Active Users:1127 Time:22/11/2024 08:08:09 PM
Not really darius_sedai Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM
In the real world a global statistic could be that 30% of the world population is of Chinese decent ... But if you were to take a random sample of 1000 people in Sweden the odds are you will come up with far fewer people of Chinese decent. Further if you took 1000 people who were In Sweden and were Political Science majors looking to enter a Masters Program you may well have even fewer.


Do you seriously not see that "living in Sweden" is way more likely to be correlated with "not being Chinese" than "wanting to become Aes Sedai" to be correlated with "quite a lot weaker than average, even though I don't know I can channel yet"?

Ad I didn't say I believed genetics had nothing to do with strength. Clearly the Soul plays a part, but we've seen too many examples of breeding creating Channelers of strength... Talaan and her whole family for instance.


Ok, fair enough. So to return to the original point, isn't it then possible that the curve could have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?


Swedish people in general are also more likely to be much taller than Chinese people if you prefer to use height as the example, or have a higher percentage of blonde than etc.... The point being there are going to be regional variations based on genetics/breeding.

No the overall BC would not have shifted. Certainly it has in specific regions, making it possible for the TR to breed more Channelers and stronger Channelers and potentially the region where the AS picked up these 1000 to breed fewer and/or weaker. But in the overall scheme the Curve is the Curve, RJ was speaking of the present day when he was quoted on the 62.5% and he made no caveats about current day strength etc ...

You can believe that 1000 is not a tiny sample, but no statistician would ever tell you that a regionally confined sample representing such a small % of a population is reliably projectable as a sample. Things we can assume about the WoT populacation. There are a dozen or so cities of significant size representing in the ballpark of 8-10MM people. With the population being heavily skewed outside of the cities we can assume a total population in the Westlands of maybe 50M. This means in just this population there should be roughly 250k women with the ability. Factor in Seanchan Aiel, Sea Folk and Shara, and we may be looking at a channeling population of over 1M and from vastly varied regions and genetic circumstances. Sharans from what we know actively breed the trait so it's possible they have increased the % of the population to 3% or maybe higher if that is possible. Seanchan effectively eliminate all Sparkers from the breeding pool, but nearly all female non-Spakers are found and are given places of high standing and likely breed normally. We've seen more strong women among the Aiel and SF than maybe we should have (I'll leave that to speculation since the author tended to put stronger Channelers at the forefront of his story lines).

Net result is we don't have anywhere close to a representative sample with what amounts to about 1% of 1% and that number is heavily regionally skewed. It would be like trying to project something on a global scale based only on the population on Topeka Kansas. Some things will likely work out, but the regional bias will have a heavy effect.
Domani Drag Queen in the White Tower ... Aran'gar watch out!
This message last edited by darius_sedai on 30/10/2012 at 02:52:30 PM
Reply to message
Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2771 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 686 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 940 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1097 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1025 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 751 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1031 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1249 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1073 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1123 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1113 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1109 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1021 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 980 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1053 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 601 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1164 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 857 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1188 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 920 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1013 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 968 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1024 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 957 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1023 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 972 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 894 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 898 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 903 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 958 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 950 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 875 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 972 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 958 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 986 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1049 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 740 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1044 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 882 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 930 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 946 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 858 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 847 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 823 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1027 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 795 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 944 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1025 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 790 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 913 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 806 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 844 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 807 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 933 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 934 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 820 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 865 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 855 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 857 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 888 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1219 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 907 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 963 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 884 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 863 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 837 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 847 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 839 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 844 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 884 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 886 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 899 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 850 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 834 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 816 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 962 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 812 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 868 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 814 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 961 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 811 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 848 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 828 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 753 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 971 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 807 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 893 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 822 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 754 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 856 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1375 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 825 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 860 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 852 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 932 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 866 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 888 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 864 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 834 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 907 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 796 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 834 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 854 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 876 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 916 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 836 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 841 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 858 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1000 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 960 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 601 Views

Reply to Message