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Re: Here's why its not random... Tor Send a noteboard - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM
A good real world analogy for OP strength would be IQ. Nebulous as the very concept of IQ is, one important fact about it is that IQ also has a normal distribution. Now, if you take the IQ scores of a random population sample, it will approximate to a bell curve. But if you take a sample of "people who want to go to university", you WON'T get a bell curve.


Actually, that's probably not even true. I guess people who want to go to university also have a bell curve IQ, but probably with a higher average than the general population.

In any case, it is perfecly reasonable that high IQ is correlated with wanting to go to university. It is not perfecly reasonable that being a potentially strong channeler is correlated with wanting to become Aes Sedai, since most people don't know they can channel when they decide.

And that's the sample we have from the Rebels. A selection of people ready to give up their former lives and attach themselves to the Tower. This is NOT a random sample. In the case of Northern Altara, it worked out to there being fewer women strong enough to attain the shawl than expected (the obvious reason is RJ wanted there to be some tension about TG. The sudden addition of 600 strong channelers to the Tower would make it unreasonably strong).


So instead of choosing a self consistent approach, like for example having them recruit only 200 novices, he ignores his previous comment about the 62.5%.

Serisouly, there is no point throwing out numbers like 62.5% if he just ignores them whenever it's convenient.

Take another 1000 from there, or indeed, consider the sample we have from the Two Rivers (which is also non-random, as it was age restricted), and you get a higher than average number of women capable of being Aes Sedai (almost 100%, in fact). Take many such non-random samples from many places, and the combined numbers will likely resemble the bell curve and RJ's 62.5% more closely.


Again, it could well be that people from Norther Alatara are generally weaker in the power. I can't argue against that.

Though if that were the case, why couldn't the bell curve have shifted since the Age of Legends, for genetic reasons?
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2771 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* TheCrownless - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 686 Views
Androl did. *NM* Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 940 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? TheCrownless - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1096 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1025 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? nigelgoboom - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 751 Views
I think it's slightly off darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1031 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Great Lord of Chaos - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1249 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1073 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications DomA - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1122 Views
Travelling Tor - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1112 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine Sidious - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1109 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1020 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 979 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine Tor - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1053 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* Voscaia Sedai - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 601 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine DomA - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1164 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 856 Views
How strong Pevara is... fionwe1987 - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1187 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... DREWRULESWOT! - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 920 Views
Agreed Sidious - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1013 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 968 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve Sidious - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1024 Views
That was disproved long ago... fionwe1987 - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 956 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1023 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. Great Lord of Chaos - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 972 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves DREWRULESWOT! - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 893 Views
Not true darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 898 Views
Not accurate darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 903 Views
The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 949 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 874 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 972 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 985 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Shannow - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1047 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 740 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1043 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 882 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... Tor - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 930 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 945 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 858 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Shannow - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 847 Views
Re: I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:44:02 PM 839 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 822 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. DomA - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1027 Views
So what's your conclusion? Shannow - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 794 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 944 Views
Pretty much... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1024 Views
you do realize that is an impossible question to answer from the books right? darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:50:02 PM 905 Views
Excellent points... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 790 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 913 Views
You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 805 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 844 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 807 Views
Re: You seem confused. fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 933 Views
Re: You seem confused. Tor - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 934 Views
He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 819 Views
Re: He drew graphs! Tor - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 865 Views
Re: He drew graphs! fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 855 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 857 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 887 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1219 Views
Re: Excellent points... Tor - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 907 Views
Re: Excellent points... DomA - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 961 Views
AS recruiting is minimal darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 884 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 863 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: Tor - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 837 Views
Huh? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 846 Views
Re: Huh? Tor - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 839 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 844 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 884 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 886 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 898 Views
Geography alone can do this darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 850 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this Tor - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 833 Views
Not really darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 815 Views
Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 962 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 867 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 814 Views
Genetics plays a role darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 961 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 810 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... Tor - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 848 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 827 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? Tor - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 753 Views
Nope... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 971 Views
Re: Nope... Tor - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 807 Views
Oh my... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 893 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! Tor - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 821 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 754 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results Tor - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 856 Views
LOL darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1374 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same Tor - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 824 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 860 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories Tor - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 851 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 932 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Shannow - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 866 Views
Re: The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. Tor - 28/10/2012 07:27:26 PM 761 Views
There is not a single quote in the series that states Moiraine is less than half the strength darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 10:31:28 PM 819 Views
How is this fact? fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 888 Views
Re: How is this fact? Sidious - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 864 Views
Not so darius_sedai - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 834 Views
Re: Not so Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 907 Views
Sure it is darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 795 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... fionwe1987 - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 834 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... Sidious - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 853 Views
Are you blind man? fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 876 Views
Re: Are you blind man? Sidious - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 916 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... fionwe1987 - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 836 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote darius_sedai - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 841 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! Tor - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 858 Views
Well the most obvious thing is that RJ was quoted on the subject any number of times darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 11:34:18 PM 870 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking darius_sedai - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 999 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... fionwe1987 - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 960 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* darius_sedai - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 601 Views
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