Active Users:763 Time:13/12/2025 02:12:32 PM
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM
Simply because the odds say you should get roughly 50/50 heads/tails does not mean it will happen. It is statistically possible to have all 1000 coins turn up heads.


Of course. To clarify, when I say the situation with the novices is impossible, what I actually mean is that the probability of that happning is by chance is 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000133.

And yes, I did the math, and yes, those are 136 zeros.

Edit:

My mistake, it should be 163 zeros.
Fram kamerater!
This message last edited by Tor on 30/10/2012 at 03:39:38 PM
Reply to message
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 3005 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 797 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 1030 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1306 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1295 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 943 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1197 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1477 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1243 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1293 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1289 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1300 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1263 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1143 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1279 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 713 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1357 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 1050 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1410 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 1082 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1202 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1156 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1205 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1200 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1215 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1201 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 1116 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 1129 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 1080 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1149 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1128 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 1055 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1195 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1164 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1225 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1223 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 998 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1310 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 996 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1086 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1157 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 1023 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 1031 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 1117 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 1008 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1225 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 1009 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1118 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1196 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 1151 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 979 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 1141 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 972 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 1013 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 962 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1164 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1120 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 1022 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 1107 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 1033 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 1071 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 1052 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1440 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 1078 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1183 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 1034 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 1020 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 1037 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 1068 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 992 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 1022 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 1034 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 1084 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 1110 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 1016 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 995 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 983 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 984 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1162 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 987 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 1035 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 1042 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1185 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 968 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 1063 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 994 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 958 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1147 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 998 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 1047 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 988 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 938 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 1027 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1586 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 1014 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 1065 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 1022 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1147 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 1060 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 1002 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 1047 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 1117 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 1044 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 1018 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 1106 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 1043 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 1013 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 1100 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 1037 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 1071 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 1006 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 1011 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 1031 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 1071 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1166 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1148 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 713 Views
Back to Messageboard Post New Thread Search Help Stats Rules

Reply to Message

Block Quote Paragraph Quote
Formatting
Smiley Codes