Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.
Of course. To clarify, when I say the situation with the novices is impossible, what I actually mean is that the probability of that happning is by chance is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000133.
And yes, I did the math, and yes, those are 136 zeros.
Edit:
My mistake, it should be 163 zeros.
I love that you did the math
Fact remains, despite how slim the chances, even without ANY other variation the potential for the 1000 novices to be weak exists. Those odds begin to change when you add in variants like genetic culling of the ability that may have occurred in the region and who knows what other factors. It could be as simple as the region recently underwent the terror of a rampaging False Dragon in Logain and women who would not normally think to become AS suddenly had an opportunity in front of them and went to investigate.
I disagree with DomA on a few points such as AS not awakening the ability in those too weak to become AS. From what we know on the male side, the test itself awakens the ability. In which case the AS would be stuck with even the weak women for several months at the very least. This also seems likely when we look at the Sul'dam, these are women who are on the brink of Channeling but have not yet done so and thus AS cannot feel the ability in them. For all we know there could have been 10,000 women who came to sign up, but only 1000 had any ability at all.
Further, if you look to the Black Tower as an example of voluntary recruits, we've seen some men who went there already had a good feeling that the ability was in them, like Grady and Almaragin (the Tairen lord) who each had male relatives who had could Channel and have proven to be rather Strong. Then look at Androl, who went out of simple curiosity, and he turns out to be very weak. It's possible many women in the 1000 Novices were driven to sign up because very recently they were in the path of Logain and they wanted both a sense of security and a sense of purpose but didn't "feel" the Power in themselves and like Androl they had a small level of ability. Others, like Sharina, had no real reason for leaving established lives (with huge conflicts in fact) and may well have "felt" the Power in themselves and took the opportunity to join. Sort of like having a "Calling" v. a "Vocation"
In the end there are many reasons Egwene could have picked up so many too weak women, but if we were to look at a formalized recruitment that gathered EVERY woman (spark or no-spark) who could channel from EVERY region of the world the 62.5% would be true. I believe that's meant to illustrate both AS ineffectiveness as well as light a path for the future of the WoT world post-TG and perhaps show us what things were like in the AoL. Millions of Channelers with varied abilities who could accomplish more together than they could separately.
Egwene has shown us flashes of what she intends with this throughout the series. She clearly wants to unify the Channeling groups and open up recruitment policies even further.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM
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Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM*
24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM
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Androl did. *NM*
25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM
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But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing?
25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM
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Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information.
25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM
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Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications
25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM
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Travelling
25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM
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Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM
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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM
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Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine
25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM
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Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common
28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM
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How strong Pevara is...
25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM
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I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30...
25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM
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Agreed
25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM
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That was disproved long ago...
26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM
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But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong'
26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM
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Not particularly strong evidence for that last.
26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM
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But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves
26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM
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The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM
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Re: The Bell Curve explained...
26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM
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Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM
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The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM
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Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same...
28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM
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You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM
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I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM
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Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies.
28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM
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This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM
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Re: This is like watching a train-wreck.
29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM
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So what's your conclusion?
29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM
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you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right?
29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM
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Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM
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Re: Excellent points...
29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM
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You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM
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I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area
29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM
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Re: You seem confused.
29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM
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He drew graphs!
30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM
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Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM
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Re: Excellent points...
30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM
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Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes:
29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM
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Huh?
29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM
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Re: Huh?
29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM
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You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM
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Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM
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Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop
29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
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Geography alone can do this
30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM
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Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM
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Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
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Re: Here's why its not random...
30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM
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Re: You don't seem to know what random means...
29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM
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Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM
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Re: Why must there be a mechanism?
30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM
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Nope...
30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM
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Re: Nope...
30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM
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Oh my...
30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM
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Thought experment time! Hurrah!
30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM
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But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM
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Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results
30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
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LOL
30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM
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Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same
28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM
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The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM
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Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories
28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM
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The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM
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The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM
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Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength.
28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM
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There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength
28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM
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How is this fact?
29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM
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Re: How is this fact?
29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM
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Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM
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Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then...
29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM
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Are you blind man?
30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM
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Re: The curve hasn't shifted!
28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM
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Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times
28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM
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On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking
27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM
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