Active Users:1195 Time:23/11/2024 03:50:09 AM
Read these facts slowly, maybe you will grasp the implication then... Shannow Send a noteboard - 06/02/2011 04:41:02 PM

On the Bell Curve, the average strength woman would be on 50. That puts the average strength woman at slightly above Moiraine's 45 on your list.

Move Moiraine to around 55 or so and that's a problem solved.

And because it's a Bell Curve, it means that the majority of women fall around Moiraine's level in strength, with AS MANY above her as below her.

So, to put it simply, there should be as many women between Moiraine and Moghedien as there are between Moiraine and Dagian.

Nope. Darius and I sorted this out.

Because many women are excluded from being Aes Sedai because they are TOO weak, but none are excluded because they are too STRONG, logic dictates that the average woman is WEAKER than the average Aes Sedai, since 37.5% of women fall below Dagian in strength. If you add that 37.5% to the population, then the mean will inevitably be skewed to the weaker side of the average Aes Sedai. Meaning that only 12.5% of women would fall between Dagian and the average woman, but more than 12.5% of Aes Sedai fall between Dagian and the average Aes Sedai.

The Aes Sedai mean strength has nothing to do with global mean strength. The higher echelons of strength are as absent in their ranks as the lower ones are. They are in no way a representation of the global population of channelers.

For simple proof, just look at the novice pool at the beginning of the series. We're told that out of 40 or so Novices, very few were strong enough to be Aes Sedai. But, in the global population, 62.5% of the people should be strong enough to become Aes Sedai.

Clearly, the sample set comprising of women who want to become Aes Sedai is not an unbiased one, and therefore doesn't really show a bell curve.

To put it simply, the average woman is weaker than the avarage Aes Sedai. Since the average Aes Sedai is about two thirds as strong as Moiraine, that would put the average woman at about half of Moiraine's strength.

Nope. The average woman will be stronger, since when you measure the global average, outliers like Alivia and Nynaeve will be included, whereas there are no such woman among Aes Sedai. Thus, in the whole population of female channelers, Moiraine would be slightly above average at 55, but the average Aes Sedai at 35 will be much weaker than the average.

A good clue to this can be seen in the difference between Asha'man and Aes Sedai. The Asha'man go place to place actively recruiting, and have, as a result, a more representative sample set. You see that many more of them are strong enough to Travel, though among the Aes Sedai, this ability is rare.

Since RJ has made it extremely clear that male and female abilities are the same, on average, the number of woman who can Travel should be more or less the same as the number of men. But this is not seen among the Aes Sedai, proving once again that they're a sample skewed towards the weaker side.

Making Moiraine the strongest possible woman at double the average (which is 50 on the Bell Curve).

So there you have it. If the Normal Distribution (a Bell Curve) applies, then Moiraine should be the strongest possible woman on the planet.

So RJ was a moron? I'm sorry, but if that's the only argument you can come up with to defend your pathetic list, then you shouldn't bother.

What? I guess everyone from Cadsuane and up don't exist then, in your Bell Curve world.

RJ's bell curve world.

Your stubborn resistance makes absolutely no sense. You continue to place more value on an ignorant comment from Aviendha that facts given straight out by RJ. And then, while still sticking to that line of thinking, you use execrable math to "disprove" RJ's own statement! Ridiculous.


RJ says flatly that 37.5% of women fall below Dagian.

That means 12.5% of women fall between Dagian and the average strength woman. Only 12.5%. Think what that means. THINK about it, don't just post a knee jerk response. Forget everything else we've debated about. Register the fact that only 12.5% of all channelers fall between Dagian and the average woman.

What that means is that in relative terms, the average strength woman is not much stronger than Dagian.

Regarding the representative sample issue:

The only reason why the Aes Sedai would not be a representative sample of the ENTIRE channeling pool, would be if their selection methods somehow influenced the exclusion of a large part of one side of the spectrum.

Well, as it turns out, it does just that. And in a major way. 37.5% of the entire channeling population are automatically excluded from becoming Aes Sedai. Because they are too weak.

So immediately, more than a third of ALL CHANNELERS on the weak side of the average are DELIBERATELY excluded from the sample. This immediately skews the sample to the stronger side, moving the mean up past the average woman's strength.

On the upper side, there is no such restriction. In fact, stronger channelers, wherever they are found, are much more likely to become Aes Sedai and far more quickly too, than weaker channelers.

If some stronger channelers are missed out, it is randomly done, and will be balanced out by all the middling strength and weak Aes Sedai level channelers that are ALSO missed out on a random basis.

This is completely different from the deliberate, blanket exclusion of the 37.5% of weakest channelers.

THAT is why so many of the novices are so weak, because most of the channelers who are still out there have fallen through the net because they form part of this 37.5% weaker than Dagian.

How could there possibly be enough women in the top 37.5% out there who have somehow been RANDOMLY missed in sufficient numbers to balance out the 37.5% weakest channelers who were DELIBERATELY excluded?

The answer is, statistically it is impossible. For every incredibly strong channeler out there who has not been found due to random selection errors, there will be a matching weak woman who was NEVER FOUND either. I'm not talking about having been found and rejected due to being too weak. I'm talking about never found in the first place, just like the stronger woman who never was found.

What's more, the Aes Sedai strength trend runs perfectly through the Aiel as well. Most Wise Ones who can channel are of Aes Sedai strength.

We hear of only 4 who are stronger than Moiraine, namely Therava, Tamela, Viendre and Someryn. And they include ALL their channelers, even the weakest ones, in their selection.

The point is, EVERY woman in the bottom 37.5% are automatically excluded from selection. But any woman who is found in the top 37.5% will be accepted with open arms.

Meaning that the reason there are no Nynaeve's etc. is because they are so incredibly rare. There are very few of them to be found, as opposed to the many thousands of women in the bottom 37.5%.

So how do you make this Bell Curve work? Only by accepting that Dagian is not far below the average strength woman at all (remember, only 12.5% of women fall between her and the average strength), and that the top 37.5% that balances out the bottom 37.5% is in fact represented by the bulk of Aes Sedai between say Verin's strength and Moiraine's strength.

Statistically the average Aes Sedai MUST be stronger than the average woman. You cannot get away from the upward skewing of the sample caused by the DELIBERATE exclusion of the bottom 37.5% of the ENTIRE POPULATION.

This message last edited by Shannow on 06/02/2011 at 04:46:50 PM
Reply to message
Proof that Asmodean's effective One Power strength is greater than Moghedien's... - 03/02/2011 03:22:42 PM 2224 Views
Huh? - 03/02/2011 04:08:29 PM 1158 Views
Why do you deliberately misquote the text? - 03/02/2011 04:12:50 PM 1176 Views
You're deliberately being obtuse... as usual... - 03/02/2011 10:07:09 PM 1106 Views
Right. So Egwene can shield someone of Egwene's own strength, plus Elayne, AND weave a dozen flows.. - 03/02/2011 10:26:27 PM 1107 Views
- 03/02/2011 10:46:40 PM 988 Views
No. Egwene is very close to her full potential at the time... - 03/02/2011 11:44:20 PM 1076 Views
Bullshit... - 04/02/2011 12:39:42 AM 958 Views
Unbiased view... - 04/02/2011 01:46:40 AM 1073 Views
The WoT Board in a nutshell. *NM* - 04/02/2011 02:34:32 AM 530 Views
Yeah, thats unbiased... *NM* - 04/02/2011 05:23:17 PM 516 Views
Don't agree - 04/02/2011 08:30:02 AM 1089 Views
Fair comment, but my question then is: - 04/02/2011 11:26:25 AM 941 Views
I think the WO and Moiraine also Force Egwene as they know what's coming and need her - 04/02/2011 03:55:46 PM 956 Views
It is specifically stated that Egwene was forced by the rigours of the damane training... - 04/02/2011 05:15:20 PM 942 Views
Egwene has been continually forced... - 04/02/2011 06:02:08 PM 898 Views
The direct quotes contradict you... - 04/02/2011 06:23:03 PM 988 Views
actually the quote substantiates that Egwene is only slightly stronger than Moiraine in TSR - 04/02/2011 07:51:10 PM 1005 Views
here ya go they were all Forced - 04/02/2011 07:59:40 PM 872 Views
Nope... - 04/02/2011 08:23:00 PM 960 Views
I think you may have misused the term - RJ meant 'effective' to mean something a bit different. - 03/02/2011 04:40:41 PM 1137 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 05:30:15 PM 1048 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 05:45:30 PM 1049 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 06:31:34 PM 974 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 07:06:50 PM 993 Views
Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean. - 03/02/2011 07:17:25 PM 991 Views
We still don't know who is effectively stronger, and not sure if Asmo was equal to Rand by the end. - 03/02/2011 06:58:14 PM 805 Views
See my post above, I would say Asmo is Weaker than Moggy... *NM* - 03/02/2011 07:10:07 PM 536 Views
I'm not certain either way. I think it all depends on the terms being used. - 03/02/2011 07:22:01 PM 1020 Views
My impression of your view, in general, is that... - 03/02/2011 07:33:37 PM 895 Views
How... - 03/02/2011 10:15:34 PM 858 Views
If Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did to them, then I rest my case... - 03/02/2011 10:36:46 PM 1012 Views
Re: If Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did to them, then I rest my case... - 03/02/2011 10:50:57 PM 960 Views
Got you now... - 03/02/2011 11:32:49 PM 936 Views
You're clearly delusional... - 04/02/2011 12:59:26 AM 942 Views
You sound ridiculous - 04/02/2011 02:05:18 AM 933 Views
Re: You sound ridiculous - 04/02/2011 02:23:50 AM 1023 Views
Ok... - 04/02/2011 04:13:34 PM 885 Views
Elayne is not stronger than most AS at this point in the books - 04/02/2011 08:14:41 PM 923 Views
Re: How... - 04/02/2011 08:34:21 AM 1082 Views
They're very close now... - 04/02/2011 05:46:48 PM 1033 Views
That is unfortunately not true... - 04/02/2011 06:02:34 PM 1016 Views
It is... - 04/02/2011 06:05:05 PM 868 Views
Re: It is... - 04/02/2011 06:31:32 PM 1124 Views
Yup... - 04/02/2011 08:20:33 PM 877 Views
Semirhage hated Lanfear, but dared not act against her strength... - 04/02/2011 08:29:24 PM 1292 Views
yet Graendal showed a lot of respect for Semirhage ... even assumed she was the most - 04/02/2011 08:53:05 PM 960 Views
Graendal on Semirhage and Demandred... - 04/02/2011 09:23:50 PM 1228 Views
No - 04/02/2011 11:10:00 PM 1000 Views
CLAPS *NM* - 05/02/2011 05:15:21 AM 566 Views
We will just have to disagree on this one... - 05/02/2011 06:57:36 AM 892 Views
Indeed - 05/02/2011 07:38:10 AM 883 Views
I agree with you ... especially abou the perpective issue - 05/02/2011 03:00:58 PM 983 Views
I agree with you here - 04/02/2011 08:19:35 PM 896 Views
I don't think that's true.. - 04/02/2011 08:21:38 PM 834 Views
Considering that Asmodean and Rand were using a sa'angreal... - 04/02/2011 04:55:03 AM 1095 Views
I think this is a no brainer - 04/02/2011 08:22:00 AM 1041 Views
The nice fact which is proven is the magnitude of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage... - 04/02/2011 11:32:00 AM 882 Views
Nynaeve could be at 90% or 80% when she faced Moghedien we have no way of measuring that - 04/02/2011 08:42:03 PM 879 Views
Disagree... - 04/02/2011 08:51:55 PM 955 Views
spin it all you like... I'm tired of this arument and your creative quoting. - 04/02/2011 08:56:14 PM 860 Views
The creative quoter is Fionwe, not me. You quote correctly, but your interpretations are way off... - 04/02/2011 09:05:43 PM 860 Views
Nynaeve has grown in strength, but she started nearly as strong as Moiraine! - 05/02/2011 05:35:05 AM 844 Views
Starting out at Moiraine's strength meant starting out at barely 30% of her full potential... - 05/02/2011 07:05:46 AM 897 Views
Nynaeve's strength - 05/02/2011 07:49:07 AM 953 Views
Agree, Egwene has never been as strong as Nynaeve at any stage. *NM* - 05/02/2011 03:03:25 PM 623 Views
I disagree that Moiraine is 30% of Nynaeve. Much closer to 50% of Nynaeve. EDIT - 05/02/2011 03:02:06 PM 1033 Views
Minor quibbles aside... - 05/02/2011 04:05:30 PM 1032 Views
Agreed, the exact numbers are arbitrary, I place Egwene a tad higher than you ... EDIT - 05/02/2011 04:30:00 PM 845 Views
Re: Agreed, the exact numbers are arbitrary, I place Egwene a tad higher than you ... EDIT - 05/02/2011 06:09:41 PM 980 Views
shrugs - 05/02/2011 06:46:02 PM 907 Views
Re: shrugs - 05/02/2011 08:03:37 PM 907 Views
I don't recall the Merise quote you are refering too and they have not been together in the series - 05/02/2011 09:20:56 PM 834 Views
I'm sorry, I meant the glossary entry... - 05/02/2011 10:29:46 PM 887 Views
Thanks for clarifying - 05/02/2011 11:12:19 PM 806 Views
Re: Thanks for clarifying - 06/02/2011 12:42:51 AM 866 Views
fair enough ... I can agree to Cadsuane and Bode both being 70 with Egwene and co at 80 *NM* - 06/02/2011 04:29:49 AM 481 Views
Cool! *NM* - 06/02/2011 04:18:52 PM 524 Views
Sorry, but here your entire Bell Curve goes up in smoke... - 06/02/2011 01:13:15 PM 822 Views
In fact, Moiraine is even STRONGER than I postulated in the above post... - 06/02/2011 01:22:11 PM 1215 Views
well... - 06/02/2011 02:11:02 PM 957 Views
Only a separate Bell Curve for the Age of Legends - when the average strength was higher - will work - 06/02/2011 03:29:49 PM 878 Views
Or, you know, the Aes Sedai aren't a representative sample... *NM* - 06/02/2011 04:19:22 PM 628 Views
I don't think Strength was higher in the AOL I think there were just more channelers - 06/02/2011 04:50:42 PM 934 Views
Yup. - 06/02/2011 05:30:54 PM 853 Views
Trivial - 06/02/2011 06:10:55 PM 871 Views
Uhhh... no... - 06/02/2011 04:18:19 PM 769 Views
Read these facts slowly, maybe you will grasp the implication then... - 06/02/2011 04:41:02 PM 923 Views
you are missing the fact that women like Sharina have no interest in the Tower - 06/02/2011 05:05:10 PM 954 Views
You equate random exclusions with the deliberate block exclusion of 37.5% weakest women... - 06/02/2011 05:41:47 PM 876 Views
wrong - 06/02/2011 06:08:20 PM 986 Views
That is weak logic in the extreme... - 06/02/2011 06:16:46 PM 857 Views
what I'm saying is that a representative sample of the entire population - 06/02/2011 06:40:51 PM 916 Views
Yes. *NM* - 06/02/2011 06:47:59 PM 577 Views
Yes. *NM* - 06/02/2011 06:48:00 PM 503 Views
But you don't prove that the undiscovered women are stronger. They may well be weaker... - 06/02/2011 07:26:27 PM 756 Views
Amys is far from the strongest WO! - 06/02/2011 07:37:14 PM 1068 Views
Explain the 1000 women they found in Murandy then... - 06/02/2011 06:26:46 PM 863 Views
And a 1000 years ago... - 06/02/2011 06:33:29 PM 887 Views
The only implication I grasped is that you don't grasp math... - 06/02/2011 06:21:12 PM 978 Views
Circular reasoning... - 06/02/2011 07:03:53 PM 922 Views
Agreed. - 04/02/2011 04:32:05 PM 965 Views
Agree. *NM* - 04/02/2011 05:49:05 PM 585 Views
agreed *NM* - 04/02/2011 08:27:22 PM 602 Views

Reply to Message