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Nope... fionwe1987 Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM

Becaus if there isn't you would expect the 1000 novices to form a representative sample of the population. Because 1000 people is plenty enough to say something about the probability of only 200 of them being strong enough, and it's so unlikely as to be impossible.

No, no you don't. This is not a truly random sample. Which is why you're not seeing the statistical distribution expected of a random sample. Why a particular non-random sample doesn't fit the curve isn't a matter of some specific mechanism.

Take pre-election polls, for example. A truly random sampling would give you an estimate of the final voting trends. But if you make it non-random, but not by selecting for a particular demographic, you will get weird results. For example, if you condict the polling not by calling random people, but by having random people call you in, your results will be skewed. But it won't be skewed due to one particular mechanism. What is distinguishing this sample set from a random sample is that you're asking members of the set to call in. And people call in for a variety of reasons, all of which may skew results one way or another.
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2852 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 722 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 977 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1184 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1110 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 836 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1109 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1333 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1154 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1199 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1199 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1212 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1093 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 1047 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1134 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 634 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1252 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 931 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1274 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 997 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1087 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 1051 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1104 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 1060 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1106 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 1053 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 967 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 975 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 973 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 1032 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 1026 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 959 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 1054 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 1050 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 1057 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1117 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 788 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1134 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 921 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 1001 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 1022 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 923 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 936 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 928 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 894 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1105 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 877 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 1025 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1105 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 998 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 861 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 994 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 881 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 931 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 879 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 1006 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 1016 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 898 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 946 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 928 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 945 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 966 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1294 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 979 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 1043 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 929 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 932 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 924 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 932 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 914 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 917 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 947 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 957 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 982 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 924 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 911 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 893 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 896 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 1040 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 892 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 935 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 885 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 1038 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 884 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 919 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 904 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 826 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 1039 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 886 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 959 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 903 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 840 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 939 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1455 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 895 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 939 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 934 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 1008 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 956 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 835 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 892 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 963 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 945 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 907 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 985 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 872 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 912 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 929 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 954 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 983 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 915 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 918 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 939 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 945 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 1090 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 1039 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 634 Views
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