Active Users:352 Time:11/04/2025 01:33:27 AM
Sorry, no... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 02/05/2014 06:00:56 PM

View original post
What would be consistent with RJ's quote on the Bell Curve, is if we applied some logic to what he said.

You're not applying logic, though. You're applying an assumption that would fit your view.
The Bell Curve he first referred to, applied to the 3% channeling population of the Age of Legends. The 1% that remain today, are not only fewer in number, but this remnant comes from the weakest third of that AOL 3%.

In other words, the 2% that went extinct, were on average the strongest 2%, leaving the bottom 1% as today's channeling population.


That's quite ridiculous. The Aes Sedai standard for entry is a product of this Age. RJ said 62.5% of "the" bell curve would be accepted. "The" Bell curve is the same distribution that spans both Ages, the only thing that changed is the number of channelers that were in the population. There's zero evidence that only the stronger channelers got weeded out. RJ explicitly said that the reduction in number was due to the male channelers being removed from the gene pool. He also said this reduced the number of sparkers. He also said there is no correlation between having the spark and strength in the One Power. There is therefore no mechanism by which culling male channelers would lopsidedly only remove stronger channelers.
The fact is, if we acknowledge that the "+" level channelers follow a different scale than the scale that applies from Elaida downwards,(which we do), then we also have to accept that the Normal distribution that applies to the Aes Sedai channelers cannot also apply to the "+" level channelers.

No such thing. You're making the fatal error of assuming strength level= actual strength. If Lanfear is strength 100, it is perfectly possible that the upper levels are separated by, say, 5 strength units. But the Aes Sedai range of strengths has more resolution, ie. more levels, since that's where it mattered.

For example, if Mesaana is 89, Nynaeve 90 and Semirhage 91, they'd all be lumped into the level which corresponds to a strength of 90, because such minor strength differences don't matter to Foresaken, and an Aes Sedai like Nynaeve is so rare that a point here and there is going to make no change to how much a weaker AS defers to her (which was the primary purpose of this scale anyway).

On the other hand, Siuan may be 60, and Leanne 58, but these are counted as different levels, since for Aes Sedai, such small differences can have major impacts on their interaction.

Thus, the channelers at the "+" level aren't following a different scale. The resolution of the scale is different.


It is impossible for the average woman in the books to be half as strong as Lanfear. Because then we should see as many women above that average strength as there are below the average strength.

The problem is, as usual, that you devalue Aes Sedai strength too much. You think it is plumb impossible for Elaida to be more than 50% Lanfear's strength. I don't. I think it is perfectly reasonable that Elaida is 60-65% of Lanfear's strength. On the other hand, I'd put the level that is "just strong enough to Travel" as being at 45% of Lanfear's strength. The majority of the named Aes Sedai fall in this strength range.

Now consider these statements from Cadsuane:
From Kerene, it's a sharp drop to the next five. Five once this child and the Sanche girl reach their potential.

No one has come to the Tower in a thousand years who could match me. No one to match Meilyn or Kerene in almost six hundred. A thousand years ago, there would have been fifty sisters or more who stood higher than this child. In another hundred years, though, she'll stand in the first rank.

Don't you see what this means? Firstly, Cadsuane thinks its a sharp drop from her to Moiraine. But she's speaking in Aes Sedai terms. She may be 70 and Moiraine 60, the same kind of drop between Lanfear and Nynaeve/Semirhage. To Semirhage, that is a minor issue, no reason at all for her to be cowed by Lanfear. To Moiraine, it means the need to show a lot of deference, and for Cadsuane, the ability to be a lot more commanding.

Secondly, just a thousand years ago, there would have been 50 or more sisters stronger than Moiraine. And definitely, more women at Moiraine's level, since she's closer to the mean than those 50+ women. The Tower has been under sampling this group, and they also undersample at the lower strength levels because they reject anyone weaker than Daigian, and may not even invite to the Tower those who don't spark and are detected to be too weak. Daigian is an incredible rarity in the Tower, not common at all. She's like the Cadsuane of weak Aes Sedai. They talk about her as much for her weakness as they do about Cadsuane's strength. And there are likely as many women as Cadsuane at the negative distance from strength 50 as Cadsuane is positive.

Think about it: Cadsuane at 70 is 20 above average of 50. A woman 20 below will be strength 30, probably just at the edge of being accepted Aes Sedai. Go one step higher, and you get Egwene, an incredible rarity in the Tower, at strength 75. How many at strength 25 do they even get? They turn these women away, of course, but are they in greater number than a woman of Verin's strength in the wider population? I doubt it.


And we simply don't. Not in any sample of modern channelers. Whether they be Windfinders, Wise Ones, Kin or Aes Sedai.

Depends where you place the average, actually. In Linda's list, the numbers between Verin and Leanne are the most populated.



Daigian at 40% of Elaida strength
The average woman at 50% of Elaida strength
The average Aes Sedai at 66% Elaida strength

That simply fits.


Except, of course, it completely doesn't fit with anything RJ said. It fits your version of his quotes, not his actual quotes.

Incidentally, I place Elaida at 60, and Daigian somewhere in the low thirties. Meaning I put her at about 50%, slightly more, of Elaida's strength. We aren't incredibly far off...

Reply to message
One Power strength: New information from RJ's notes - 01/05/2014 11:39:32 PM 4254 Views
interesting. i wonder what else they'll dig up - 01/05/2014 11:46:19 PM 1628 Views
College of Charleston library - 02/05/2014 12:21:01 AM 1712 Views
Still... really cool, thanks! *NM* - 03/05/2014 06:35:05 PM 870 Views
Mesaana - 02/05/2014 12:26:19 AM 1697 Views
Re: Mesaana - 02/05/2014 12:37:52 AM 1735 Views
Danelle - 02/05/2014 12:59:51 AM 1631 Views
Interesting... - 02/05/2014 05:13:44 PM 1694 Views
Re: Mesaana - 26/05/2015 10:21:33 PM 1244 Views
Bringing it all together... - 02/05/2014 10:34:12 AM 1623 Views
Can't accept that, sorry... - 02/05/2014 03:17:05 PM 1669 Views
How that CAN be interpreted however, is... - 02/05/2014 03:38:38 PM 1354 Views
Sorry, no... - 02/05/2014 06:00:56 PM 1390 Views
Here are some key flaws, unfortunately... - 02/05/2014 07:56:53 PM 1275 Views
Sorry, you're mistaking the Tower for the world... - 02/05/2014 09:50:23 PM 1322 Views
Re: Sorry, you're mistaking the Tower for the world... - 02/05/2014 09:59:45 PM 1328 Views
Not totally accurate - 17/05/2015 11:15:30 PM 1227 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 05/06/2015 03:23:08 PM 1255 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 05/06/2015 08:22:13 PM 1220 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 05/06/2015 09:16:51 PM 1395 Views
Re: Not totally accurate - 06/06/2015 03:48:34 PM 1213 Views
Re: How that CAN be interpreted however, is... - 02/05/2014 09:39:06 PM 1530 Views
Thanks DomA. The problem is simple.. - 02/05/2014 09:57:37 PM 1389 Views
Ahh, the Rand with Egwene and Elayne scene... - 02/05/2014 10:19:05 PM 1566 Views
Re: Thanks DomA. The problem is simple.. - 02/05/2014 10:45:12 PM 1469 Views
About that... - 02/05/2014 10:48:18 PM 1311 Views
Re: About that... - 02/05/2014 11:12:01 PM 1451 Views
Re: About that... - 17/05/2015 03:07:22 AM 1217 Views
Re: Thanks DomA. The problem is simple.. - 05/06/2015 03:16:50 PM 1320 Views
Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 02/05/2014 10:24:02 PM 1363 Views
Re: Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 02/05/2014 11:09:16 PM 1250 Views
Re: Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 02/05/2014 11:36:55 PM 1418 Views
More on Aiel learners - 03/05/2014 12:46:19 AM 1401 Views
Interesting. - 03/05/2014 02:32:23 AM 1308 Views
Re: Thanks a ton for that Dom... - 03/05/2014 01:02:23 AM 1382 Views
Oh... - 03/05/2014 02:35:08 AM 1332 Views
Re: Oh... - 03/05/2014 04:29:34 AM 1889 Views
Can you clarify something here Dom/Terez? - 07/05/2014 01:31:54 AM 1380 Views
Re: Can you clarify something here Dom/Terez? - 07/05/2014 02:59:42 AM 1535 Views
Thanks Dom, I'm genuinely puzzled, though... - 07/05/2014 09:04:08 AM 1428 Views
Some things to consider... - 07/05/2014 11:22:46 PM 1274 Views
Re: Some things to consider... - 17/05/2015 03:32:22 AM 1183 Views
Vegeta! What does the scouter say about his power level? - 02/05/2014 04:38:59 PM 1286 Views
mmm, Vegeta *NM* - 03/05/2014 08:32:36 AM 862 Views
Sorilea and comments on the general structure of the notes - 02/05/2014 09:20:26 PM 1603 Views
Is there any reference whatsoever about strength multiples? - 02/05/2014 09:34:50 PM 1468 Views
I will let you know if I see something like that... - 02/05/2014 10:20:46 PM 1333 Views
Thanks. Because it will solve the entire riddle - 03/05/2014 11:04:31 PM 1439 Views
Re: Thanks. Because it will solve the entire riddle - 04/05/2014 06:16:52 AM 1468 Views
Interesting... - 04/05/2014 08:14:19 AM 1493 Views
Re: Interesting... - 05/05/2014 04:08:41 PM 1405 Views
LOL! - 02/05/2014 09:46:11 PM 1484 Views
More info on Sorilea - 02/05/2014 10:04:50 PM 1614 Views
This is great! - 02/05/2014 10:23:31 PM 1527 Views
In the original he might have kissed her. - 03/05/2014 12:49:53 AM 1387 Views
Having read some of his other books with sex, I've always been curious about this. - 05/05/2014 02:53:00 PM 1581 Views
Easy answer - 10/05/2014 02:49:53 PM 1327 Views
Can't argue with that! - 18/05/2014 12:31:01 AM 1455 Views
Therava/Galina - 10/05/2014 02:58:09 PM 1924 Views
Came across one of the oldest strength lists I'd seen... - 02/05/2014 10:46:29 PM 1414 Views
#10 seems weird. An Aes Sedai who never reached her full potential? - 03/05/2014 06:43:41 PM 1525 Views
Not weird. There is a good reason. - 03/05/2014 09:30:40 PM 1559 Views
One question... - 03/05/2014 09:44:35 PM 1500 Views
yes to both *NM* - 03/05/2014 10:49:29 PM 932 Views
Suian? - 04/05/2014 04:50:32 PM 1460 Views
Does not meet the criteria I gave. *NM* - 10/05/2014 05:23:27 AM 803 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 11/05/2014 05:49:31 AM 1387 Views
Not someone who was severed, burned out, or anything like that. *NM* - 11/05/2014 01:27:28 PM 846 Views
Did she join the Aes Sedai especially early or late in life? - 11/05/2014 01:47:27 PM 1398 Views
no... - 11/05/2014 04:27:07 PM 1269 Views
Wild guess... - 11/05/2014 06:51:27 PM 1320 Views
One of Terez's criteria - 11/05/2014 09:24:57 PM 1287 Views
Hmmm... - 12/05/2014 08:51:33 AM 1265 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 13/05/2014 06:14:12 PM 1444 Views
Even I don't know what Dom is talking about. *NM* - 13/05/2014 06:24:23 PM 813 Views
Does it have anything to do with the Sharans? - 13/05/2014 10:35:45 PM 1308 Views
no - 14/05/2014 07:52:27 AM 1311 Views
Wasn't there a Sister who was a Queen or sister to a King or something like that... - 13/05/2014 09:26:02 PM 1375 Views
Kiruna... - 13/05/2014 10:34:32 PM 1298 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 13/05/2014 10:38:05 PM 1225 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 14/05/2014 04:09:42 AM 1300 Views
Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 14/05/2014 04:37:20 AM 1375 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 14/05/2014 07:55:20 AM 1347 Views
- 14/05/2014 08:14:05 AM 1265 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 15/05/2014 03:59:02 AM 1417 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 16/05/2014 04:06:02 PM 1280 Views
Re: Oh. Is it about using as much if the OP as you can handle? - 17/05/2014 03:01:25 AM 1385 Views
Perhaps Romanda? - 05/06/2015 04:22:31 PM 1270 Views
Re: Perhaps Romanda? - 05/06/2015 08:39:31 PM 1084 Views
Re: Wild guess... - 12/05/2014 05:33:53 AM 1381 Views
Alternatively, someone who went to live in Far Madding... - 12/05/2014 12:08:07 PM 1363 Views
That was one of my guesses... - 12/05/2014 04:57:56 PM 1159 Views
Redirect to my initial "Not weird" post. *NM* - 12/05/2014 06:59:02 PM 825 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 20/05/2014 02:23:13 AM 1271 Views
Lots of no *NM* - 20/05/2014 02:30:25 AM 830 Views
You're killing me. - 20/05/2014 02:55:21 AM 1289 Views
I won't just tell you :p But... - 20/05/2014 10:31:27 AM 1384 Views
Wild speculation - 20/05/2014 01:39:52 PM 1290 Views
Could it be Verin who always used her angreal? - 20/05/2014 02:07:30 PM 1269 Views
Hmmm - 20/05/2014 03:37:57 PM 1275 Views
Well, I'm not saying she did it to appear weaker... - 20/05/2014 03:48:10 PM 1193 Views
The buffer - 20/05/2014 04:10:58 PM 1305 Views
I doubt using an angreal means you don't progress in natural strength - 20/05/2014 06:02:00 PM 1461 Views
Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 20/05/2014 11:53:11 PM 1332 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 21/05/2014 01:55:15 AM 1263 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 22/05/2014 02:33:30 AM 1332 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 22/05/2014 05:04:00 AM 1385 Views
So... - 22/05/2014 05:12:48 AM 1247 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 22/05/2014 11:55:38 AM 1255 Views
Re: Both potential and actual strength can be sensed. - 24/05/2014 02:07:01 AM 1300 Views
I didn't say that - 24/05/2014 11:24:30 PM 1351 Views
Re: I didn't say that - 25/05/2014 02:32:46 PM 1302 Views
did she deliberately keep her growth slow? A small theory too - 17/05/2015 11:54:28 PM 1231 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 05:49:42 PM 1289 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 06:05:28 PM 1166 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 06:23:28 PM 1300 Views
Re: Not weird. There is a good reason. - 04/06/2015 08:37:20 PM 1121 Views
I think this will be in the Encyclopedia, so... - 10/06/2015 03:06:42 PM 1253 Views
you are such a tease *NM* - 10/06/2015 09:05:10 PM 647 Views
Why doesn't someone... - 24/05/2014 11:25:51 PM 1470 Views
Favourite part about this post... - 12/05/2014 07:12:51 AM 1489 Views
With regard to #10- does it involve the Oath Rod, in some way? - 15/05/2014 02:53:45 PM 1295 Views
no *NM* - 15/05/2014 07:16:16 PM 791 Views
Oh, I know! It's the Sea Folk Aes Sedai! - 17/05/2014 01:32:04 PM 1370 Views
Re: Oh, I know! It's the Sea Folk Aes Sedai! - 17/05/2014 08:45:59 PM 1405 Views
An Aes Sedai who was sent away from the Tower? - 17/05/2014 10:01:44 PM 1409 Views
Again, no reason to think this Aes Sedai did not channel often. *NM* - 18/05/2014 04:32:06 AM 832 Views
Did the Aes Sedai live in relative seclusion, did she have a Warder, and did that Warder die? *NM* - 20/05/2014 06:03:04 PM 942 Views
Too specific - 20/05/2014 11:51:25 PM 1347 Views
Re: Too specific - 21/05/2014 05:32:32 AM 1248 Views
You think THAT isn't specific? *NM* - 22/05/2014 02:41:53 AM 840 Views
It's a fine mess that no one can work out - 09/06/2014 09:20:56 AM 1490 Views
Re: It's a fine mess that no one can work out - 04/06/2015 08:48:20 PM 1362 Views

Reply to Message