What you call a new "Concord" is not all too clear from your post, but it doesn't appear to be what I would define as a new Concord. Rand isn't in the same position as LTT in the AOL. Egwene can't keep the likes of Alivia, Cadsuane, and likely even Nynaeve (not to mention Moiraine) and possibly Aviendha from siding with Rand.

Your vision of the Concord is also colored by an outcome that neither LTT nor Latra Posae foresaw (the taint. What LPD feared was that a small error could leave the Pattern wide open) LTT's real failure was in trying to be and do everything at once (lead the rulers, lead the Aes Sedai Guild, lead the war as commander-in-chief and deal with the Bore/Shai'tan. The foretellings that eventually formed the KC were merely starting to appear during the WOS... and they seemed to say LTT would fail....

Dragon was a title he didn't even accept then (unlike now) and it's related to back story elements concerning the Da'shain, the Great Serpent and the Dragon we still don't know about (but are likely an important missing piece of the puzzle). I'm pretty sure it involved rejecting the religious notions the Da'shain brought up that he was also the Creator's champion, the one meant to deal with Shai'tan, the only one who could. I'm pretty sure this is how the Da'shain got coined "Children of the Dragon" - they were the ones who gave LTT the name - and why it was believed from these beliefs of theirs about the Dragon that they served only LTT from now on, which wasn't true.) and failed in his true mission to come up with a plan to deal with the DO that would work. The Wheel blocked his path with the Concord. When LTT failed to devise a better plan (he never found one, didn't realize why it couldn't work because no one knew touching Shai'tan directly with the OP was not a viable option), the Wheel came up with a way to Cleanse saidin down the line (with the CK it then blocked the Concord from using...) before letting him go forward. Before LTT and the Aes Sedai had figured out LTT would fail, the Wheel was already preparing for this outcome, and the foretellings concerning a Dragon Reborn were beginning to appear.

LTT didn't act in "frustration" (though he was likely very frustrated, but that wasn't his motivation as you suggested). His original plan wasn't sound, it got refused and for years he continued the war as commander-in-chief while the other faction tried to implement its own plan B, just as unsound and dangerous. When the Dragon finally decided to strike, the Shadow was on the verge of winning the War and the plans of the Concord were in disarray, having lost the CK and AK. Then LTT begged the Concord to relent and agree to collaborate, and when they didn't he made the decision to strike without them. LTT could no longer dither. The choice was between implementing a plan made even more risky by the refusal of women to collaborate, or let the Shadow win. Merrilor isn't the moment when LTT told the Hall of Servants of the plan he's come up with, it's already the moment when LTT gave the Concord his final ultimatum: you plan has failed before you could even try. Does anyone have a new plan? No? Then we're back to mine, and you can join me or I will strike alone because we can't wait anymore. Rand has already told Egwene his "we can't wait anymore. We can discuss plans and coordinate our efforts, but know that I won't agree to delay breaking the seals, we cannot wait anymore, or we're doomed."

Rand is a wiser man now. He wasn't quite that before his epiphany, but he is now. And wiser than LTT before his death. One of the first things he did returning from DM was to abandon his role as "ruler"/dictator (who could summon the regional governors etc.). He didn't even proclaim it, he just went to the one who styles her position as ruler above the rulers and told her (not in so many words) "Play your role, and sort this out between you, I have no time for that. Prepare for TG as it starts a month from now. I'll see you all at this meeting I'm calling to present my plans and explain why I will break the seals and start the LB." (a next step to this will likely to "abandon" any idea of being the leader of the Asha'man. He's seen its Logain they wish to follow. Rand's "hundred companions" are already is inner circle, a group of both genders this time. The Asha'man can stay on their own, or reunite with the sisters, Rand will tell them it's their business though they'd be much stronger together than apart) He also revealed to his inner circle that he won't act as commander-in-chief either, that he will leave leading the war to others (Mat among others, most likely), that it is not his mission. And that's all because Rand had an epiphany LTT never had (the DM scene made it clear the epiphany was as much for Rand as for LTT). He's fully accepted that he is the Creator's champion (what the AOL, starting with LTT himself, never seemed to accept), accepted what the Creator told him back in EOTW. He was told he had a choice to accept or not, but refusing meant giving up on Creation because only he could do it. He was told the choice was his own, that only he could do what must be done, in short that dealing with Shai'tan was his mission and his decision. Rand made his choice, and all signs point to him focussing his efforts on being the Champion and making the decisions when it comes to dealing with Shai'tan, (something else LTT didn't do, abandonning his plan, leaving LPD try to implement a plan B for years before ultimately returning to his own plan) and it starts with following the pull of the Wheel that the time has come to start the LB.

The Dragon has the bitter experience of the Concord. He already announced to Egwene that he won't stand for that again and that this is non negotiable. The choice he already announced to Egwene is for the WT and the other leaders is between working in parallel and together with the Champion (keeping them in the loop and coordinating all their efforts - by far the best solution), or the Dragon completing his mission with his inner circle while the rest of the world fights the Last Battle on their own as they can.

At Merrilor he isn't likely to be very confrontational but he will definitely be firm and confident (and don't underestimate the fact the Wheel has brought together the three ta'veren for this... it cannot fail. If it does, it will be catastrophic) He will present the facts and why he thinks the time has come to launch TG (and his arguments are very sound. Waiting any more means being even weaker to face the LB) and be forced to follow the War schedule of the Shadow..and be forced into desperate defensive moves. For the whole series, the world has let Shai'tan weaken it and divide it. Rand is saying "we're now as strong as we can hope to be to face this and we'll only be weaker if we wait, so we must face this now). LTT is not mad. He knows exactly how bad things will be once he breaks the seals, because he's faced that before, and if he believes the world can't wait anymore to face this or it will be too weak when the inevitable comes, he must know. Much better than any third ager anyway. He will listen to their arguments against it. Those arguments would have to be very compelling to sway him, because deep down Rand knows it's time, the Wheel is pulling at him, and bringing Perrin and Mat to his side at last. Egwene will no doubt bring up her dreams. LTT knows Dreamers much better than Egwene. The WO know Dreamers, but LTT must know more than they do. I don't think Egwene's dream is very likely to bend Rand's pull by the Wheel. She's terrorized by what she sees in her dream - who wouldn't be? Doesn't it forcibly mean Rand is making the wrong decision? Not quite. His argument is that breaking the seals will be the start of very terrible things with no garantee of final victory (which is how he might interpret her dream, as a warning to her the LB is about to be started by Rand and it will be very ugly, not a call for her to try to stop the breaking of the seals from happening because it's risky and will be bad. Nothing in the dream was about stopping Rand, and it's Egwene's - and the AS and all the the others' terror of what happens next, the LB, that's holding them back and try to delay a bit more before facing it) but he knows waiting would only make things far worse, perhaps doom everything.

The first meeting of Egwene and Rand didn't quite convince her he isn't mad, for good reasons. It wasn't the time to convince her and he knew this (he may have had a small hope it wouldn't go this way, but it would have be a really small one). He expected for her to react to his announcement as she did and assemble the leaders at Merrilor. He meant to provoke her, and well.. Rand is Rand and Egwene is Egwene and even "new Rand" couldn't just go and tell her "I want you to gather all the world's rulers a month from now"...

He won't nearly take the same tone at Merrilor. His purpose there will be different, that is the real meeting and it's not between Rand and Egwene but Rand and all the leaders including Egwene and the WT. Though ultimately Rand is not bluffing, this time he won't be in the mood for bantering games with Egwene. It's the time where he needs to present himself as the Champion, the one in whose hands lies the mission of dealing with Shai'tan. He won't lead them, he won't lead the war for them, he's meant to deal with Shai'tan. If they don't lead, if they don't unite to face the war, they may doom the world. But whatever they decide Rand won't let them determine the agenda to face Shai'tan, it's him the Wheel put there to make those decisions. If a LPD surfaces, then he won't let that stop him from doing what he must when he feels he must (but I don't think Egwene will pull a LPD. And I expect her to have many more dreams during Merrilor, and ultimately take a very deep breath, shake off her fears and accept the seals will be broken whether the AS want it or not, and decide she's better work with Rand than let him go on his own without the rulers. If she says "no", there's no going back. It's her only chance of the WT, their last chance, to get close to Rand and his decision making for the LB.)

I think "Merrilor" will last longer than you think (a few days, covering many chapters, and perhaps preceded by various preludes to the actual meetiong) and I don't think Rand will impose a peace with the Seanchan. That's old style Rand, not the Champion's. The enforced "peace of the Dragon" for the LB and afterward-I-wash-my-hands-as-I'll-be-dead was an old concept Rand presented to Cadsuane who was... far from impressed by how shortsighted this all was. Aviendah's vision took place before Rand's epiphany and was the result of that "concept" imposed by Rand's then dictatorial ways. Rand is likely to have changed his vision of the Seanchan since his epiphany, and looking back at what he figured out while visiting Ebou Dar, and he has true political knowledge/experience from LTT now and he may well give his opinions on the whole issue. But that's something for Egwene and Mat and the others to solve ultimately, not for Rand who know longer sees himself in that political role. I think one of the decisions made at Merrilor might be to send Mat as "ambassador" to Tuon as a last attempt to bring them with the others, and discuss with Rand one more time. That may be Rand's advice. Aviendha is far more likely to be the bearer of the "news" of what not solving the war with the Seanchan truly means for the world after TG. If Rand tells Egwene they must find a way to secure a truce with the Seanchan, Aviendha will speak up.

And now for your argument that Merrilor won't start TG because "it's too early in AMOL", I'll first remind you that AMOL starts two-third into RJ's original last book. It's the proper time to launch the last act. It's just that the breaking of the seals only marks the beginning of the final conflict and we're still a long way from the Strike at SG.

Secondly, it's virtually certain that Merrilor or events happening at the same time elsewhere mark the beginning of TG, because even way back before the publication of TGS Brandon Sanderson said so. You seem to have forgotten that, but he's always talked of the final book (the total) this way: the first two-thirds of the outline resolved the four main storylines and reunited all the players at an event that marks the beginning of the LB proper. All we know now we didn't back then was that this event was the meeting at Merrilor. That's no "red herring", you might want to revise your theories on this issue.

I think the main "concord parallel" intended by Jordan has already played out or started to play out (in TGS), and it was the negotiations between Rand and Tuon (Jordan even made his previous Concord fiasco parallel - Elaida's rule and vision - end up as a damane with Tuon). It's Tuon and not Egwene who believes it's her destiny to fight and win the LB, the Dragon on a leash. Elaida believed much the same. Egwene rather knows the mission is Rand's. She alternates between long moments where she knows this and accepts this (during some of her conversations with Siuan, or more recently Whites), and moments where fears (hers, more often her own advisors's triggering hers) swallow her. With her and the WT it's all a matter of truly accepting what it means that Rand is the Dragon (which includes accepting that dealing with Shai'tan is something only he can do), and realizing that no matter how they fear it, their fears won't prevent TG from happening, nor from starting.

Rand tried to bend Tuon to his will, in his darkness that was a path to doom and the Wheel didn't allow it and made her resist him (her POV made rather clear and obvious, as never before in the series, the Wheel pulling at someone against the force of the most powerful ta'veren... Tuon was in quite mental storm). The "mirror" of his meeting with Tuon at the height of his darkness was the meeting with Egwene right after his epiphany. Egwene's challenge is to finally accept what it truly means that Rand is the Dragon, the Creator's Champion. She may no doubt resist at first, try to manoeuver at Merrilor, but IMO it won't last past the end of the meeting. She will come around, leaving only Tuon as main player who hasn't yet. It remains Tuon who is the main Concord-style antagonist, because we've come to the point Rand long sought to avoid: two enemies to face during the LB, the real one ahead, and the Seanchan in the back.

What we don't know is how the fact the Shadow has launched the War by the attack on Caemlyn will influence the debates at Merrilor. It's pointless to speculate very far, because thanks to Brandon's handling of timelines we don't know for sure how the two events fit on the global timeline. Merrilor may take place in the face of the news that Caemlyn has already fallen to the Shadow. Merrilor may be interrupted by the news Caemlyn is under attack, and groups leave to join that battle, or the news may merrily change the way the debates are going. It may also take place as the groups are returning from Merrilor (though I tend to think this is the least likely scenario - Brandon seemed to say the main cast wouldn't split into individual storylines again once they reunited). Each of those options would change massively how the battle at Caemlyn figures (or not) in the Merrilor debates. It's the epilogue, we just can't know for sure, not with Brandon as the helm.

Personally I tend to think the Shadow wins at Caemlyn. I'm not convinced, but it's what I think the most likely outcome.

I don't think those left at the BT are meant to escape to come warn Rand at Merrilor to come to Caemlyn's aid. I think their purpose is to witness (for us) the takeover of Caemlyn and the BT by Demandred before escaping and bring the news of that to Rand and the others.

Rand's epiphany and its aftermath (the Bordermen, setting up the meeting of the Light, recovering Maradon and so on), Egwene turning the Seanchan back, dealing with the BA and removing Mesaana, Elayne's forming Empire, Moiraine's rescue and Perrin's Hammer all took place more or less at the same time. It was a series of positive climaxes one after the other. What's needed now? A big victory for the Shadow to balance this dramatically speaking. It's the big "you thought everything is going well, but it's not over yet folks" moment when dramatic tension will return with a vengeance as TG begins.

I don't think this is the actual "battle of Caemlyn" (Camlann/Camelot where in the Arthurian legend, Artur dies or is mortally wounded and brought to Avalon). I rather tend to think this merely parallels the moment when Mordreth seized Arthur's city while Arthur and his knights were away fighting. Camelot was in the end of the "bad guys" in the Arthurian final battle. The actual battle of Camlaan/Camelot parallel, the disastrous one, will take place later in the book (it will be an offensive of the Light against a stronghold of the Shadow, IMO) and most likely will be the last big offensive of the Light before SG (it's the battle where Demandred will be defeated, and where Rand will "die" - followed by the three-in-a-boat/the future tethering on the edge of a blade" episode, IMO. Arthur was supposed to return from Avalon (in some versions at the call of a magical horn) at the future time of Britain's greatest need, for a final battle to save England. That future event, alluded to in the epilogue but never told narratively in the Arthurian legend, is what Jordan will turn and twists into the SG events, IMHO).

I think the "first battle of Caemlyn" will merely have the long awaited moment when Demandred come into the open at last and set up his command center in the middle of the continent - in Elayne's city, protected by the second dreamspike. Having groups abandon Merrilor to go to Caemlyn is what the Shadow wishes for. I don't think Rand will advise joining that battle. I think he will convince the rulers they must hold together, not scatter back to their cities, that they must plan before they even try to strike back at Demandred, or he will take them out one group after the other.

I don't think this will be the only opening strike either (merely the one Brandon chose to tell us early about), as Demandred needs to move fast to seize a few Waygates only watched by Ogier or humans and not closed, and he needs to move to seize the Portal Stones (I very much think Demandred will have moved for Cairhien at the same time, and it may not be his only other initial targets. Tear is another important location, Waygate and PS-wise. Rhuidean "that cursed place" - dixit Demandred, could be another and Demandred seems to hate the Da'shain (and now Aiel) for not fully yet explained reasons but likely linked to the fact it was said they served LTT alone and were the "Children of the Dragon". I'm quite suspicious of the fact Jordan gathered the Aiel "civilians" there instead of leaving them in hundreds if not thousands of holds. These Waygates and PS are the keys to the mobility of the Shadospawn armies through TG as we already saw in TOM (it sounds like Rand's mission for Loial was meant by Jordan to reduce to a "saner" level the number of Waygates the Shadow could use during TG - early on before Travelling he needed them near every stedding and old enough city locations, but then the time came to reduce those. Events at the end of TSR suggests EF/TR will be spared the worst of the LB, incidentally). This, and a powerful base where his main force is grouped and the Light can't Travel to, is what Demandred needs to be able to bring the war where it hurts the most: the main population centers. Demandred has the advantage, he only needs to raid and damage those cities (and destroy their stockpiles of food, humanity's last ones...), not really hold them. Of course, that's also were the "foodstores to maintain his Shadowspawn going through the LB are, but he doesn't need to hold the cities very long to move the populations to "cattle camps" ... He needs a few, though, otherwise if he keeps his stronghold in the Blight he won't have the PS/Waygates to move at will.



I think those setbacks will actually open AMOL. The big debate at Merrilor will concern breaking the Seals and Rand's arguments as to why this is the right course to follow. Rand meant to take the timing of the start of the LB out of the Shadow's hands (though as we'll see he wasn't stupid enough to believe that what he told Egwene and the others wouldn't reach the Shadow during the month between announcement and meeting. Rand's not stupid to have believed the news of Merrilor and his intentions wouldn't reach Shai'tan and his minions. By telling the Hall of the Tower and the other leaders a month early, he knew he was throwing the glove at the Shadow too. There's logic behind Rand's plan. As long as the seals aren't broken, the Shadow is free to wage war everywhere. They can raid locations and retreat, raid and retreat, the Light is forced (or tempted) to keep defending tons of locations, at least unless they start regrouping humanity and the foodpiles in the biggest and most defendable locations, like Tar Valon, Rhuidean, the SF islands and so on. Breaking the Seals gives more power to Shai'tan and increase he can contribute to the Shadow's strength, but once the seals are broken Shai'tan must also expect the strike at SG to come at any time and because of that must keep a sufficient force in reserve. It increases the power of the Shadow, yes, but it also puts it on the defensive at last, all the more since the Light's best hope is in a fast strike that would keep the LB as short as possible (but we know this is largely a bluff from Rand at this point... he has no plan to strike immediately and has not even solved how it has to be done! But the Shadow doesn't know this and must not know this, and that's the important point). Shai'tan will be far less keen to spread his forces and best generals to strike everywhere on the continent, when It knows Rand may only wait for the Shadow to have done that to bring his assembled forces to strike at SG. The beauty of being forced to use Waygates is that Shadowspawn armies can't return to SG very fast, and to move them faster the Shadow needs its channellers in the field to operate Portal Stones, the location of which is "random". By breaking the seals, Rand would in the short term actually diminish the threat over the big population centers, by forcing the Shadow to regroup/keep in the Blight and around SG itself significant forces because Rand's strike there may now come at any time.