Active Users:1118 Time:22/11/2024 08:01:57 PM
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop Tor Send a noteboard - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM
in the bucket. We know that about 1% of the population has the ability. Which could mean something like 500,000 women have the ability which means 312,500 could be AS and 187,500 are too weak. Picking up a random 1000 women from a specific region who came without active recruitment isn't a representative sample of female channelers. For all we know Northern Altaran women are generally weak in the power.


There is no reason to assume that the 1000 novices are not a random sample. If you were sampling something like income or political opinion or longevity, it would make sense to look at it more carefully, as where you live can be correlated with these things. However, I don't see any plausible way that channeling strength among people who don't yet know they can channel could in any way be correlated with things like where you live or whether you would like to become Aes Sedai.

And with the potential channeling population being that large, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that each of the novices has a 62.5% chance of being strong enough to become Aes Sedai. And if this is the case, it is flat out impossible that only 200 out of 1000 are strong enough.

And what do you mean by Northern Altaran women being generally weak in the power? Didn't you just yesterday say that strength in channeling isn't genetic, and that it is unreasonable that genetics could cause a general drop in channeling strength since the Age of Legends?
Fram kamerater!
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Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 24/10/2012 06:40:47 PM 2771 Views
Did Perva actually initiate the link or was it Androl? *NM* - 24/10/2012 07:02:15 PM 686 Views
Androl did. *NM* - 25/10/2012 05:10:31 AM 940 Views
But didn't Nynaeve do it first at the cleansing? - 25/10/2012 12:43:15 PM 1097 Views
Pevara was thinking on very sketchy information. - 25/10/2012 08:56:20 PM 1025 Views
did he start the link? or just take it? - 27/10/2012 07:33:49 AM 751 Views
I think it's slightly off - 28/10/2012 04:21:05 PM 1031 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 05:13:43 AM 1249 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 04:23:20 PM 1073 Views
Re: Ch2 : Pevara & Androl and channeling implications - 25/10/2012 09:52:03 PM 1122 Views
Travelling - 25/10/2012 08:56:41 AM 1112 Views
Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 04:21:53 PM 1109 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 06:12:21 PM 1021 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 08:50:15 PM 980 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 25/10/2012 09:45:26 PM 1053 Views
Weren't there 150 or so at Maradon? *NM* - 26/10/2012 03:29:53 PM 601 Views
Re: Yes that's a pet theory of mine - 26/10/2012 08:49:58 PM 1164 Views
Perhaps, but if no on in the AoL could do it when mixed circles were common - 28/10/2012 04:22:20 PM 856 Views
How strong Pevara is... - 25/10/2012 07:08:26 PM 1187 Views
I'm pretty sure Moiraine is closer to 30... - 25/10/2012 07:41:37 PM 920 Views
Agreed - 25/10/2012 08:37:24 PM 1013 Views
So... the old story of ignore the bell curve, eh? - 26/10/2012 01:40:49 AM 968 Views
No, I fully respect the bell curve - 26/10/2012 01:51:34 PM 1024 Views
That was disproved long ago... - 26/10/2012 01:36:24 AM 957 Views
But Moiraine isn't 'exceptionally strong' - 26/10/2012 05:16:10 AM 1023 Views
Not particularly strong evidence for that last. - 26/10/2012 05:36:54 AM 972 Views
But we know that it takes significantly more strength to maintain multiple weaves - 26/10/2012 08:14:58 AM 893 Views
Not true - 27/10/2012 09:15:51 PM 898 Views
Not accurate - 27/10/2012 09:31:05 PM 903 Views
The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 10:27:34 AM 957 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 11:40:04 AM 950 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:32:01 PM 875 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 12:48:51 PM 972 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:07:39 PM 958 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:18:32 PM 986 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 26/10/2012 01:57:18 PM 1048 Views
Re: The Bell Curve explained... - 28/10/2012 02:07:39 PM 740 Views
Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 27/10/2012 09:39:58 PM 1044 Views
The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 01:50:37 AM 882 Views
Re: The curve is OBVIOUSLY the same... - 28/10/2012 02:01:59 PM 930 Views
You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 02:41:49 PM 945 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 28/10/2012 05:39:12 PM 858 Views
I need to come and save you from blatant fallacies being spouted by the loonies. - 28/10/2012 05:56:21 PM 847 Views
This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 02:58:51 AM 823 Views
Re: This is like watching a train-wreck. - 29/10/2012 01:10:35 PM 1027 Views
So what's your conclusion? - 29/10/2012 02:14:33 PM 795 Views
His conclusion is that RJ was right about the books he wrote... - 29/10/2012 02:19:59 PM 944 Views
Pretty much... - 30/10/2012 12:57:41 AM 1025 Views
Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:16:39 PM 790 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 29/10/2012 02:47:30 PM 913 Views
You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:22:47 PM 805 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 03:41:48 PM 844 Views
I think the point is that the AS didn't go force every woman in the area - 29/10/2012 07:57:59 PM 807 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:23:22 PM 933 Views
Re: You seem confused. - 29/10/2012 08:57:11 PM 934 Views
He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 12:49:09 AM 819 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 07:43:54 AM 865 Views
Re: He drew graphs! - 30/10/2012 01:57:05 PM 855 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:00 AM 857 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 07:49:57 AM 888 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:05:45 PM 1219 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 01:25:11 PM 907 Views
Re: Excellent points... - 30/10/2012 12:20:17 AM 963 Views
AS recruiting is minimal - 28/10/2012 10:41:29 PM 884 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 02:23:27 AM 863 Views
Re: You need to go read RJ's quotes: - 29/10/2012 07:33:44 AM 837 Views
Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:26:27 PM 846 Views
Re: Huh? - 29/10/2012 02:42:07 PM 839 Views
You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:25:57 PM 844 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 03:36:45 PM 884 Views
Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 08:05:33 PM 886 Views
Re: Personally I just think that 1000 women being allowed to tag along is a drop - 29/10/2012 09:04:02 PM 899 Views
Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 12:39:53 AM 850 Views
Re: Geography alone can do this - 30/10/2012 09:45:58 AM 833 Views
Not really - 30/10/2012 02:49:05 PM 815 Views
Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:04:18 AM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 09:42:35 AM 962 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 01:51:03 PM 811 Views
Re: Here's why its not random... - 30/10/2012 02:21:04 PM 868 Views
YEah, there's no point debating this... - 30/10/2012 02:46:39 PM 814 Views
Genetics plays a role - 30/10/2012 03:03:41 PM 961 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 08:22:40 PM 810 Views
Re: You don't seem to know what random means... - 29/10/2012 09:06:08 PM 848 Views
Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 01:06:29 AM 828 Views
Re: Why must there be a mechanism? - 30/10/2012 09:48:16 AM 753 Views
Nope... - 30/10/2012 01:43:56 PM 971 Views
Re: Nope... - 30/10/2012 02:34:51 PM 807 Views
Oh my... - 30/10/2012 02:50:12 PM 893 Views
Thought experment time! Hurrah! - 30/10/2012 03:27:01 PM 821 Views
But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:30:59 PM 754 Views
Re: But it is still possible in your example to get wildly varied results - 30/10/2012 03:36:03 PM 856 Views
LOL - 30/10/2012 04:49:06 PM 1375 Views
Re: Yet Sharina, Nynaeve etc exist, thus the BC is the same - 28/10/2012 01:39:55 PM 824 Views
The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 04:18:55 PM 860 Views
Re: The point is there are still people being born in the highest strength categories - 28/10/2012 05:21:44 PM 851 Views
The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 05:39:42 PM 932 Views
The fact is, Moiraine is not half as strong as Lanfear, hence she is below average strength. - 28/10/2012 06:02:04 PM 866 Views
How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 02:59:49 AM 888 Views
Re: How is this fact? - 29/10/2012 07:04:15 PM 864 Views
Not so - 29/10/2012 08:09:29 PM 834 Views
Re: Not so - 29/10/2012 08:43:16 PM 907 Views
Sure it is - 30/10/2012 01:43:39 AM 796 Views
Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:20:14 PM 834 Views
Re: Explain Elza-Merise-Cadsuane then... - 29/10/2012 08:38:11 PM 854 Views
Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 01:12:26 AM 876 Views
Re: Are you blind man? - 30/10/2012 09:23:37 AM 916 Views
Cadsuane is just below Egwene... - 30/10/2012 01:37:54 PM 836 Views
Your strength scores don't square with the Pevara quote - 30/10/2012 03:15:22 PM 841 Views
Re: The curve hasn't shifted! - 28/10/2012 07:36:36 PM 858 Views
On Raw strength scores I think you are pretty inline with my thinking - 27/10/2012 09:37:25 PM 999 Views
And the facing a Foresaken comment is out of context anyway... - 28/10/2012 01:56:12 AM 960 Views
Excellent point on raw v. Effective strength *NM* - 28/10/2012 04:13:21 PM 601 Views

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