Since this comes up, you can not have a game that is just town vs cult. The DFs achieve victory by killing people off, a cult by conversion. A DF kills a townie, a cult gets more by conversion, they turn someone into a lynch voter for them too, while keeping their effective NK by conversion. A cult therefore only is viable with a DF element, since cults lose the converter when they nominate a DF unknowingly for conversion.
You also have potential defections in cult vs town. Essentially, unless you got the cult in embryo, their victory is an absolute thing.
Example:
Day 1 has 12 players, 1 cult leader and 11 townies. A townie is lynched and someone converted on the first day, now 11-1 is 9-2, day 2 probably ends with a townie lynch, 7-3, the cult now has a powerful vote ability, ensuring a high prob of another townie lynch, day 4 begins 5-4, a lynch of a cult member is still unlikely, but would make day 5 begin 4-4, victory, barring that 3-5, cult victory again.
So unless we have a number of roles designed to combat cults, we can not possible have a cult vs crew without DF option, and those anti-cult roles have done us no favors by failing to alert us to the option formally.
Since the option of a cult only comes up to explain the lack of a NK, as opposed to cult and DF, we can dismiss this option.
Now, this whole mess is started up by nobody dying last night. This is silly. There are any number of reasons, forgetting my own evidence on the matter, to explain why nobody died.
1. Someone was docced and attacked, unlikely but not flat-random unlikely, the doc and the DFs are more likely to target higher profile players, bringing the odds of this occuring down to realistic values. Much better than the 1 in 14/15 the doc had of picking the right person randomly, or 1 in 15 if they could target themself. Atleast 1 in 10, maybe 1 in 3 or 4, pretty realistic really.
2. A roleblocker, that our RB's have tended to be DFs doesn't change the fact that RBs can and often are town. The odds off this are lower than the doc-NK scenario since the DF attacker is as likely, more likely even, to be a more obscure player. When I am a DF I have others do the killing because I consider myself likely to be tracked, it also isn't unusual for the actual killer to be killed in the attack or identified, so our high-profile (i.e. the notorious strategists) will avoid making the kill themselves, no point losing your principal tactician if things go bad. So the RB option is a lower chance, but not too low, a townie RB had a 1 in 14 odd of blocking an attack last night. hardly ridicolous.
3. A bulletproof vest. We have seen this role, had a mor eprominent player had this role as a one-shot, they might well employ it on night 1, figuring that assassins are most likely to go for them in the general day 1 randomness, which usually involves the assassination of the more senior players.
4. Inability to NK. The DFs might not be able to NK on night 1, this isn't very common, but also not rare either. IIRC in game 8 the vig and mafia don both had one-shot NK ability that could not be used on night 1.
I repeat my original comment by the way, I was acted on, it was interrupted. The nature of the action is unknown to me. It could have been a cult conversion, but I sincerely doubt that. Don't bother asking me about my own role or lack there of, by the way, I won't answer that under these circumstances, considering it a bad idea, unless I felt lynch-threatened and a lynch of me today is highly unliklely. I'd advise people not to speculate about it either.
With that out of the way, we have a pair of votes on the table, and a number of players who have been silent, I ask again for everyone to speak up, and not just and empty "I'm here" before you get modkilled, frankly I'm very suspicious of the people being silent too. Besides the fact that participation is expected in this game, your silence is anti-town.
You also have potential defections in cult vs town. Essentially, unless you got the cult in embryo, their victory is an absolute thing.
Example:
Day 1 has 12 players, 1 cult leader and 11 townies. A townie is lynched and someone converted on the first day, now 11-1 is 9-2, day 2 probably ends with a townie lynch, 7-3, the cult now has a powerful vote ability, ensuring a high prob of another townie lynch, day 4 begins 5-4, a lynch of a cult member is still unlikely, but would make day 5 begin 4-4, victory, barring that 3-5, cult victory again.
So unless we have a number of roles designed to combat cults, we can not possible have a cult vs crew without DF option, and those anti-cult roles have done us no favors by failing to alert us to the option formally.
Since the option of a cult only comes up to explain the lack of a NK, as opposed to cult and DF, we can dismiss this option.
Now, this whole mess is started up by nobody dying last night. This is silly. There are any number of reasons, forgetting my own evidence on the matter, to explain why nobody died.
1. Someone was docced and attacked, unlikely but not flat-random unlikely, the doc and the DFs are more likely to target higher profile players, bringing the odds of this occuring down to realistic values. Much better than the 1 in 14/15 the doc had of picking the right person randomly, or 1 in 15 if they could target themself. Atleast 1 in 10, maybe 1 in 3 or 4, pretty realistic really.
2. A roleblocker, that our RB's have tended to be DFs doesn't change the fact that RBs can and often are town. The odds off this are lower than the doc-NK scenario since the DF attacker is as likely, more likely even, to be a more obscure player. When I am a DF I have others do the killing because I consider myself likely to be tracked, it also isn't unusual for the actual killer to be killed in the attack or identified, so our high-profile (i.e. the notorious strategists) will avoid making the kill themselves, no point losing your principal tactician if things go bad. So the RB option is a lower chance, but not too low, a townie RB had a 1 in 14 odd of blocking an attack last night. hardly ridicolous.
3. A bulletproof vest. We have seen this role, had a mor eprominent player had this role as a one-shot, they might well employ it on night 1, figuring that assassins are most likely to go for them in the general day 1 randomness, which usually involves the assassination of the more senior players.
4. Inability to NK. The DFs might not be able to NK on night 1, this isn't very common, but also not rare either. IIRC in game 8 the vig and mafia don both had one-shot NK ability that could not be used on night 1.
I repeat my original comment by the way, I was acted on, it was interrupted. The nature of the action is unknown to me. It could have been a cult conversion, but I sincerely doubt that. Don't bother asking me about my own role or lack there of, by the way, I won't answer that under these circumstances, considering it a bad idea, unless I felt lynch-threatened and a lynch of me today is highly unliklely. I'd advise people not to speculate about it either.
With that out of the way, we have a pair of votes on the table, and a number of players who have been silent, I ask again for everyone to speak up, and not just and empty "I'm here" before you get modkilled, frankly I'm very suspicious of the people being silent too. Besides the fact that participation is expected in this game, your silence is anti-town.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Rafia in Space - Day 2 - Well....
07/11/2009 06:26:13 PM
- 2142 Views
Interesting turn of events.
07/11/2009 11:23:05 PM
- 793 Views
It would matter which it was...
08/11/2009 03:07:02 AM
- 631 Views
Should we decide on who to hypocop?
08/11/2009 08:04:24 AM
- 721 Views
I think randomly is the way to go today.
08/11/2009 04:16:30 PM
- 828 Views
Re: I think randomly is the way to go today.
08/11/2009 04:36:53 PM
- 876 Views
Well, yeah, that's the small risk of hypocopping- and why everyone should try to be random
08/11/2009 09:11:59 PM
- 880 Views
Yes, I thought it over and realized that without hypocopping we don't find the Mafia either. *NM*
09/11/2009 06:52:14 AM
- 291 Views
Can we do two hypocops?
09/11/2009 05:23:15 AM
- 792 Views
I think there's probably about an equal chance of there being a roleblocker or a doc.
09/11/2009 01:34:02 PM
- 789 Views
What if we have both?
09/11/2009 04:29:34 PM
- 664 Views
Right, let's get this started- Hypocop Thread
09/11/2009 03:26:21 PM
- 722 Views
I investigated Isaac, and found him to be a devourer of children and kicker of puppies. *NM*
09/11/2009 09:30:24 PM
- 367 Views
But is he innocent or guilty? *NM*
09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
- 380 Views
It should be intuitively obvious to even a casual observer . *NM*
09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
- 364 Views
Hypocop Table - Day 2, Complete
09/11/2009 06:26:22 PM
- 842 Views
I investigated Darth katie and found her to be for the shadow *NM*
09/11/2009 10:40:11 PM
- 379 Views
i investigated fox and ravens and foud him innocent *NM*
10/11/2009 09:34:48 AM
- 421 Views
* found
10/11/2009 02:16:49 PM
- 734 Views
Good coffee isn't made of mud.
10/11/2009 02:39:37 PM
- 737 Views
Re: Good coffee isn't made of mud.
10/11/2009 07:45:06 PM
- 725 Views
Mmm I love the smell of coffee.
10/11/2009 10:19:19 PM
- 835 Views
I did what ever you do and Napolean is for the dark side of the force... *NM*
10/11/2009 01:08:10 AM
- 385 Views
Napole<b>o</b>n. I'm saving your life here. *NM*
10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
- 462 Views
Stop!
10/11/2009 10:12:26 AM
- 742 Views
Re: Stop!
10/11/2009 10:21:46 AM
- 734 Views
So you're saying that
10/11/2009 02:05:39 PM
- 967 Views
Forget about it
10/11/2009 05:12:31 PM
- 761 Views
Got new password, all is well
10/11/2009 05:13:37 PM
- 803 Views
So, what next?
11/11/2009 07:06:37 AM
- 663 Views
Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
11/11/2009 06:15:33 PM
- 662 Views
Re: Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
11/11/2009 09:00:53 PM
- 762 Views
Well, that doesn't really help.
11/11/2009 09:31:20 PM
- 832 Views
And with no dead people...
11/11/2009 10:26:29 PM
- 688 Views
I'm definitely not convinced this makes Isaac innocent.
11/11/2009 11:36:06 PM
- 859 Views
Well... this is essentially a Day 1 reboot. I suppose we could just do another random lynch
12/11/2009 03:44:22 AM
- 880 Views
I guess.
12/11/2009 06:04:22 AM
- 792 Views
Hm... ok, let's take a look at posting habits
12/11/2009 06:58:10 AM
- 748 Views
I wasn't asking the roleblocker to claim. I just voiced the possibility. *NM*
13/11/2009 05:30:45 AM
- 450 Views
Questions about the hypocop
12/11/2009 10:17:35 PM
- 1023 Views
I see nothing wrong.
12/11/2009 11:34:10 PM
- 760 Views
It probably should have been more random.
13/11/2009 12:05:11 AM
- 673 Views
Re: It probably should have been more random.
13/11/2009 12:39:52 AM
- 919 Views
To me it seems that from that Darth Katie and Issac are innocent...
13/11/2009 12:14:02 AM
- 817 Views
Ok, I really think we should stop this before we do any more damage then has already been done...
13/11/2009 12:25:39 AM
- 775 Views
I usually have to strangle the Day 1 No-lynch option, which makes me very visible .
13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
- 703 Views
Actually...
13/11/2009 09:38:54 AM
- 801 Views
The only reason I voted for him was cause Is aw his death as a win-win sutuation.
13/11/2009 06:13:03 PM
- 728 Views
It seems to me
13/11/2009 01:49:32 AM
- 747 Views
Well, I did notice that...
13/11/2009 04:37:43 AM
- 896 Views
While that's true...
13/11/2009 05:28:54 AM
- 840 Views
I meant no implication whatsoever. I was asked what I noticed, and I noticed that.
13/11/2009 06:55:18 AM
- 923 Views
We should choose hypocopped people in the future to prevent events like this. *NM*
13/11/2009 06:09:18 AM
- 442 Views
I think that would limit the cop too much.
13/11/2009 09:37:49 PM
- 680 Views
I think it worked well in your gaem. Where we chose two, and hypocopped one of those. *NM*
14/11/2009 08:17:37 AM
- 345 Views
Yeah, but there were two definite suspects then.
14/11/2009 03:17:30 PM
- 675 Views
Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects. *NM*
14/11/2009 08:00:19 PM
- 513 Views
Re: Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects.
14/11/2009 09:00:24 PM
- 822 Views
By the way...
13/11/2009 01:22:15 AM
- 857 Views
Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
13/11/2009 06:11:30 PM
- 780 Views
Re: Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
13/11/2009 06:22:05 PM
- 727 Views
Yeah, I doubt we're going to find out what he was before the day ends.
13/11/2009 07:19:48 PM
- 831 Views
Question
13/11/2009 08:11:43 PM
- 915 Views
I guess the no night-kill is what has people uncertain.
13/11/2009 09:08:09 PM
- 851 Views
I just don't like lynching people randomly.
13/11/2009 09:44:59 PM
- 868 Views
Well, we didn't discuss it because, in the end, it almost didn't matter
13/11/2009 10:27:29 PM
- 705 Views
Alright, let's look at those votes then
14/11/2009 10:56:08 AM
- 867 Views
Re: Alright, let's look at those votes then
14/11/2009 08:02:50 PM
- 825 Views
I'm getting antsy
15/11/2009 02:46:48 AM
- 815 Views
Why Ranagrande?
15/11/2009 03:01:00 AM
- 674 Views
Dunno. Gut feeling. Maybe because he killed me last game!
15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
- 751 Views
I'm getting kind of antsy too.
15/11/2009 03:56:41 PM
- 883 Views
All right
15/11/2009 06:56:33 PM
- 736 Views
It's up now.
15/11/2009 08:22:58 PM
- 792 Views
Well, it does remind me of the MHael Steve incident a number of games back...
16/11/2009 05:57:11 AM
- 710 Views
Yes, I've been thinking of game 3 too
16/11/2009 06:16:13 AM
- 817 Views
Vote Table
15/11/2009 08:18:37 PM
- 830 Views
I think you're right
15/11/2009 09:26:47 PM
- 890 Views
Sure, I'll mount an accusation
15/11/2009 11:16:07 PM
- 839 Views
Ok it semms I have to clarify a little...
15/11/2009 11:23:09 PM
- 986 Views
Am I suspicious just because I haven't posted much, or is there a different reason? *NM*
17/11/2009 03:24:21 AM
- 504 Views
Quick defense
16/11/2009 05:52:58 AM
- 829 Views
Also: I support hypocopping Fanatic Templar or ranagrande
16/11/2009 05:57:24 AM
- 715 Views
I'm inclined to vote for beetnemesis.
16/11/2009 06:34:15 AM
- 832 Views
I actually tend to agree here.
16/11/2009 07:07:48 PM
- 846 Views
Psh. If I was a DF, I would have backed away from ranagrande as soon as people questioned it
17/11/2009 12:41:07 AM
- 800 Views
But you're backing away from Ranagrande now.
17/11/2009 01:16:17 AM
- 836 Views
I am not! Ranagrande is creepy!
17/11/2009 02:31:03 AM
- 838 Views
You totally suggested we lynch Ranagrande.
17/11/2009 04:25:12 AM
- 794 Views
Hm... ok, but that was really more idle discussion that a focused push for lynch
17/11/2009 05:50:44 AM
- 717 Views
Oh! I remember what I wanted to say!
17/11/2009 02:44:30 AM
- 810 Views
But why keep trying to divert attention to a Cult?
17/11/2009 03:35:28 AM
- 817 Views
Honestly? I just thought it sounded cool. Also, it supported the "no night kill" thing
17/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
- 944 Views
Cult vs crew is a cult win
18/11/2009 03:11:36 AM
- 864 Views
Hm? Was someone saying there were no DFs?
18/11/2009 03:19:35 AM
- 681 Views
I think what some of us are looking for here...
18/11/2009 03:28:25 AM
- 708 Views
Ahem. *Raises hand on stack of Terry Pratchett's "The Truth"*
18/11/2009 05:46:09 AM
- 701 Views
That's messed up
18/11/2009 05:50:01 AM
- 661 Views
I just finished rereading it last night
18/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
- 728 Views
Not really, but there was a debate about whether there could be a cult AND DFs...
18/11/2009 04:41:33 AM
- 834 Views
It is an interesting conundrum.
17/11/2009 05:06:04 AM
- 889 Views
P.S. I'm sorry if being indirectly called a lady is offensive to you.
17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
- 762 Views
It's like politics.
17/11/2009 06:31:04 PM
- 852 Views
Honestly, I blame my new job
18/11/2009 05:52:28 AM
- 736 Views
Re: Honestly, I blame my new job
18/11/2009 09:23:34 AM
- 749 Views
No...
18/11/2009 12:47:40 PM
- 733 Views
actually
18/11/2009 01:15:00 PM
- 695 Views
Simply because you don't see any hard evidence is not enough of a reason not to vote.
18/11/2009 05:26:18 PM
- 824 Views
I may be swayed to vote here because as FT or Isaac had said (i forget which),
18/11/2009 06:43:15 PM
- 967 Views
I agree he looks pretty suspicious,
17/11/2009 03:39:18 AM
- 843 Views
That would be a reasonable conclusion...
17/11/2009 04:54:47 AM
- 804 Views
RBIRL 'til Thursday.
15/11/2009 11:10:49 PM
- 639 Views
reason why i voted for hopper yesterday
16/11/2009 03:22:22 AM
- 832 Views
Well, any reason for voting for Hopper was basically a good reason.
16/11/2009 05:32:22 AM
- 861 Views
RBIRL until Wednesday.
16/11/2009 02:09:34 PM
- 761 Views
Didn't pass the test.
18/11/2009 03:09:29 PM
- 660 Views
Failed by one point, I might add. Curses. *NM*
18/11/2009 03:10:39 PM
- 429 Views
Apparently that both sucks and blows at the same time. But sorry man. Good luck on Monday. *NM*
18/11/2009 09:52:36 PM
- 373 Views
Actually people...
18/11/2009 08:53:08 PM
- 798 Views
Re: Actually people...
18/11/2009 09:44:53 PM
- 830 Views
Re: Actually people...
19/11/2009 02:36:59 PM
- 751 Views
Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
18/11/2009 10:55:11 PM
- 762 Views
Re: Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
19/11/2009 02:54:19 PM
- 856 Views
Ok i have to say something or i will be killed
18/11/2009 11:30:38 PM
- 939 Views
Considering I am going to die anyway...........
18/11/2009 11:36:14 PM
- 844 Views
Have you completely gone off your bloody gourd?
19/11/2009 01:58:32 AM
- 719 Views
I suppose I actually have to write an analysis now..... Darned honor...... It'll be short though....
19/11/2009 02:38:22 AM
- 1128 Views
I have a proposition, that might be amenable to everyone
19/11/2009 02:53:04 AM
- 1000 Views
Whenever anyone asks for one more night, one more day...
19/11/2009 03:37:32 AM
- 865 Views
But... that's the OPPOSITE of the intended reaction!
19/11/2009 04:12:02 AM
- 936 Views
This right here is making me vote for you:
19/11/2009 03:16:00 PM
- 871 Views
Fair enough
19/11/2009 05:33:28 PM
- 895 Views
Re: Wreaking Havoc
19/11/2009 08:09:18 PM
- 859 Views
Super-killing machine would be the coolest role ever
19/11/2009 10:53:04 PM
- 780 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
19/11/2009 11:24:25 PM
- 889 Views
Re: DEATH UNICORN!
20/11/2009 01:33:39 AM
- 734 Views
I want to be in that band.
20/11/2009 03:16:29 AM
- 717 Views
!!!
20/11/2009 04:18:07 PM
- 704 Views
YES.
20/11/2009 06:01:21 PM
- 1085 Views
Narwhals, Narwhals, swimming in the ocea, causin a commotion, Coz they are so awesome...
20/11/2009 09:30:09 PM
- 740 Views
I may just be digging myself a deep grave...
19/11/2009 08:37:38 PM
- 798 Views
I dunno ... it's hard for me to say.
19/11/2009 11:10:55 PM
- 775 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
19/11/2009 11:12:33 PM
- 951 Views
Umm ... this does not belong here. Whoopsies! *NM*
19/11/2009 11:23:40 PM
- 392 Views
beetnemesis has been Lynched.
20/11/2009 04:23:15 AM
- 706 Views
Lol Isaac didn't even vote!
20/11/2009 04:42:58 AM
- 894 Views
Blackout
20/11/2009 11:21:48 PM
- 1089 Views
I'm off to explore the universe on my ethereal Death Unicorn- Farewell!
21/11/2009 12:59:20 AM
- 1076 Views