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LOL darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM
Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.


Of course. To clarify, when I say the situation with the novices is impossible, what I actually mean is that the probability of that happning is by chance is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000133.

And yes, I did the math, and yes, those are 136 zeros.

Edit:

My mistake, it should be 163 zeros.


I love that you did the math :P

Fact remains, despite how slim the chances, even without ANY other variation the potential for the 1000 novices to be weak exists. Those odds begin to change when you add in variants like genetic culling of the ability that may have occurred in the region and who knows what other factors. It could be as simple as the region recently underwent the terror of a rampaging False Dragon in Logain and women who would not normally think to become AS suddenly had an opportunity in front of them and went to investigate.

I disagree with DomA on a few points such as AS not awakening the ability in those too weak to become AS. From what we know on the male side, the test itself awakens the ability. In which case the AS would be stuck with even the weak women for several months at the very least. This also seems likely when we look at the Sul'dam, these are women who are on the brink of Channeling but have not yet done so and thus AS cannot feel the ability in them. For all we know there could have been 10,000 women who came to sign up, but only 1000 had any ability at all.

Further, if you look to the Black Tower as an example of voluntary recruits, we've seen some men who went there already had a good feeling that the ability was in them, like Grady and Almaragin (the Tairen lord) who each had male relatives who had could Channel and have proven to be rather Strong. Then look at Androl, who went out of simple curiosity, and he turns out to be very weak. It's possible many women in the 1000 Novices were driven to sign up because very recently they were in the path of Logain and they wanted both a sense of security and a sense of purpose but didn't "feel" the Power in themselves and like Androl they had a small level of ability. Others, like Sharina, had no real reason for leaving established lives (with huge conflicts in fact) and may well have "felt" the Power in themselves and took the opportunity to join. Sort of like having a "Calling" v. a "Vocation"

In the end there are many reasons Egwene could have picked up so many too weak women, but if we were to look at a formalized recruitment that gathered EVERY woman (spark or no-spark) who could channel from EVERY region of the world the 62.5% would be true. I believe that's meant to illustrate both AS ineffectiveness as well as light a path for the future of the WoT world post-TG and perhaps show us what things were like in the AoL. Millions of Channelers with varied abilities who could accomplish more together than they could separately.

Egwene has shown us flashes of what she intends with this throughout the series. She clearly wants to unify the Channeling groups and open up recruitment policies even further.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2771 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 686 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 940 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1097 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1025 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 751 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1031 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1249 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1073 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1122 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1112 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1109 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1021 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 979 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1053 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 601 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1164 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 856 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1187 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 920 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1013 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 968 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1024 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 957 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1023 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 972 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 893 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 898 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 903 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 950 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 875 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 972 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 958 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 986 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1048 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 740 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1043 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 882 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 930 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 945 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 858 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 847 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 822 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1027 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 794 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 944 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1024 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 790 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 913 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 805 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 844 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 807 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 933 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 934 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 819 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 865 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 855 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 857 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 887 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1219 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 907 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 962 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 884 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 863 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 837 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 846 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 839 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 844 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 884 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 886 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 898 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 850 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 833 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 815 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 962 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 867 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 814 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 961 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 810 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 848 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 827 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 753 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 971 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 807 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 893 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 821 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 754 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 856 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1375 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 824 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 860 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 851 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 932 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 866 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 888 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 864 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 834 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 907 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 795 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 834 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 853 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 876 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 916 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 836 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 841 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 858 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 999 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 960 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 601 Views

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