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LOL darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM
Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.


Of course. To clarify, when I say the situation with the novices is impossible, what I actually mean is that the probability of that happning is by chance is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000133.

And yes, I did the math, and yes, those are 136 zeros.

Edit:

My mistake, it should be 163 zeros.


I love that you did the math :P

Fact remains, despite how slim the chances, even without ANY other variation the potential for the 1000 novices to be weak exists. Those odds begin to change when you add in variants like genetic culling of the ability that may have occurred in the region and who knows what other factors. It could be as simple as the region recently underwent the terror of a rampaging False Dragon in Logain and women who would not normally think to become AS suddenly had an opportunity in front of them and went to investigate.

I disagree with DomA on a few points such as AS not awakening the ability in those too weak to become AS. From what we know on the male side, the test itself awakens the ability. In which case the AS would be stuck with even the weak women for several months at the very least. This also seems likely when we look at the Sul'dam, these are women who are on the brink of Channeling but have not yet done so and thus AS cannot feel the ability in them. For all we know there could have been 10,000 women who came to sign up, but only 1000 had any ability at all.

Further, if you look to the Black Tower as an example of voluntary recruits, we've seen some men who went there already had a good feeling that the ability was in them, like Grady and Almaragin (the Tairen lord) who each had male relatives who had could Channel and have proven to be rather Strong. Then look at Androl, who went out of simple curiosity, and he turns out to be very weak. It's possible many women in the 1000 Novices were driven to sign up because very recently they were in the path of Logain and they wanted both a sense of security and a sense of purpose but didn't "feel" the Power in themselves and like Androl they had a small level of ability. Others, like Sharina, had no real reason for leaving established lives (with huge conflicts in fact) and may well have "felt" the Power in themselves and took the opportunity to join. Sort of like having a "Calling" v. a "Vocation"

In the end there are many reasons Egwene could have picked up so many too weak women, but if we were to look at a formalized recruitment that gathered EVERY woman (spark or no-spark) who could channel from EVERY region of the world the 62.5% would be true. I believe that's meant to illustrate both AS ineffectiveness as well as light a path for the future of the WoT world post-TG and perhaps show us what things were like in the AoL. Millions of Channelers with varied abilities who could accomplish more together than they could separately.

Egwene has shown us flashes of what she intends with this throughout the series. She clearly wants to unify the Channeling groups and open up recruitment policies even further.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2850 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 721 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 977 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1182 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1109 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 834 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1109 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1333 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1154 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1198 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1198 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1211 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1091 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1046 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1132 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 634 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1252 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 930 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1273 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 997 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1087 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1047 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1104 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1057 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1103 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1051 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 963 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 971 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 969 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1031 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1023 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 958 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1052 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1049 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1056 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1117 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 786 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1131 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 919 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 998 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1019 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 921 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 934 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 892 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1103 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 874 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1022 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1100 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 860 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 994 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 878 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 929 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 872 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1004 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1013 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 896 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 945 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 925 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 943 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 963 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1292 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 976 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1040 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 929 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 931 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 923 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 927 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 911 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 914 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 945 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 956 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 980 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 924 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 908 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 888 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 894 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1038 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 888 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 933 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 882 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1036 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 881 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 917 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 902 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 824 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1036 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 881 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 957 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 901 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 833 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 936 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1451 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 892 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 937 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 932 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1006 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 954 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 951 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 941 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 906 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 982 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 869 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 911 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 928 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 952 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 983 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 913 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 916 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 935 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1088 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1037 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 632 Views

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