The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM
These are just example. Again, I don't care if you think they are right or wrong - I'm trying trying to talk about statistics.
If you don't care what I think, then you shouldn't be debating with me!
Rand - 25,000 units of OP
Moridin - 24,500
Lanfear - 24,000
Semirhage - 20,000
Nynaeve - 19,500
Moghiedien - 15,000
Egwene - 10,000
Moiraine - 4,000
The average AS - 3,000
Siuan - 2000
Moridin - 24,500
Lanfear - 24,000
Semirhage - 20,000
Nynaeve - 19,500
Moghiedien - 15,000
Egwene - 10,000
Moiraine - 4,000
The average AS - 3,000
Siuan - 2000
I'll let this stand.
Considering the tower has ~1000 AS, and going by normal distribution, there will be 68% of AS within one standard deviation.
The normal distribution encompasses all women according to RJ, not just women in the Tower or women strong enough to be admitted in the Tower.
Women like Sorilea and Morghase can never be Aes Sedai, but they must be considered in the bell curve. Meaning that in your range, we need values below 2000 to get any accurate values.
Second, if the strongest possible woman has an effective strength of 25000 units (which is true, since RJ said that effectively, the strongest woman equals the strongest man), and the weakest 100 (or one or 20, take your pick), then the mean will be the median of these values.
That means, if we assume 3,000 units is the Tower mean,
I see no reason to assume such a ridiculous value for the mean. It violates the central feature of a normal distribution that the mean equals the median. And the median of the range 2000 to 25000 is most certainly not 3000!
then 68% will be within one SD of that. The SD will be whatever strength level accounts for 34% of AS greater than the mean (or 34% less than the mean), going in sequential order of strength.
Again, you assume female channeler=Aes Sedai. You're also working from a very weird assumption for the value of the mean that is mathematically insupportable.
I frankly don't see why the standard deviation is being dragged into this at all. Whatever the standard deviation turns out to be for this range of 2k-25k, the median and the mean of the distribution will be 13500.
Let's just assume that that the standard deviation in the tower is 500 units.
I haven't done the calcualtions, but on what basis is this assumed? Further, why is this assumed at all? Sure, the standard deviation can help us define the range. But with the range already defined, this is a needless calculation for our pusposes.
quoteThat puts Moirane (4,000 units) in the top 2.5% of the Tower (25 strongest Aes Sedai) and the new Siuan (2,000 units) in the bottom 2.5 % of the Tower (25 weakest Aes Sedai).
Okay... I'm still waiting to see what all this says about channelers as a whole.
Each is 2 standard deviations from the mean of 3,000, which means the middle of the bell curve accounts for 95% of sisters, with Moiraine and Siuan on opposite ends of the curve.
Dude, you assumed the mean (erroneously), you assumed the standard deviations, you assumed the distance from the mean at which Moiraine and Siuan are placed and then strung these together to give me "proof" that Moiriane being less than a sixth as strong as Rand is supported by the bell curve. I could have done the same thing and "proved" that Moiraine is of strength 20, and Rand 25000!
Notice that the "Big Dogs" are well above that. You have to consider that there are very few "Big Dogs" compared to your run of the mill AS.
There should also be an equally tiny number of "small dogs" which you seem to have ignored completely.
I believe Sidious' scale was meant to be (or should be) some sort of exponential scale. There is no way that 2 average AS would be able to subdue Rand (in fact, they can't).
Well, no one is saying two average AS can subdue Rand. Show me where anyone assumed that and I'll concede the point. All we're saying is that by any twisting you do, the average female strength, which will be the strength of the largest number of women, will be half that of Rand's.
The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 03:32:03 PM
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I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here...
17/12/2009 04:27:53 PM
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Re: I assume you're referring to EFFECTIVE strength here...
17/12/2009 05:05:18 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 04:52:56 PM
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Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more...
17/12/2009 04:57:17 PM
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Re: Alivia's rings and chains angreal multiplies strength by 4 times or more...
17/12/2009 06:07:39 PM
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Moiraine at 45 strength is way too high. She can't be that high. *NM*
17/12/2009 07:44:50 PM
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why?
17/12/2009 07:57:37 PM
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Re: why?
17/12/2009 08:11:13 PM
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I don't think there is one scale you can put both men and women on is the point
17/12/2009 08:21:21 PM
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and yet RJ does
17/12/2009 08:27:39 PM
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Re: and yet RJ does
17/12/2009 09:49:20 PM
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Re: and yet RJ does
18/12/2009 04:20:16 AM
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No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it!
18/12/2009 05:08:04 PM
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Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it!
19/12/2009 11:53:24 AM
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Re: No more liberty than you are taking assuming only a woman like Graendal could do it!
19/12/2009 05:12:47 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 05:07:28 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 06:24:12 PM
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Let's work with your figures...
17/12/2009 06:45:46 PM
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Re: Let's work with your figures...
17/12/2009 07:16:49 PM
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You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake. *NM*
17/12/2009 07:50:25 PM
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Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake.
17/12/2009 07:59:13 PM
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Re: You have a good point about Daigian and Semirhage. That may have been a BS mistake.
17/12/2009 08:14:01 PM
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Re: two women holding Nynaeve
17/12/2009 08:17:10 PM
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Re: two women holding Nynaeve
17/12/2009 08:19:34 PM
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I personally think Nynaeve gained strength slower than most because of her block.
17/12/2009 08:30:44 PM
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but we know as late as WH that she has not reached her full potential
17/12/2009 09:50:12 PM
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What? Where? *NM*
18/12/2009 04:22:36 AM
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I'll have to dig up the quote, apologies but I'm at work and don't have the books
18/12/2009 05:00:20 PM
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Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength
17/12/2009 07:46:55 PM
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Re: Gateway theory refutes this. The size of gateway is relevant to strength
17/12/2009 07:55:38 PM
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What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to
17/12/2009 05:40:41 PM
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It means even Moghedien is vastly stronger than the average modern Aes Sedai...
17/12/2009 05:48:09 PM
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Re: What do you think of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage in relation to
17/12/2009 08:15:58 PM
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Re: The relative strength in the Power of Nynaeve vs Cadsuane vs Egwene/Elayne/Aviendha
17/12/2009 06:47:23 PM
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Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 06:53:18 PM
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Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 07:26:55 PM
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uhm.... yes she knows
17/12/2009 08:04:08 PM
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Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 07:28:00 PM
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Re: Except tthat Egwene herself says she has no chance against Moghedien...
17/12/2009 08:23:01 PM
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Ishamael told her that she would never be strong enough to face him
17/12/2009 09:52:47 PM
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And Ishamael was killed be a shepherd and Bel'al balefired by a "weak" Aes Sedai.
17/12/2009 10:33:41 PM
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How can we be certain Egwene was at full strength when she said that?
17/12/2009 07:58:39 PM
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Elayne says Egwene was at her full strength in TSR, and thus was stronger than she currently was.
17/12/2009 10:25:31 PM
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Elayne says Egwene was forced and was thus currently stronger
17/12/2009 10:51:28 PM
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Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section!
17/12/2009 11:23:20 PM
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Re: Definitely TSR, because I re-read that book constantly - will try to find the section!
17/12/2009 11:25:31 PM
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Didn't the glossary say that Cadsuane was not far behind Eg/El? *NM*
17/12/2009 08:05:32 PM
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This thread has achieved absolutely nothing. When people don't accept quotes, what's the use...
17/12/2009 10:22:45 PM
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But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
17/12/2009 11:13:40 PM
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I think they are secretly just trying to make Lanfear appear that much stronger *NM*
17/12/2009 11:17:38 PM
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You also forget something.
17/12/2009 11:36:50 PM
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That has nothing to do with what I said...
18/12/2009 12:21:06 AM
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Re: That has nothing to do with what I said...
18/12/2009 01:28:53 PM
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Dude, prove it in a random sample, not in a skewed sample like "women who want to be Aes Sedai".
18/12/2009 05:43:22 PM
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Show me a random sample in the series that we can use *NM*
18/12/2009 06:45:08 PM
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I cannot. That's the point...
18/12/2009 08:33:38 PM
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The One Power Bell Curve's average strength is not 50, it is more like 15...
17/12/2009 11:41:48 PM
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In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now?
18/12/2009 12:37:47 AM
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Re: In a Bell curve, mean=median=mode. I suppose that is untrue now?
18/12/2009 12:47:52 AM
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What do you mean, relative scale?
18/12/2009 12:53:29 AM
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OK, I have no interest in OP Strength, but you comments about statistics and bell curve got me
18/12/2009 12:20:27 AM
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1 to 100 works perfectly well as a range...
18/12/2009 12:47:44 AM
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Here is an example with an absolute scale, converted to relative
18/12/2009 01:03:38 AM
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The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
18/12/2009 01:28:38 AM
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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
18/12/2009 02:03:00 AM
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Re: The Tower is not the whole range of channeler population!
18/12/2009 03:16:25 AM
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You're right, and that proves my point - here are the calculations and the evidence...
18/12/2009 07:51:26 AM
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Dude, read up on some statistics, then we'll continue this debate...
18/12/2009 06:05:26 PM
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Explain one thing to me...
18/12/2009 10:40:00 PM
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Who said she's stronger than two very strong AS? Silviana can shield her alone! *NM*
18/12/2009 11:01:01 PM
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Aviendha said so in FoH. It is a direct quote.
18/12/2009 11:04:21 PM
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which is also suspect
19/12/2009 12:04:14 AM
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OK, the Tower AS don't fall into a bell-curve, then.
18/12/2009 10:34:16 PM
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Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
18/12/2009 04:31:53 AM
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Re: But you ignore RJ's own quotes... who're you to talk?
18/12/2009 04:42:33 AM
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I've discussed this before...
18/12/2009 01:06:07 AM
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Re: I've discussed this before...
18/12/2009 04:37:30 AM
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Re: I've discussed this before...
18/12/2009 04:58:48 AM
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Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself...
18/12/2009 07:02:28 AM
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Why are you entertaining this?
18/12/2009 01:19:25 PM
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The other poster showed no proof that RJ's math was wrong. Read what he said again! *NM*
18/12/2009 06:09:49 PM
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Verin's circle matched Granedal dude. And average strength does not mean great strength.
18/12/2009 06:07:51 PM
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Re: Egwene + Lelaine + Romanda is weaker than one male Forsaken...according to Egwene herself...
19/12/2009 12:46:18 AM
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I can't imagine it being about skill
19/12/2009 12:06:42 PM
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of course it's about skill
19/12/2009 05:22:45 PM
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Not it isn't!
19/12/2009 05:52:02 PM
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If she was only thinking about strength why then didn't she have a plan to add Sheriam
19/12/2009 07:09:08 PM
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