Active Users:1184 Time:19/12/2024 10:29:25 AM
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! BlackAdder Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM
If you don't care what I think, then you shouldn't be debating with me! :P

:P

Considering the tower has ~1000 AS, and going by normal distribution, there will be 68% of AS within one standard deviation.

The normal distribution encompasses all women according to RJ, not just women in the Tower or women strong enough to be admitted in the Tower.

Yes, true, but I think if you take a subset from a bell curve, that subset will also have the characteristics of a bell curve.

Women like Sorilea and Morghase can never be Aes Sedai, but they must be considered in the bell curve. Meaning that in your range, we need values below 2000 to get any accurate values.

See what I just said about subsets. If that is wrong, then you are right.

Second, if the strongest possible woman has an effective strength of 25000 units (which is true, since RJ said that effectively, the strongest woman equals the strongest man), and the weakest 100 (or one or 20, take your pick), then the mean will be the median of these values.

That means, if we assume 3,000 units is the Tower mean,

I see no reason to assume such a ridiculous value for the mean. It violates the central feature of a normal distribution that the mean equals the median. And the median of the range 2000 to 25000 is most certainly not 3000!

Why not? The median is just the person in the middle, not necessarily the middle of the range. For example, in the following set of numbers:

5, 20, 500, 1000, 5,000

500 is the median. True, in a bell curve, mean=median=mode, so you could have a distribution like this:

10, 20, 30, 40, 40, 60, 80

mean = median = mode = 40

Note that the middle of the range between 10 and 80 is 45.

then 68% will be within one SD of that. The SD will be whatever strength level accounts for 34% of AS greater than the mean (or 34% less than the mean), going in sequential order of strength.

Again, you assume female channeler=Aes Sedai. You're also working from a very weird assumption for the value of the mean that is mathematically insupportable.

See above.
I frankly don't see why the standard deviation is being dragged into this at all. Whatever the standard deviation turns out to be for this range of 2k-25k, the median and the mean of the distribution will be 13500.

Not necessarily.
Let's just assume that that the standard deviation in the tower is 500 units.

I haven't done the calcualtions, but on what basis is this assumed? Further, why is this assumed at all? Sure, the standard deviation can help us define the range. But with the range already defined, this is a needless calculation for our pusposes.

I assumed Moiraine and old Siuan were equals, then Siuan was half her old strength (4K and 2K). It seemed a reasonable place to put them within the distribution, since Moiraine is one of the strongest AS. I don't know if 3K is the correct place to put an average AS, but it can make sense in a bell curve (i.e., the average channeler doesn't have to be in the middle of the range).

The distribution is based off the 68-95-99.7 rule (wiki it). In brief, 68% of the population of interest is within plus or minus one SD of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within 3.

quoteThat puts Moirane (4,000 units) in the top 2.5% of the Tower (25 strongest Aes Sedai) and the new Siuan (2,000 units) in the bottom 2.5 % of the Tower (25 weakest Aes Sedai).

Okay... I'm still waiting to see what all this says about channelers as a whole.

Each is 2 standard deviations from the mean of 3,000, which means the middle of the bell curve accounts for 95% of sisters, with Moiraine and Siuan on opposite ends of the curve.

Dude, you assumed the mean (erroneously), you assumed the standard deviations, you assumed the distance from the mean at which Moiraine and Siuan are placed and then strung these together to give me "proof" that Moiriane being less than a sixth as strong as Rand is supported by the bell curve. I could have done the same thing and "proved" that Moiraine is of strength 20, and Rand 25000!

Notice that the "Big Dogs" are well above that. You have to consider that there are very few "Big Dogs" compared to your run of the mill AS.

There should also be an equally tiny number of "small dogs" which you seem to have ignored completely.

Well yes, but so has RJ. OK, Morgase and a bunch of no-name novices/wilders we've never met, then.

I believe Sidious' scale was meant to be (or should be) some sort of exponential scale. There is no way that 2 average AS would be able to subdue Rand (in fact, they can't).

Well, no one is saying two average AS can subdue Rand. Show me where anyone assumed that and I'll concede the point. All we're saying is that by any twisting you do, the average female strength, which will be the strength of the largest number of women, will be half that of Rand's.

Sorry, I skimmed most of this thread, but I saw that people were using shielding as a way to measure strengh. For example, 3 people shielding Semi vs. 2 for egwene, etc. If that is not good for measuring strength (and I don't think it is the best way, really), then forget that point.
Reply to message
The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha Sidious - 17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM 8261 Views
I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... Shannow - 17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM 1596 Views
Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here... Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM 1585 Views
Fair enough but the problem is... Shannow - 17/12/2009 05:13:39 PM 1390 Views
There's one thing that does suggest Lanfear is very dextrous... fionwe1987 - 17/12/2009 05:49:14 PM 1507 Views
Re: Fair enough but the problem is... Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:08:27 PM 1076 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM 1484 Views
Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... Shannow - 17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM 1365 Views
Indeed, and not only that Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:10:46 PM 1070 Views
Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM 1143 Views
Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM 751 Views
why? darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM 1193 Views
Re: why? Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM 1268 Views
I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM 1235 Views
and yet RJ does Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM 1143 Views
Re: and yet RJ does darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM 1023 Views
Re: and yet RJ does Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM 1113 Views
No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM 1228 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM 971 Views
Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it! darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM 924 Views
Meh... Sidious - 19/12/2009 06:01:56 PM 931 Views
Re: Meh... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:43:58 PM 981 Views
Re: Meh... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 06:46:03 PM 1240 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha Sidious - 17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM 1191 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM 1099 Views
Let's work with your figures... Shannow - 17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM 1036 Views
Re: Let's work with your figures... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM 1030 Views
You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM 710 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM 1131 Views
Still, it's created more questions than it has solved. Logain - 17/12/2009 08:13:26 PM 1160 Views
the obvious answer darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:06:33 PM 1021 Views
Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM 1044 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve Logain - 17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM 976 Views
Re: two women holding Nynaeve Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM 1156 Views
I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block. Logain - 17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM 1231 Views
I think all the main characters were forced Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:38:41 PM 1137 Views
agreed! darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:01:37 PM 1052 Views
but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM 1061 Views
What? Where? *NM* Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM 1121 Views
I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM 1040 Views
Sorry, Path of Daggers not Winter's Heart darius_sedai - 20/12/2009 03:32:33 AM 1018 Views
Don't links amplify stength? BlackAdder - 17/12/2009 10:26:12 PM 956 Views
The opposite, actually. Phelix - 17/12/2009 10:36:51 PM 1060 Views
Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength Logain - 17/12/2009 07:46:55 PM 969 Views
Re: Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:55:38 PM 1157 Views
What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to Logain - 17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM 1191 Views
It means even Moghedien is vastly stronger than the average modern Aes Sedai... Shannow - 17/12/2009 05:48:09 PM 1177 Views
Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM 1091 Views
Agreed! *NM* Logain - 17/12/2009 08:19:08 PM 631 Views
Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM 1166 Views
Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... Shannow - 17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM 1118 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM 1344 Views
uhm.... yes she knows Oberonus - 17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM 1184 Views
Re: uhm.... yes she knows RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:24:17 PM 1068 Views
yup *NM* darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:49:51 PM 587 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM 1147 Views
Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien... Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM 1335 Views
Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM 1086 Views
And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM 1025 Views
I hope that's not your standard for dueling Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:24:09 AM 1055 Views
what you expect a Channeler to announce themselves and darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:47:17 AM 1061 Views
How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that? Logain - 17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM 987 Views
agreed darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 08:00:40 PM 949 Views
Elayne says Egwene was at her full strength in TSR, and thus was stronger than she currently was. RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 10:25:31 PM 930 Views
Elayne says Egwene was forced and was thus currently stronger darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:51:28 PM 971 Views
Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section! RugbyPlayingAshaman - 17/12/2009 11:23:20 PM 1002 Views
Re: Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section! darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:25:31 PM 1003 Views
Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM* Cannoli - 17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM 637 Views
I'll check *NM* Sidious - 17/12/2009 08:28:57 PM 606 Views
This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use... Shannow - 17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM 1114 Views
No people just interpret things differently darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 10:56:45 PM 921 Views
But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? fionwe1987 - 17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM 864 Views
I think they are secretly just trying to make Lanfear appear that much stronger *NM* darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:17:38 PM 569 Views
You also forget something. Phelix - 17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM 953 Views
Re: You also forget something. darius_sedai - 17/12/2009 11:43:50 PM 977 Views
Re: You also forget something. Phelix - 18/12/2009 02:09:08 AM 1001 Views
That has nothing to do with what I said... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM 962 Views
Re: That has nothing to do with what I said... Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM 879 Views
Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai". fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM 922 Views
Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM* Sidious - 18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM 903 Views
I cannot. That's the point... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM 930 Views
Re: I cannot. That's the point... Sidious - 19/12/2009 11:58:39 AM 935 Views
Sorry, but no... fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:23:41 PM 973 Views
The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15... Shannow - 17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM 1454 Views
but you are the person quantifying the actual strength levels. darius_sedai - 18/12/2009 12:09:08 AM 937 Views
Yes, Sidious' scale is a relative scale not an absolute one *NM* BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:23:25 AM 842 Views
In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM 880 Views
Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM 934 Views
What do you mean, relative scale? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM 898 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 01:16:53 AM 836 Views
Re: What do you mean, relative scale? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:40:33 AM 905 Views
OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM 969 Views
1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM 905 Views
Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM 983 Views
The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM 1004 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM 1067 Views
Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM 1005 Views
You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence... Shannow - 18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM 982 Views
Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM 909 Views
Explain one thing to me... Shannow - 18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM 925 Views
Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM 542 Views
Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote. Shannow - 18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM 885 Views
This is why I have a hard time with anyone using too many darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:22:40 AM 935 Views
Can you provide the quote? fionwe1987 - 19/12/2009 06:24:40 PM 844 Views
Well, I was curious so I went and found it darius_sedai - 26/12/2009 08:59:46 PM 1024 Views
which is also suspect darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM 946 Views
No it's not Sidious - 19/12/2009 12:04:21 PM 918 Views
we're in agreement darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:22:34 PM 868 Views
OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then. BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM 948 Views
So, RJ made that statement for what reason? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 11:03:30 PM 917 Views
I don't think it's a lie BlackAdder - 18/12/2009 11:19:41 PM 969 Views
Agreed Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:04:14 PM 922 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM 904 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM 879 Views
Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk? Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:04:39 PM 926 Views
Bell curves CANNOT be skewed! fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:06:15 PM 983 Views
I've discussed this before... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM 975 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... Sidious - 18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM 950 Views
Re: I've discussed this before... fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM 929 Views
Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... Shannow - 18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM 961 Views
Why are you entertaining this? Sidious - 18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM 939 Views
The other poster showed no proof that RJ's math was wrong. Read what he said again! *NM* fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:09:49 PM 585 Views
Verin's circle matched Granedal dude. And average strength does not mean great strength. fionwe1987 - 18/12/2009 06:07:51 PM 951 Views
Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself... darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM 954 Views
I can't imagine it being about skill Sidious - 19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM 954 Views
of course it's about skill darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM 943 Views
Not it isn't! Sidious - 19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM 974 Views
If she was only thinking about strength why then didn't she have a plan to add Sheriam darius_sedai - 19/12/2009 07:09:08 PM 895 Views
I always thought that without her angreal... everynametaken - 18/12/2009 06:27:07 AM 1055 Views
Egwene, Elayne, and Aviendha are equally matched. Heiko - 18/12/2009 07:47:03 AM 1178 Views
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules

Reply to Message

Block Quote Paragraph Quote
Formatting
Smiley Codes