Sorry, but here your entire Bell Curve goes up in smoke...
Shannow Send a noteboard - 06/02/2011 01:13:15 PM
Your arbitrary scale making Nynaeve only an 85 is laughable to begin with, and assuming the strongest AS are maybe in the 30s when the Author himself speaks of a bell curve distribution is even more astounding. The quotes and scales work just as easily and map better to a Bell Curve if you have
Lanfear: 100
Cyndane/Aliva:98
Graendal/Sharina: 97
Nynaeve: 96
Semirhage: 95
Mesaana:94
Moghedien: 88
Egwene: 80
Bode: 75
Cadsuane:65
Moiraine: 45
Verin: 30
Daigian:15
Morgase: 1
Suddenly you you start seeing a mass of women in the range between Cadsuane and say Verin (the bulk of where a Bell Curve average would fall) then a tapering off at the weaker end of the BC as you get down toward Daigian and even more so as you head down to Morgase.
on RJs scale that would make Level 21 Semirhage and up, Moghedien and Mesaana at level 20, Egwene 19, Bode 18, Cadsuane 17, Moiraine would probably be the lower end of 15 and Verin 12 and Daigian the bottom part of level 9, probably Daigian is about 2x Sorilea who would be like a level 4 or 5.
RJ also claimed that there were "several levels" of male strength above the 21 female levels ... so Rand on this scale would be something like a 125 ... give women a 25% dexterity bonus to compensate for effectiveness and suddenly you have Nynaeve at the same effective level as someone such as Sammael and Graendal effectively the same as a Demandred.
Egwene would be about 80% as effectively strong as Rand in ultimate Potential, but only have about 60% of his raw strength.
When she met up with him in TSR she was probably around a 48 (slightly stronger than Moiraine) to his 110 in Raw terms (he was already in FS male range) ... Elayne was significantly weaker than Egwene when this event took place so she was likely no more than a 25 ... and they were not linked ... it's no wonder they felt like kittens being manhandled and it would explain why Egwene thinks Nynaeve could come close to the effects she was seeing from Rand ... at this point Nynaeve was a mid-80s level and with a dexterity bonus would have been close to Rand on an Effective level, Further, it explains why Lanfear was MORE effective than Rand when he dueled her a book later. He still had room to grown and she was at maximum effective strength, thus he was dueling someone stronger ... and losing, based on that and a huge gap in skill.
It also explains how Egwene can be as strong as Melaine and Amys combined yet still have a significant gap up to Nynaeve and why Reanne would have considered Alivia "considerably" stronger than Nynaeve in POD ... Nynaeve at 90% of her potential would feel significantly weaker than Alivia to a woman who's total strength is around a 40 ... the difference between Alivia and Nynave would be something like 25% of Reanne's total strength, where from Alivia's view point Nynaeve is only about 10% weaker than her and still has room to grow.
And it illustrates the authors comment that Egwene was a step down from the Forsaken ... on your scale she's like 5 steps down.
Lanfear: 100
Cyndane/Aliva:98
Graendal/Sharina: 97
Nynaeve: 96
Semirhage: 95
Mesaana:94
Moghedien: 88
Egwene: 80
Bode: 75
Cadsuane:65
Moiraine: 45
Verin: 30
Daigian:15
Morgase: 1
Suddenly you you start seeing a mass of women in the range between Cadsuane and say Verin (the bulk of where a Bell Curve average would fall) then a tapering off at the weaker end of the BC as you get down toward Daigian and even more so as you head down to Morgase.
on RJs scale that would make Level 21 Semirhage and up, Moghedien and Mesaana at level 20, Egwene 19, Bode 18, Cadsuane 17, Moiraine would probably be the lower end of 15 and Verin 12 and Daigian the bottom part of level 9, probably Daigian is about 2x Sorilea who would be like a level 4 or 5.
RJ also claimed that there were "several levels" of male strength above the 21 female levels ... so Rand on this scale would be something like a 125 ... give women a 25% dexterity bonus to compensate for effectiveness and suddenly you have Nynaeve at the same effective level as someone such as Sammael and Graendal effectively the same as a Demandred.
Egwene would be about 80% as effectively strong as Rand in ultimate Potential, but only have about 60% of his raw strength.
When she met up with him in TSR she was probably around a 48 (slightly stronger than Moiraine) to his 110 in Raw terms (he was already in FS male range) ... Elayne was significantly weaker than Egwene when this event took place so she was likely no more than a 25 ... and they were not linked ... it's no wonder they felt like kittens being manhandled and it would explain why Egwene thinks Nynaeve could come close to the effects she was seeing from Rand ... at this point Nynaeve was a mid-80s level and with a dexterity bonus would have been close to Rand on an Effective level, Further, it explains why Lanfear was MORE effective than Rand when he dueled her a book later. He still had room to grown and she was at maximum effective strength, thus he was dueling someone stronger ... and losing, based on that and a huge gap in skill.
It also explains how Egwene can be as strong as Melaine and Amys combined yet still have a significant gap up to Nynaeve and why Reanne would have considered Alivia "considerably" stronger than Nynaeve in POD ... Nynaeve at 90% of her potential would feel significantly weaker than Alivia to a woman who's total strength is around a 40 ... the difference between Alivia and Nynave would be something like 25% of Reanne's total strength, where from Alivia's view point Nynaeve is only about 10% weaker than her and still has room to grow.
And it illustrates the authors comment that Egwene was a step down from the Forsaken ... on your scale she's like 5 steps down.
On the Bell Curve, the average strength woman would be on 50. That puts the average strength woman at slightly above Moiraine's 45 on your list.
And because it's a Bell Curve, it means that the majority of women fall around Moiraine's level in strength, with AS MANY above her as below her.
So, to put it simply, there should be as many women between Moiraine and Moghedien as there are between Moiraine and Dagian.
In fact, because Moirane is slighly BELOW 50 on your list, there should be MORE women between Moiraine and Moghedien than there are between Moiraine and Dagian.
Only then would your version of the Bell Curve make sense.
Unfortunately, the observational evidence points to something far different. Among all the Aes Sedai, all the Aiel Wise Ones and all the Sea Folk,, we see that the VAST MAJORITY of women fall below Moiraine in strength. In fact, among ALL Aes Sedai, only a handful are as strong as Moiraine, and only the wondergirls and Cadsuane are stronger.
The picture that emerges is one of Moiraine being FAR stronger than the average woman, with about 90% or more of channelers falling BELOW her. This puts her at almost two standard deviations above the mean.
Therefore, if you want to formulate a true Bell Curve, then 50 should be around the strength of the average Aes Sedai, with Moiraine being a 75 or more. Meaning that Moiraine is 75% as strong as Lanfear.
That demonstrates quite clearly the absurdity of trying to fit the observed channeling strength distribution into a normal Bell Curve.
Proof that Asmodean's effective One Power strength is greater than Moghedien's...
03/02/2011 03:22:42 PM
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Huh?
03/02/2011 04:08:29 PM
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Why do you deliberately misquote the text?
03/02/2011 04:12:50 PM
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You're deliberately being obtuse... as usual...
03/02/2011 10:07:09 PM
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Right. So Egwene can shield someone of Egwene's own strength, plus Elayne, AND weave a dozen flows..
03/02/2011 10:26:27 PM
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03/02/2011 10:46:40 PM
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No. Egwene is very close to her full potential at the time...
03/02/2011 11:44:20 PM
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Don't agree
04/02/2011 08:30:02 AM
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Fair comment, but my question then is:
04/02/2011 11:26:25 AM
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I think the WO and Moiraine also Force Egwene as they know what's coming and need her
04/02/2011 03:55:46 PM
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It is specifically stated that Egwene was forced by the rigours of the damane training...
04/02/2011 05:15:20 PM
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Egwene has been continually forced...
04/02/2011 06:02:08 PM
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The direct quotes contradict you...
04/02/2011 06:23:03 PM
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actually the quote substantiates that Egwene is only slightly stronger than Moiraine in TSR
04/02/2011 07:51:10 PM
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I think you may have misused the term - RJ meant 'effective' to mean something a bit different.
03/02/2011 04:40:41 PM
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Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean.
03/02/2011 05:30:15 PM
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Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean.
03/02/2011 05:45:30 PM
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Re: I think you are mistaking what RJ meant effective to mean.
03/02/2011 06:31:34 PM
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We still don't know who is effectively stronger, and not sure if Asmo was equal to Rand by the end.
03/02/2011 06:58:14 PM
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See my post above, I would say Asmo is Weaker than Moggy... *NM*
03/02/2011 07:10:07 PM
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I'm not certain either way. I think it all depends on the terms being used.
03/02/2011 07:22:01 PM
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Effective strength means who can make the bigger fireball, the stronger shield, the thicker balefire
03/02/2011 07:42:17 PM
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My impression of your view, in general, is that...
03/02/2011 07:33:37 PM
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How...
03/02/2011 10:15:34 PM
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If Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did to them, then I rest my case...
03/02/2011 10:36:46 PM
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Re: If Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did to them, then I rest my case...
03/02/2011 10:50:57 PM
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Got you now...
03/02/2011 11:32:49 PM
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You're clearly delusional...
04/02/2011 12:59:26 AM
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You sound ridiculous
04/02/2011 02:05:18 AM
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Where on earth does it say Nynaeve could do to Egwene and Elayne what Rand did?
04/02/2011 08:06:48 PM
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Re: How...
04/02/2011 08:34:21 AM
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They're very close now...
04/02/2011 05:46:48 PM
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That is unfortunately not true...
04/02/2011 06:02:34 PM
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It is...
04/02/2011 06:05:05 PM
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Re: It is...
04/02/2011 06:31:32 PM
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Yup...
04/02/2011 08:20:33 PM
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Semirhage hated Lanfear, but dared not act against her strength...
04/02/2011 08:29:24 PM
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yet Graendal showed a lot of respect for Semirhage ... even assumed she was the most
04/02/2011 08:53:05 PM
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Graendal on Semirhage and Demandred...
04/02/2011 09:23:50 PM
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No
04/02/2011 11:10:00 PM
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We will just have to disagree on this one...
05/02/2011 06:57:36 AM
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I agree with you here
04/02/2011 08:19:35 PM
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I don't think that's true..
04/02/2011 08:21:38 PM
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the evidence is that Aginor burnt out trying to channel the Eye and Rand didn't
04/02/2011 08:23:50 PM
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I think this is a no brainer
04/02/2011 08:22:00 AM
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The nice fact which is proven is the magnitude of the gap between Moghedien and Semirhage...
04/02/2011 11:32:00 AM
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Nynaeve could be at 90% or 80% when she faced Moghedien we have no way of measuring that
04/02/2011 08:42:03 PM
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Disagree...
04/02/2011 08:51:55 PM
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spin it all you like... I'm tired of this arument and your creative quoting.
04/02/2011 08:56:14 PM
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The creative quoter is Fionwe, not me. You quote correctly, but your interpretations are way off...
04/02/2011 09:05:43 PM
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Nynaeve has grown in strength, but she started nearly as strong as Moiraine!
05/02/2011 05:35:05 AM
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Starting out at Moiraine's strength meant starting out at barely 30% of her full potential...
05/02/2011 07:05:46 AM
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Nynaeve's strength
05/02/2011 07:49:07 AM
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Agree, Egwene has never been as strong as Nynaeve at any stage. *NM*
05/02/2011 03:03:25 PM
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I disagree that Moiraine is 30% of Nynaeve. Much closer to 50% of Nynaeve. EDIT
05/02/2011 03:02:06 PM
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Minor quibbles aside...
05/02/2011 04:05:30 PM
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Agreed, the exact numbers are arbitrary, I place Egwene a tad higher than you ... EDIT
05/02/2011 04:30:00 PM
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Re: Agreed, the exact numbers are arbitrary, I place Egwene a tad higher than you ... EDIT
05/02/2011 06:09:41 PM
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shrugs
05/02/2011 06:46:02 PM
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Re: shrugs
05/02/2011 08:03:37 PM
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I don't recall the Merise quote you are refering too and they have not been together in the series
05/02/2011 09:20:56 PM
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I'm sorry, I meant the glossary entry...
05/02/2011 10:29:46 PM
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Thanks for clarifying
05/02/2011 11:12:19 PM
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Re: Thanks for clarifying
06/02/2011 12:42:51 AM
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fair enough ... I can agree to Cadsuane and Bode both being 70 with Egwene and co at 80 *NM*
06/02/2011 04:29:49 AM
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Sorry, but here your entire Bell Curve goes up in smoke...
06/02/2011 01:13:15 PM
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In fact, Moiraine is even STRONGER than I postulated in the above post...
06/02/2011 01:22:11 PM
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well...
06/02/2011 02:11:02 PM
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Only a separate Bell Curve for the Age of Legends - when the average strength was higher - will work
06/02/2011 03:29:49 PM
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Or, you know, the Aes Sedai aren't a representative sample... *NM*
06/02/2011 04:19:22 PM
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I don't think Strength was higher in the AOL I think there were just more channelers
06/02/2011 04:50:42 PM
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Uhhh... no...
06/02/2011 04:18:19 PM
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Read these facts slowly, maybe you will grasp the implication then...
06/02/2011 04:41:02 PM
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you are missing the fact that women like Sharina have no interest in the Tower
06/02/2011 05:05:10 PM
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You equate random exclusions with the deliberate block exclusion of 37.5% weakest women...
06/02/2011 05:41:47 PM
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wrong
06/02/2011 06:08:20 PM
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That is weak logic in the extreme...
06/02/2011 06:16:46 PM
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what I'm saying is that a representative sample of the entire population
06/02/2011 06:40:51 PM
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But you don't prove that the undiscovered women are stronger. They may well be weaker...
06/02/2011 07:26:27 PM
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The only implication I grasped is that you don't grasp math...
06/02/2011 06:21:12 PM
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Circular reasoning...
06/02/2011 07:03:53 PM
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No, reasoning based on facts and what RJ said, both of which you ignore...
06/02/2011 07:34:21 PM
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If you're going to ignore direct quotes, then we may as well stop right now...
06/02/2011 08:42:40 PM
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off tangent question: Has Nynaeve yet to reach full potential or did she already after being ...
04/02/2011 08:39:29 PM
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I think the general concensus is that after the CK she was forced to her full potential
05/02/2011 03:44:29 PM
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