The only time I care about the motive or purpose for a lie in game is if I think the person might be innocent and trying to lay a trap for the DFs, so that I can either aid it or avoid it, depending on my alignment. I can't see how that would apply in this case.
I found your statement unlikely, I'd point out that I was also the person who presented evidence of how the claim was not necessarily far-fetched (no 'miller' in any message title) so I can't see why I'm obliged to explain your potential motive for lying. Considering the odds of anyone else raising the 'no miller in title' point were reasonably slim, I had no reason to bring it up if I am, as you seem to be trying to indicate in recent posts, trying to railroad you. Honestly, I'm trying to find some advantage to keeping you alive, because both my intuition and my logic say we're better off lynching you, and it's not like we have alternate candidates lying around.
The most obvious reason that comes to mind is it was a kneejerk reaction to the Yuna connection, obviously you had a reason, thought it supported your case, or you wouldn't have posted about it, it wasn't an idle comment amongst other things, it was the entire post. Post-game you can confirm it was unknown or admit that you did, right now I only know that it seems unlikely to me, but I do not want this to become about 'did FT know' because then we attaching your guilt or innocence to that vehicle. If you are lying about it, then it's an indicator of guilt, the reverse is not true. If you are telling the truth it has no bearing on your guilt or innocence, except in the tangential sense that it might indicate Gher didn't know and explain why the role might or might not be in here. The point remains that if Gher was following the game after he died (likely, he usually does) then he would have Yuna's claim to deal with and not know if it was true or false, not for sure. It seems highly unlikely he'd plan a miller into the game while that claim was active, and it seems moderatly unlikely he would have retooled and put it into the game in the fairly short period of time between post game and when we got our message RBs. This is further compounded by his statements about how he'd been prepping the game for some time. How else should I be reacting to this? I've already said I've given a great deal of consideration to using a day 1 miller claim as a DF, I've pointed out that it's not uncommon for people to try it.
One thing that isn't debateable is that I consider it to be a legitimate and logical tactic, which is why I'm still pursuing this. It has it's flaws but most do and it never stops people from trying them, even the more experienced players. I set up last games plan and totally forgot you and I had previously discussed using a 'no kill' stratagem. It's never about getting the perfect plan anyway, it's all in the execution. It's seems perfectly believable to me that someone would try this, after all, no one has voted for you yet and one players has said he will not, basically vindicating this as a strategy. That it hasn't been done in this forum is if anything a greater reason to be suspicious, since you'd have no particular reason to think people might have a predisposition to assume you were using it as a shield. I'm pretty sure if I weren't still pounding the drum on this there would have been a tacit consensus to 'let it drop for now' clearing you of day 1 lynch, some have already said as much, and you know how suspicion is, if someone survives the day they are most suspect it tends to go downhill from there, people want to explore new options, analyze the new data. If you survive today you will not be lynched, except maybe on the final day when it's 2-1 or something.
It is at best a dubious RC, this presumably, be you DF or townie, is why you made it now, on day 1. It also remains that we can not verify the role by any means. If we do have a tracker, I do not want to tie them up checking on you, day after day. Additionally, we have no other viable targets, you are better than random. Every time we push on someone else, we're as likely to pick a role as a DF, more likely than normal in all probability, since the miller role as anti-town is likely compensating for either more town roles than standard (making it more likely we're target a role and force them to RC on day 1) or less DF/SK/cult roles (making it less likely we'll randomly lock on to one of them.
We get something out of it too, some have been fairly vocal in supporting you. If you die a townie, they gain prob town status, if you die a DF, they get a bit of extra suspicion. This will not be a wasted lynch whatever the result and I put you at around 50/50. I wish I could say I thought you were guilty but I don't, it's really a coinflip for me. No bandwagon had formed on you, nobody's lining up to lynch you. We're simply stuck in a conundrum because there is simply no evidence and can be no evidence, to support or contradict your claim, we've no alternative but to look at your pre-game and Gher's pre-game knowledge and guess how it might effect this situation because it is all we have.
I found your statement unlikely, I'd point out that I was also the person who presented evidence of how the claim was not necessarily far-fetched (no 'miller' in any message title) so I can't see why I'm obliged to explain your potential motive for lying. Considering the odds of anyone else raising the 'no miller in title' point were reasonably slim, I had no reason to bring it up if I am, as you seem to be trying to indicate in recent posts, trying to railroad you. Honestly, I'm trying to find some advantage to keeping you alive, because both my intuition and my logic say we're better off lynching you, and it's not like we have alternate candidates lying around.
The most obvious reason that comes to mind is it was a kneejerk reaction to the Yuna connection, obviously you had a reason, thought it supported your case, or you wouldn't have posted about it, it wasn't an idle comment amongst other things, it was the entire post. Post-game you can confirm it was unknown or admit that you did, right now I only know that it seems unlikely to me, but I do not want this to become about 'did FT know' because then we attaching your guilt or innocence to that vehicle. If you are lying about it, then it's an indicator of guilt, the reverse is not true. If you are telling the truth it has no bearing on your guilt or innocence, except in the tangential sense that it might indicate Gher didn't know and explain why the role might or might not be in here. The point remains that if Gher was following the game after he died (likely, he usually does) then he would have Yuna's claim to deal with and not know if it was true or false, not for sure. It seems highly unlikely he'd plan a miller into the game while that claim was active, and it seems moderatly unlikely he would have retooled and put it into the game in the fairly short period of time between post game and when we got our message RBs. This is further compounded by his statements about how he'd been prepping the game for some time. How else should I be reacting to this? I've already said I've given a great deal of consideration to using a day 1 miller claim as a DF, I've pointed out that it's not uncommon for people to try it.
One thing that isn't debateable is that I consider it to be a legitimate and logical tactic, which is why I'm still pursuing this. It has it's flaws but most do and it never stops people from trying them, even the more experienced players. I set up last games plan and totally forgot you and I had previously discussed using a 'no kill' stratagem. It's never about getting the perfect plan anyway, it's all in the execution. It's seems perfectly believable to me that someone would try this, after all, no one has voted for you yet and one players has said he will not, basically vindicating this as a strategy. That it hasn't been done in this forum is if anything a greater reason to be suspicious, since you'd have no particular reason to think people might have a predisposition to assume you were using it as a shield. I'm pretty sure if I weren't still pounding the drum on this there would have been a tacit consensus to 'let it drop for now' clearing you of day 1 lynch, some have already said as much, and you know how suspicion is, if someone survives the day they are most suspect it tends to go downhill from there, people want to explore new options, analyze the new data. If you survive today you will not be lynched, except maybe on the final day when it's 2-1 or something.
It is at best a dubious RC, this presumably, be you DF or townie, is why you made it now, on day 1. It also remains that we can not verify the role by any means. If we do have a tracker, I do not want to tie them up checking on you, day after day. Additionally, we have no other viable targets, you are better than random. Every time we push on someone else, we're as likely to pick a role as a DF, more likely than normal in all probability, since the miller role as anti-town is likely compensating for either more town roles than standard (making it more likely we're target a role and force them to RC on day 1) or less DF/SK/cult roles (making it less likely we'll randomly lock on to one of them.
We get something out of it too, some have been fairly vocal in supporting you. If you die a townie, they gain prob town status, if you die a DF, they get a bit of extra suspicion. This will not be a wasted lynch whatever the result and I put you at around 50/50. I wish I could say I thought you were guilty but I don't, it's really a coinflip for me. No bandwagon had formed on you, nobody's lining up to lynch you. We're simply stuck in a conundrum because there is simply no evidence and can be no evidence, to support or contradict your claim, we've no alternative but to look at your pre-game and Gher's pre-game knowledge and guess how it might effect this situation because it is all we have.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafo Mafia 4: Day 1 has ended.
27/01/2010 05:53:50 PM
- 3134 Views
This is a confirmation of the prompt receival of said role message.
27/01/2010 08:30:45 PM
- 1270 Views
You made it up
27/01/2010 09:01:31 PM
- 1227 Views
Hmm ...
27/01/2010 09:21:59 PM
- 1313 Views
Ha.
28/01/2010 01:28:27 AM
- 1156 Views
It sounds like a real word.
28/01/2010 01:55:58 AM
- 1240 Views
You know, I'm still irritated we haven't been able to come up with a good R1 system
28/01/2010 07:08:22 AM
- 1190 Views
Well, lacking anything else...
28/01/2010 11:58:25 PM
- 1343 Views
I haven't the faintest idea what they mean.
29/01/2010 01:30:19 AM
- 1270 Views
Not really
29/01/2010 02:27:05 AM
- 1307 Views
Let's try something
29/01/2010 02:47:30 AM
- 1220 Views
alrighty then
29/01/2010 03:29:51 AM
- 1277 Views
That's sufficient, thanks
29/01/2010 03:48:11 AM
- 1138 Views
Yea, my message has all that.
29/01/2010 03:56:52 AM
- 1290 Views
Probably
29/01/2010 04:10:42 AM
- 1199 Views
Re: Probably
29/01/2010 07:30:48 AM
- 1154 Views
True- most DFs would wait a bit, and be like the 4th or 5th to jump in
29/01/2010 08:19:43 AM
- 1227 Views
I've got MPD
29/01/2010 04:22:00 AM
- 1246 Views
Surprise, surprise: I do too.
29/01/2010 06:21:04 AM
- 1208 Views
Remember when we killed the Serial Killer on Day 1? That was fun. Let's do that! *NM*
29/01/2010 08:20:24 AM
- 765 Views
I have MPD and number under 14. *NM*
29/01/2010 06:18:59 AM
- 834 Views
I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:14:17 AM
- 1207 Views
Re: I like to think of the first kill as a sacrifice to the Gods of Mafia
30/01/2010 04:27:53 AM
- 1193 Views
High priests cannot be sacrificed!
30/01/2010 04:53:38 PM
- 1153 Views
Some cultures, they make the best sacrifices
30/01/2010 05:47:46 PM
- 1234 Views
I want to roleclaim.
30/01/2010 07:08:11 PM
- 1218 Views
That is, well, surprising
30/01/2010 08:28:04 PM
- 1288 Views
Yeah, but I think it's best to do it now.
30/01/2010 09:38:49 PM
- 1171 Views
Hm. I wonder if we're all robots inside of a Mafia simulator. *NM*
30/01/2010 11:20:25 PM
- 706 Views
Well, I'm back...
31/01/2010 01:43:17 AM
- 1223 Views
Why do fencers keep appearing without me knowing of it?!?
31/01/2010 02:48:22 AM
- 1234 Views
Oh, and I had my first real tournament today...
31/01/2010 03:23:45 AM
- 1238 Views
Eh. Just don't listen to Issac too much.
31/01/2010 04:47:53 AM
- 1194 Views
I wanna say F-T, just cause I hate Millers.
31/01/2010 05:10:07 AM
- 1184 Views
But do you think a DF would try something that DFs already did in the game we just played?
31/01/2010 05:53:24 AM
- 1213 Views
And on a third hand...
31/01/2010 07:00:22 AM
- 1290 Views
So... back to neutral. *NM*
31/01/2010 03:27:58 PM
- 658 Views
You don't find that statement dubious?
31/01/2010 04:14:47 PM
- 1195 Views
I knew Yunalseca was a Darkfriend...
31/01/2010 07:17:33 PM
- 1174 Views
Everyone! Deep breaths...
31/01/2010 11:50:39 PM
- 1183 Views
That's a pretty big thing to forget though.
01/02/2010 01:39:44 AM
- 1157 Views
Who said anything about forgetting?
01/02/2010 02:53:49 AM
- 1227 Views
It brings you protection from guilty Cop results. *NM*
01/02/2010 03:01:22 AM
- 843 Views
No...
01/02/2010 06:25:07 AM
- 1218 Views
Man... I hate defending people I'm not sure about
01/02/2010 07:14:13 AM
- 1214 Views
I agree with beet here.
01/02/2010 07:42:12 AM
- 1176 Views
Offer alternatives then
01/02/2010 11:18:47 AM
- 1233 Views
I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games
01/02/2010 02:23:26 PM
- 1220 Views
I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 05:55:11 AM
- 1251 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 03:34:10 PM
- 1244 Views
Tracker is a role that sees who his target performs a Night Action on...
31/01/2010 03:49:24 PM
- 1096 Views
Re: I agree, more or less
31/01/2010 04:19:33 PM
- 1181 Views
Eh. I think this is going to end like Hopper.
31/01/2010 11:58:52 PM
- 1186 Views
What I don't like is the fact that Millers are often not told they're Millers.
01/02/2010 12:08:14 AM
- 1211 Views
Well, he could still be Mafia and have appropriate flavor.
01/02/2010 01:46:58 AM
- 1209 Views
We can't just lynch Isaac on the off chance that he might be a DF.
31/01/2010 05:42:08 AM
- 1213 Views
Alright, from my reading,
31/01/2010 10:53:52 PM
- 1204 Views
RE: I didn't mean we shouldn't reference strategies from earlier games (horizontal scroll avoidance)
01/02/2010 02:46:35 PM
- 1299 Views
I really just meant that I don't think F-T's claim of not knowing about Yuna's claim is
01/02/2010 06:16:11 PM
- 1186 Views
You still haven't explained what the purpose of such a lie would be.
01/02/2010 07:15:35 PM
- 1147 Views
I think the rationale was this:
01/02/2010 07:38:41 PM
- 1117 Views
Beg Pardon?
01/02/2010 08:07:20 PM
- 1186 Views
It's true, Isaac likes to be a leader, rather than a doer. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:02 PM
- 735 Views
Coward. *NM*
01/02/2010 11:17:21 PM
- 769 Views
Er... what just happened, here? *NM*
02/02/2010 12:55:51 AM
- 807 Views
I made a pointless post, decided to turn it into a semi-sarcastic insult.
02/02/2010 01:27:48 AM
- 1187 Views
There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 09:20:57 PM
- 1189 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:03:57 PM
- 1200 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 10:33:49 PM
- 1271 Views
Re: There's not really anything to explain
01/02/2010 11:11:37 PM
- 1235 Views
Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 12:01:48 AM
- 1164 Views
Re: Maybe you should ask one of the others to explain this to me
02/02/2010 01:15:41 AM
- 1204 Views
Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:03:28 PM
- 1343 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target
01/02/2010 08:20:06 PM
- 1129 Views
Re: Right, so: A New Target *NM*
01/02/2010 08:48:25 PM
- 672 Views
Message get eaten? *NM*
01/02/2010 09:21:34 PM
- 712 Views
Apparantly... It was just a minor thing, lemme see if I remember...
02/02/2010 12:44:28 AM
- 1204 Views
Right, so: Defending Myself
01/02/2010 11:30:38 PM
- 1303 Views
Hmm...more accusations beyond beet's
02/02/2010 06:02:51 AM
- 1161 Views
Fair question, but it's actually pretty straightforward.
02/02/2010 04:41:18 PM
- 1325 Views
Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 04:54:54 PM
- 1112 Views
Re: Your logic isn't terrible...
02/02/2010 05:42:43 PM
- 1161 Views
Re: The random thing
02/02/2010 04:59:42 PM
- 1344 Views
Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 08:48:19 PM
- 1291 Views
Re: Nah, I anticipated this would make me the prime lynch candidate.
02/02/2010 09:23:43 PM
- 1191 Views
Okay, so I've been reading, but I kept meaning to post on my comp. Sorry.
02/02/2010 06:21:12 AM
- 1235 Views
I never tried to stop any discussion
02/02/2010 12:46:54 PM
- 1219 Views
Like I said, I don't find it very suspicious, but it was just something I had seen.
02/02/2010 11:14:53 PM
- 1226 Views
Kronin is at least as suspicious as Issac, or F-T
02/02/2010 05:09:56 PM
- 1206 Views
That's pretty bold claim of intention.
02/02/2010 05:18:40 PM
- 1187 Views
Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 04:36:52 AM
- 1272 Views
Re: Vote: Fanatic-Templar
03/02/2010 03:13:57 PM
- 1312 Views
Speaking of time...
03/02/2010 03:28:42 PM
- 1258 Views
Only if it starts to grind to a halt. *NM*
03/02/2010 04:50:32 PM
- 786 Views
Re: Only if it starts to grind to a halt.
03/02/2010 06:52:54 PM
- 1266 Views
Er... IS it active? I feel like we've kinda exhausted everything
03/02/2010 11:19:29 PM
- 1135 Views
Hahaha. well, it was!
04/02/2010 12:59:13 AM
- 1145 Views
"No lynch" is a bad idea. At the very least, let's lynch someone random *NM*
04/02/2010 04:07:00 AM
- 725 Views
Everybody knows my perspective on no lynches...or at least I suspect they do. *NM*
04/02/2010 04:09:17 AM
- 787 Views
So you'd rather lynch someone random over F-T? Why?
04/02/2010 04:35:40 AM
- 1258 Views
Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 06:58:15 AM
- 1221 Views
Re: Because I think F-T is almost definitely not a DF
04/02/2010 07:07:37 AM
- 1105 Views
Well, yeah- a chance of getting a DF is better than no chance at all
04/02/2010 07:04:27 PM
- 1203 Views
But there is a chance F-T is a DF.
04/02/2010 07:34:37 PM
- 1161 Views
Fair enough...
04/02/2010 07:49:26 PM
- 1159 Views
I agree with D_K actually
04/02/2010 08:32:09 PM
- 1242 Views
You think F-T has less than a 29% (4/14) chance to be a DF?
04/02/2010 08:55:34 PM
- 1128 Views
If a given random person is 30%, then yes, I think F-T is 29% or less
04/02/2010 11:20:26 PM
- 1218 Views
I regret that I have only one life to give to the Light...
04/02/2010 11:00:56 PM
- 1228 Views
You know, you're still at L-3.
04/02/2010 11:14:40 PM
- 1386 Views
L-2, as it were.
04/02/2010 11:41:10 PM
- 1170 Views
Just had to make me incorrect?
04/02/2010 11:55:02 PM
- 1131 Views
I couldn't resist. *NM*
05/02/2010 01:07:59 AM
- 726 Views
05/02/2010 01:15:51 AM
- 1240 Views
Yeah, but I wasn't sure if I'd still be alive next time I came around .
05/02/2010 03:12:19 AM
- 1167 Views
05/02/2010 12:20:04 AM
- 1241 Views
I don't anyone will target you with a night action tonight, frankly.
05/02/2010 03:14:26 AM
- 1214 Views