Romanda and Lelaine (200 each) still not enough stronger than a FS level male to be 100% certain of victory. Aviendha's assertion that Egwene is as strong as Amy's and Melaine combined is pretty close here if Amys is a 192 (level 48 ) and Melaine a 152 (level 38 ) she's pretty close if not 100% accurate.

Where does that place the "average AS", or even the majority of AS?

I'd say modern AS standards are low enough that a level 18 woman (Daigian) probably represents the lowest, but Level 20 being the more likely "minimum" ... which would be about where Siuan falls now if she lost 60% of her original strength.

Obviously we know that the majority of AS fall below the ranks of Melaine, so I'd venture the guess that 85% or more AS are between level 20 and level 35 ( 80-140) ... this matches up with comments about 13 weakest sisters could handle Rand as they would be more than 2x his raw strength... and even 6 weak sisters could probably maintain a shield on him once it was woven. And it still maps nicely to the 3 needed to hold Semirhage and 2 for Egwene.

So where do the Forsaken fall you ask? Well, on a Bell Curve they should all fall in the top few percent of available strength... which with units of measure added in, there are enough differences to account for the various levels and to account for the lack of outright fear in the top rungs.

Moghedien is clearly the weakest so I'd call her a 93 (372)

Asmodean is probably the weakest male and thus less effective than some of the stronger women I'd say he's a 95 (475)

Mesaana could be also be a 95 (380)

Be'lal/Balthamel seem to be the next males on the list probably 96 (480) or Mesaana could fall here (384)

Semirhage, Sammael, and Rhavin could be 97 (388 and 485) Nynaeve probably fits here.

Graendal and Aginor at 98 (392 and 490) and likely Sharina

Cyndane (Alivia) and Demandred are at 99 (396 and 495)

Lanfear/Ishamael and Rand at 100 (400 and 500)