Who said RJ created a 100 point scale? I always assumed we did to make this easier to follow
darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 31/10/2012 02:22:51 PM
Although, in effect he did because there is a maximum and a minimum therefore creating a 100% scale
Aviendha and Egwene are not at full strength at any point you call out. Egwene is certainly > than Amy's + Melaine at this point in the series and is likely pretty close to her Potential, I'd say in the 80-90% range as she has clearly grown since that time.
Aviendha on the other hand began Channeling only about two months prior to THoF and while she has clearly grown rapidly there is no way she has reached more of her potential strength than Elayne has at this point in the series since we know they are roughly equal in TPoD and beyond. At this time in the series Elayne is no stronger than Moiraine, assuming she had significant growth since the end of TSR where she was significantly weaker than Moiraine.
For arguments sake, let's overestimate Aviendha and say she is the equal of Moiraine in TFoH. We know she is still behind Egwene months later in TPoD as Elayne says that outright so this seems like a likely highest level. I also very much doubt the AS she later meets would have harassed her so much if she had gained much more of her strength as they would have looked at her as a lost cause Wilder who had Channeled too long to bend to the Towers ways.
At any rate, we now can see that ~85% of Egwene + Moiraine (or thereabouts) > Lanfear. And to reiterate how little this matters it's also proof that Rand is stronger than Lanfear, as you point out Egwene +. Aviendha < Rand. Of course none of this speaks to effective strength which would mean if Lanfear = Rand in effective strength, despite less overall strength, then Egwene + Aviendha would be > Rand in effective strength. Lack of TRAINING is ultimately what would matter. Which is, by the way, what RJ also noted on the subject.
Egwene (and likely Moiraine) does not realize that women have the "dexterity" bonus over men and thus wouldn't realize that she and Aviendha in all likelihood could match or exceed effects that Rand could perform when linked despite less raw strength.
I agree that the Forsaken are probably about 4 standard deviations from the Mean (on a BC 99.7% falls within 3 SDs of Mean). My argument is that Morgase must also be the same number of standard deviations from the Mean. But in order to make the Bell curve work we must have the right groupings in each set of SDs ... Which would place women like Egwene 3 SDs about Mean, Cadsuane 2 and Moiraine 1 above Mean. Perhaps Verin is Mean making New Siuan 1 below and Daigian 2 and Sorilea 3 ... All that tells us nothing about how strong they actually are. You consistently bunch AS and others very close to the bottom part of the BC and seem to create many higher SDs above the Mean to place the Forsaken. This doesn't work, there must be as many SDs above as below the Mean.
Another area where I argue the Bell Curve is when you start putting the Mean so low that there are huge gaps of people between SDs. The problem here is that if Pevara is clearly above the Mean we run into a uneven Bell Curve. She is too strong to fall into the Mean level, but too weak to fit into the SD where women like Cadsuane live. In fact, by definition she is closer to Lanfear than she is to Morgase in Power. Since RJ placed a finite limit to both ends of his Bell Curve it is fact that Morgase is as weak as Lanfear is Strong. Pevara is above the Mean which means she MUST be closer to Lanfear than she is to Morgase. Doesn't matter how many SD you insert here this remains constant. And since RJ clearly pointed out Strength as the Bell Curve it follows that Pevara is closer to Lanfear's strength than she is to Morgase's.
Aviendha and Egwene are not at full strength at any point you call out. Egwene is certainly > than Amy's + Melaine at this point in the series and is likely pretty close to her Potential, I'd say in the 80-90% range as she has clearly grown since that time.
Aviendha on the other hand began Channeling only about two months prior to THoF and while she has clearly grown rapidly there is no way she has reached more of her potential strength than Elayne has at this point in the series since we know they are roughly equal in TPoD and beyond. At this time in the series Elayne is no stronger than Moiraine, assuming she had significant growth since the end of TSR where she was significantly weaker than Moiraine.
For arguments sake, let's overestimate Aviendha and say she is the equal of Moiraine in TFoH. We know she is still behind Egwene months later in TPoD as Elayne says that outright so this seems like a likely highest level. I also very much doubt the AS she later meets would have harassed her so much if she had gained much more of her strength as they would have looked at her as a lost cause Wilder who had Channeled too long to bend to the Towers ways.
At any rate, we now can see that ~85% of Egwene + Moiraine (or thereabouts) > Lanfear. And to reiterate how little this matters it's also proof that Rand is stronger than Lanfear, as you point out Egwene +. Aviendha < Rand. Of course none of this speaks to effective strength which would mean if Lanfear = Rand in effective strength, despite less overall strength, then Egwene + Aviendha would be > Rand in effective strength. Lack of TRAINING is ultimately what would matter. Which is, by the way, what RJ also noted on the subject.
Egwene (and likely Moiraine) does not realize that women have the "dexterity" bonus over men and thus wouldn't realize that she and Aviendha in all likelihood could match or exceed effects that Rand could perform when linked despite less raw strength.
I agree that the Forsaken are probably about 4 standard deviations from the Mean (on a BC 99.7% falls within 3 SDs of Mean). My argument is that Morgase must also be the same number of standard deviations from the Mean. But in order to make the Bell curve work we must have the right groupings in each set of SDs ... Which would place women like Egwene 3 SDs about Mean, Cadsuane 2 and Moiraine 1 above Mean. Perhaps Verin is Mean making New Siuan 1 below and Daigian 2 and Sorilea 3 ... All that tells us nothing about how strong they actually are. You consistently bunch AS and others very close to the bottom part of the BC and seem to create many higher SDs above the Mean to place the Forsaken. This doesn't work, there must be as many SDs above as below the Mean.
Another area where I argue the Bell Curve is when you start putting the Mean so low that there are huge gaps of people between SDs. The problem here is that if Pevara is clearly above the Mean we run into a uneven Bell Curve. She is too strong to fall into the Mean level, but too weak to fit into the SD where women like Cadsuane live. In fact, by definition she is closer to Lanfear than she is to Morgase in Power. Since RJ placed a finite limit to both ends of his Bell Curve it is fact that Morgase is as weak as Lanfear is Strong. Pevara is above the Mean which means she MUST be closer to Lanfear than she is to Morgase. Doesn't matter how many SD you insert here this remains constant. And since RJ clearly pointed out Strength as the Bell Curve it follows that Pevara is closer to Lanfear's strength than she is to Morgase's.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 31/10/2012 at 02:48:46 PM
Addressing problems with the Bell Curve
31/10/2012 11:30:42 AM
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Who said RJ created a 100 point scale? I always assumed we did to make this easier to follow
31/10/2012 02:22:51 PM
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One more point here
31/10/2012 03:02:34 PM
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I've think I've finally done it. I've solved the entire Curve. Daigian is the key...
01/11/2012 09:20:57 AM
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Did some playing with your numbers to make this work better
01/11/2012 02:13:00 PM
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The Mean and SD are set by Daigian's position. Your options are therefore not possible...
02/11/2012 07:49:24 AM
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Yet you have many more SD between the Mean and Lanfear than you do Morgase and the Mean
02/11/2012 02:39:51 PM
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I absolutely agree. The lower side of the curve MUST be intersected by zero after 1 SD...
02/11/2012 03:03:52 PM
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I am not convinced Moiraine is the Mean. Merely 50% of Lanfear
02/11/2012 04:23:57 PM
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But on a Bell Curve the Mean IS 50% of Lanfear. You've just disproven your own contention.
02/11/2012 04:40:31 PM
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OMG no it is NOT!
02/11/2012 05:16:36 PM
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I agree with that. But please honestly look at the math I presented. It disproves the Bell Curve.
02/11/2012 05:24:41 PM
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It doesn't matter that you think the BC is disproved.
02/11/2012 06:07:19 PM
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Confusing post...
02/11/2012 06:30:40 PM
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If you choose to ignore the author go right ahead. I just think you are wrong
02/11/2012 09:05:14 PM
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Re: It doesn't matter that you think the BC is disproved.
02/11/2012 07:11:57 PM
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I think the number is about 10
03/11/2012 08:42:08 AM
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Nope
03/11/2012 04:14:45 PM
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Re: Nope
03/11/2012 04:39:07 PM
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Verin and Graendal each have angreal of unkown strength
03/11/2012 06:15:49 PM
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Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve
01/11/2012 06:23:07 PM
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Re: Addressing problems with the Bell Curve
01/11/2012 09:48:04 PM
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I'll have to disagree with much of this
03/11/2012 07:46:31 AM
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Why do you always think Strength is the point
03/11/2012 04:35:26 PM
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I don't - I merely appreciate it as a factor
03/11/2012 04:48:24 PM
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0 Evidence? Cyndane v. Alivia is plenty of evidence EDIT with exact quote
03/11/2012 06:17:39 PM
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One other thing you have forgotten about
03/11/2012 10:13:09 PM
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Your agenda blinds you to logic yet again...As I'll simply demonstrate with your example here...
03/11/2012 11:08:13 PM
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Nope, the only experience she has in reality is against Rand
03/11/2012 11:09:54 PM
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Nonsense.
03/11/2012 11:11:05 PM
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Believe as you will
03/11/2012 11:26:50 PM
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That's a classic.
04/11/2012 12:06:13 AM
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You misquote on a regular basis and have no grasp of the timeline in the series
04/11/2012 01:36:37 AM
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Hmm...
04/11/2012 07:08:04 AM
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stop getting all indignant ... I'm really not trying to be nasty to you
04/11/2012 04:20:06 PM
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Reply to your EDIT: I think YOU have a totally warped perspective, based on what you wish for.
03/11/2012 11:16:29 PM
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Funny that's exactly how I see your perspective
03/11/2012 11:25:52 PM
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I don't need to interpret the following in any way other than the obvious to get the picture...
04/11/2012 12:17:53 AM
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as usual you miss that there is a timeline and strength growth throughout the series *NM*
04/11/2012 01:47:41 AM
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