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Several more things... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 11:26:19 PM

One: Why would the Tower restrict themselves to the middle? They won't stop anyone who is too strong from joining them. But they do stop people who are too weak from joining them. 37.5% of all channelers, in fact.

They don't stop stronger women. Stronger women are obviously rarer, and as we know, just one woman of Cadsuane's strength has come in the last six hundred years.
The truth is that Sharina isn't representative of the majority of channelers who are never found. For every one Sharina that is found, there are hundreds of Kin or other women who could learn, who are WEAKER than the average Aes Sedai. There are only 6 women stronger than Nynaeve, but there are thousands of female channelers. So people of that level are simply very rare, and VERY far above the average woman in strength.

Of course Sharina isn't representative of the majority of channelers out there! What is it in my model that makes you think any such thing?
A representative of the channeler out there is probably one of the older Novices who will definitely be Aes Sedai, but who isn't strong enough to make the Aes Sedai jump through hoops whooping in joy.
There is no sensible reason why the White Tower would restrict stronger channelers from joining them. The reason that Cadsuane is the strongest modern channeler, is because a woman of her strength is exceedingly rare. Not because the Tower are deliberately excluding stronger channelers. But they are deliberately excluding weaker channelers.

Who said it was deliberate? I said that it just so happens that the Tower has rarely seen someone stronger than Moiraine in the past thousand years. Doesn't mean women stronger than Moiraine are common. To the contrary, they keep getting rarer the farther up you move away from her.
I challenge you to provide a mechanism by which stronger channelers are excluded from the Tower.

The mechanism of plot convenience?
No, logic says someone like Cadsuane is far above average strength.

And that is exactly what I'm saying with my model too. If you put Cadsuane at strength 65, she is a pretty rare person. While the calculation is too difficult for me to carry out quickly, given the large number of channelers we're talking about (say 20,000 women distributed over a bell curve), I'd say that the difference in strength between Daigian and a woman of strength 50 would have to be less than one standard deviation to allow for 37.5% of women to be below her.
I'd argue that Caduane would lie in a similar position above 50, making her rare indeed. As rare as Daigian, in fact, who is uniquely weak in the weighted subset of the Tower, and still pretty rare in all the channeling population. Women like Morghase or Lanfear are further than even two standard deviations from the mean. 99% of the population falls withing 2 standard deviations, and Lanfear, Morghase, and some of the stronger Forsaken represent that last one percent, that vanishingly rare species of a very strong or very weak channeler.
Two:

Even if, as you suggest, Moiraine is close to average strength, that means that Moiraine is above 50 in strength. And since we know that Egwene is stronger than Moiraine and Melaine combined, that means Egwene must be at 100 strength or more.

Where do we know this from? For god's sake, Silviana, a woman weaker than Moiraine, can shield Egwene alone.
In battle, Egwene may well be able to tackle both Moiraine and Melaine. But they should be able to shield her easily.
That means Egwene is stronger than the strongest woman, Lanfear, who is at 100. How do you explain that in your quirky model?

I don't see why Egwene has to be stronger than Lanfear, sorry.
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The One Power Bell Curve: Proof that it is not centered on 50% of the strongest channeler's strength - 18/12/2009 08:37:55 AM 1315 Views
I always thought the curve was one sided - 18/12/2009 01:17:32 PM 725 Views
I would say that your sample is flawed. - 18/12/2009 05:02:02 PM 805 Views
well said *NM* - 18/12/2009 05:12:40 PM 378 Views
It doesn't matter... - 18/12/2009 10:02:38 PM 658 Views
But, it sort of does. - 18/12/2009 10:43:08 PM 707 Views
So you're saying that no modern Aes Sedai are even of average strength? - 18/12/2009 10:51:01 PM 785 Views
Are you sure it's the same bell curve from the AoL? - 18/12/2009 11:11:19 PM 749 Views
The Tower is restricted to the middle... - 18/12/2009 05:35:03 PM 872 Views
Two things... - 18/12/2009 09:28:25 PM 718 Views
The culling theory... - 18/12/2009 09:36:34 PM 648 Views
The culling theory applies to the ENTIRE population, not just Aes Sedai... - 18/12/2009 09:42:31 PM 772 Views
Yes, but Aes Sedai take it to a new level... - 18/12/2009 09:48:59 PM 834 Views
Re: Yes, but Aes Sedai take it to a new level... - 18/12/2009 10:06:15 PM 639 Views
Several more things... - 18/12/2009 11:26:19 PM 816 Views
You don't understand your own model... - 18/12/2009 11:38:05 PM 825 Views
So RJ was wrong about Bell Curve distribution? - 19/12/2009 06:03:24 PM 733 Views
Re: So RJ was wrong about Bell Curve distribution? - 19/12/2009 06:10:52 PM 690 Views
Its simple really... - 19/12/2009 06:15:23 PM 703 Views
Age-Related Sample Bias - 18/12/2009 06:41:03 PM 674 Views
A thought that occured to me, and I'd like your opinion... - 18/12/2009 07:38:29 PM 671 Views
Well Sharina isn't a sparker and she's the strongest AS - 18/12/2009 07:57:17 PM 676 Views
Yes... - 18/12/2009 08:01:57 PM 766 Views
Is it just my bad memory or is one of the wondergirls not a sparker? - 18/12/2009 10:12:59 PM 663 Views
I think it's just a bad memory... - 18/12/2009 10:19:25 PM 656 Views
Easier sulution, and real example. - 18/12/2009 10:03:20 PM 710 Views
And that is indeed the solution I feel most comfortable with... - 18/12/2009 10:08:40 PM 686 Views
Re: And that is indeed the solution I feel most comfortable with... - 19/12/2009 11:39:31 AM 923 Views
Agree, but a little more curvy is better - 19/12/2009 11:17:16 PM 615 Views
*facepalm* - 18/12/2009 10:13:16 PM 712 Views
That's just the normalized value graphed on a log scale. - 19/12/2009 11:20:41 PM 671 Views
Dude, Seriously? - 18/12/2009 10:19:25 PM 710 Views
Indeed, and that's why I propose that... - 18/12/2009 10:31:23 PM 689 Views
Yes, "Bell Curve" does not mean Gausian. Or normal distribution. - 19/12/2009 11:24:10 PM 670 Views
It does to RJ - 20/12/2009 03:12:30 PM 756 Views
Yes, "Bell Curve" does not mean Gausian. Or normal distribution. - 19/12/2009 11:24:11 PM 644 Views
That's because outliers in IQ tests are excluded form the curve. *NM* - 18/12/2009 11:31:23 PM 399 Views
Really?!?! then what is the definition of a IQ of 200? - 19/12/2009 11:28:18 PM 984 Views
You can have IQ's above that... - 20/12/2009 05:09:44 AM 695 Views
I said that in the other post and was half torn to pieces *NM* - 19/12/2009 11:38:25 AM 348 Views
Eh. Ignore the IQ value and draw it on a linear weight scale - 19/12/2009 11:26:23 PM 661 Views
Re: The One Power Bell Curve: Proof that it is not centered on 50% of the strongest channeler's stre - 19/12/2009 06:02:34 PM 628 Views
I like this idea - 20/12/2009 04:01:28 PM 835 Views
Accidental Post *NM* - 20/12/2009 07:11:09 PM 395 Views
Mathmatically this is very close to the system I proposed in another thread - 27/12/2009 01:23:51 AM 634 Views
Re: The One Power Bell Curve: - 27/12/2009 10:05:33 PM 777 Views
What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? - 27/12/2009 10:28:13 PM 984 Views
Re: What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? - 28/12/2009 03:19:14 PM 678 Views
Re: What makes you think Alviarin is "middling"? - 28/12/2009 03:30:44 PM 876 Views

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