And all this math doesn't factor in the SK, of course. So many different variables and unknowns that this doesn't do the situation justice, in my eyes.
Let's try it with five Darkfriends and a serial killer. Chances to get a Darkfriend.
Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 9-5-1 (0) / 9-5-1 (0)
Day 2: 7-5-1 (1) / 8-5-1 (0)
Day 3: 5-5-1 (2, ly-lo) / 6-5-1 (1)
Day 4: 3-5-1 (3, lost) / 4-5-1 (2, lost)
Same results.
Now let's add that the serial killer also kills a Lightsider each night.
Day 1 lynch / Day 1 no-lynch
Day 1: 9-5-1 (0) / 9-5-1 (0)
Day 2: 6-5-1 (1) / 7-5-1 (0)
Day 3: 3-5-1 (2, lost) / 4-5-1 (1, lost)
Same results.
The first rule of being a ninja is "do no harm". Unless you intend to do harm, then do lots of harm.
~Master Splinter
Victorious in Bergioyn's legendary 'Reverse Mafia'. *MySmiley*
~Master Splinter
Victorious in Bergioyn's legendary 'Reverse Mafia'. *MySmiley*
RAFO Mafia 2: Day 1 - The Greatest Game Ever Played
18/09/2009 06:55:33 AM
- 4080 Views
Is it really the greatest game ever played?
18/09/2009 12:28:57 PM
- 1543 Views
Cosmic Chess between the Dark One and the Creator?
18/09/2009 05:53:04 PM
- 1259 Views
Vote Table ...
19/09/2009 04:25:51 AM
- 1554 Views
Re: Vote Table ...
19/09/2009 05:55:27 AM
- 1463 Views
Let's see if we can get this moving
19/09/2009 08:34:50 PM
- 1477 Views
Um...
19/09/2009 08:56:24 PM
- 1497 Views
Maybe
19/09/2009 09:09:07 PM
- 1457 Views
well im somebody
19/09/2009 10:25:24 PM
- 1490 Views
Same here.
20/09/2009 02:20:39 AM
- 1360 Views
I'm not sure
20/09/2009 01:55:12 AM
- 1530 Views
Problem is...
20/09/2009 02:08:01 AM
- 1377 Views
Character Info Table 1 - Last Update 1:04 AM EST, 20 September
20/09/2009 03:42:51 AM
- 1403 Views
I think everyone is from a different series.
20/09/2009 03:44:21 AM
- 1380 Views
Did she? Must have missed that
20/09/2009 04:06:32 AM
- 1542 Views
I am a main character, plus SHOCKING REVELATION INSIDE!
20/09/2009 05:22:28 AM
- 1336 Views
well we could all name ourselves
20/09/2009 06:29:58 AM
- 1304 Views
Doesn't seem like it would be that effective.
20/09/2009 08:01:06 PM
- 1381 Views
Now what I think we should do is...
20/09/2009 08:28:36 PM
- 1366 Views
Let's narrow that down a bit
20/09/2009 09:45:00 PM
- 1409 Views
I like the plan
21/09/2009 12:15:57 AM
- 1356 Views
Re: I like the plan
21/09/2009 12:37:02 AM
- 1398 Views
I don't mind being the first
21/09/2009 12:44:45 AM
- 1321 Views
All right, I'll join in there
21/09/2009 12:55:00 AM
- 1471 Views
Player Background Settings (Table) - Update 0117 23.9
21/09/2009 01:52:39 AM
- 1487 Views
Re: Player Background Settings (Table) - Last Update 9:56 pm EST, 20 Sept
21/09/2009 04:38:46 AM
- 1284 Views
I'm from Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy, Star Wars or Lord of The Rings *NM*
21/09/2009 07:35:21 AM
- 735 Views
I'm confident that naming our series won't make a difference at all
21/09/2009 01:41:58 PM
- 1447 Views
That format for claiming won't really work for me.
21/09/2009 06:05:29 PM
- 1274 Views
Why wouldn't it?
21/09/2009 10:08:18 PM
- 1266 Views
I think that's probably good...
21/09/2009 11:01:43 PM
- 1464 Views
Re: I think that's probably good...
21/09/2009 11:10:21 PM
- 1422 Views
No, Shakespeare wrote/created me.
21/09/2009 11:14:13 PM
- 1369 Views
So you're not Simba from The Lion King?
22/09/2009 05:38:22 AM
- 1374 Views
That's a good movie *NM*
23/09/2009 01:59:50 AM
- 807 Views
So let's start up some action...
21/09/2009 04:45:32 AM
- 1318 Views
It's time to do something!
22/09/2009 12:44:52 PM
- 1344 Views
Okay...
22/09/2009 08:18:00 PM
- 1301 Views
Isaac didn't influence me at all
22/09/2009 08:45:56 PM
- 1368 Views
Our current summary (Table) - Update 0114 EST 22.9
23/09/2009 01:56:08 AM
- 1348 Views
I forgot to name; Wheel of Time, Star Wars, or Lord of the Rings *NM*
23/09/2009 02:08:27 AM
- 799 Views
About that...
23/09/2009 04:18:38 AM
- 1337 Views
Re: About that...
23/09/2009 05:02:59 AM
- 1388 Views
Is Moloch dead?
23/09/2009 03:54:55 AM
- 1365 Views
Moloch is now DEAD.
23/09/2009 05:08:13 AM
- 1428 Views
Arghhhhh 9 more days *NM*
23/09/2009 05:25:03 AM
- 722 Views
Moloch was a lightside/townie Jedi from Star Wars?
23/09/2009 05:40:55 AM
- 1442 Views
Re: Moloch was a lightside/townie Jedi from Star Wars?
23/09/2009 11:31:38 PM
- 1394 Views
Have we seen anyone die in TAR?
24/09/2009 04:36:23 AM
- 1364 Views
How do you know for a fact he was a townie jedi? Or was that a joke. I missed the memo. *NM*
24/09/2009 04:58:55 AM
- 800 Views
Re: How do you know for a fact he was a townie jedi? Or was that a joke. I missed the memo.
25/09/2009 12:52:04 AM
- 1393 Views
Vote: Gher
23/09/2009 06:12:38 AM
- 1271 Views
I really doubt he's a DF
23/09/2009 12:38:29 PM
- 1484 Views
You haven't sparred with him as much
23/09/2009 12:48:21 PM
- 1309 Views
He probably does have some useful information, due to his uniquity.
23/09/2009 03:30:49 PM
- 1397 Views
Re: You haven't sparred with him as much
23/09/2009 04:34:24 PM
- 1377 Views
Re: You haven't sparred with him as much
23/09/2009 07:53:00 PM
- 1311 Views
I agree with Fox and Ravens
23/09/2009 01:38:49 PM
- 1415 Views
Trivial Laws of Shakespeare?
23/09/2009 02:33:54 PM
- 1428 Views
Alright.
23/09/2009 06:49:34 PM
- 1413 Views
White Light or Darkness [Table]: That's everyone, unless Marshall wants to clarify
23/09/2009 06:54:40 PM
- 1371 Views
Yeah, white light.
24/09/2009 01:14:59 AM
- 1343 Views
Still fairly sure, I did expect a majority of White Light answers. *NM*
24/09/2009 01:44:33 AM
- 770 Views
Re: White Light or Darkness [Table]: (Updated at 1:50:56 24/09 RAFO time) 7 have answered, 7 haven't
24/09/2009 02:55:25 AM
- 1389 Views
Vote: Blaine
24/09/2009 04:31:27 AM
- 1317 Views
Re: Vote: Blaine
24/09/2009 04:53:46 AM
- 1297 Views
Are you completely sure?
24/09/2009 11:18:36 PM
- 1387 Views
White + Very Bright *NM*
24/09/2009 04:49:14 AM
- 758 Views
Bright White Light *NM*
24/09/2009 11:01:31 AM
- 804 Views
Whoops! Was Editing fobridden? I just changed it from Whte Light to Bright White Light after ...
24/09/2009 11:05:37 AM
- 1245 Views
Why don't you tell us what you got?
25/09/2009 01:58:54 AM
- 1294 Views
^Seconded.
25/09/2009 02:28:38 AM
- 1298 Views
Re: ^Seconded.
25/09/2009 03:02:47 AM
- 1319 Views
Damn't I took too long typing; Gher already said what his was.
*NM*
25/09/2009 03:05:03 AM
- 743 Views

Whaat??? I didn't check for 2 days and there is 91 new replies!? *NM*
24/09/2009 10:37:46 AM
- 793 Views
I will be gone until monday, I couldn't remember the time of inactivity required for modkill, so...
24/09/2009 09:47:07 PM
- 1499 Views
Hmm... I swear I replied to this.
25/09/2009 01:37:05 AM
- 1243 Views
Over 200 posts and nothing has happened or been decided besides one mod-kill. Come on guys.
25/09/2009 01:55:45 AM
- 1368 Views
Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch.
25/09/2009 03:50:26 AM
- 1304 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch.
25/09/2009 04:44:37 AM
- 1378 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch.
26/09/2009 09:31:02 PM
- 1344 Views
All right, White Light and Darkness.
25/09/2009 03:00:51 AM
- 1350 Views
Thanks for the reveal.
25/09/2009 03:13:49 AM
- 1322 Views
Well, at the rate this is going...
26/09/2009 10:38:49 PM
- 1342 Views
...I guess this makes sense for you
26/09/2009 11:18:02 PM
- 1502 Views
I think I missed something
27/09/2009 01:29:38 AM
- 1357 Views
He didn't exactly lie...
27/09/2009 02:13:02 AM
- 1359 Views
I will say....
27/09/2009 05:23:37 AM
- 1445 Views
Re: I will say....
27/09/2009 05:58:10 AM
- 1485 Views
Well, yeah.
27/09/2009 05:31:11 AM
- 1296 Views
Re: Well, yeah.
27/09/2009 06:10:53 AM
- 1383 Views
Re: Well, yeah.
27/09/2009 06:50:39 AM
- 1381 Views
My two cents- Gher is making me nervous. He's doing divide-and-conquer
27/09/2009 06:26:33 PM
- 1400 Views
So! <b>Vote: Gher</b> *NM*
27/09/2009 06:27:01 PM
- 795 Views
Sigh...
27/09/2009 06:31:04 PM
- 1350 Views
Yeah, it doesn't work in the title, but game rules allow you to just put Vote: PLayer X in the title *NM*
27/09/2009 08:49:39 PM
- 764 Views
You're from Twilight?!?
27/09/2009 06:32:56 AM
- 1369 Views
Now I'm really confused.
27/09/2009 07:39:35 AM
- 1323 Views
What just happened there? *NM*
27/09/2009 09:07:36 AM
- 764 Views
WOO
27/09/2009 02:03:10 AM
- 1210 Views
Re: WOO
27/09/2009 02:16:42 AM
- 1349 Views
are you asking me personally?
27/09/2009 04:13:16 AM
- 1393 Views
not necessarily, it was meant for anyone to repsond to if they wanted. *NM*
27/09/2009 05:34:40 AM
- 859 Views
Vote Table (Update 6:41 RAFO time)
27/09/2009 04:39:20 PM
- 1546 Views
Well, I don't see what Gher did as a problem...
27/09/2009 05:00:32 PM
- 1376 Views
See my post above for why I think Hobo is innocent, and Gher likely a DF
27/09/2009 06:36:57 PM
- 1425 Views
I don't know about this
27/09/2009 06:55:21 PM
- 1311 Views
What does "bussed?" mean
27/09/2009 07:03:20 PM
- 1316 Views
since gher has lied
27/09/2009 06:21:28 PM
- 1332 Views
I'll go with it.
27/09/2009 06:24:08 PM
- 1330 Views
I didn't vote
27/09/2009 06:56:48 PM
- 1359 Views
Looks like I started something...
27/09/2009 11:42:46 PM
- 1354 Views
I'm back--let me read over stuff. Will be prepared by tomorrow. *NM*
28/09/2009 01:23:58 AM
- 774 Views
How bout a deal?
28/09/2009 05:09:28 AM
- 1527 Views
Look, I'm all for lynching Hobo...
28/09/2009 01:48:07 PM
- 1172 Views
I really don't like this "voting just for the sake of a lynch" business.
28/09/2009 03:48:51 PM
- 1371 Views
Why is Gher less suspicious?
28/09/2009 05:21:51 PM
- 1462 Views
I think his point was that lynching someone is better than lynching no one.
28/09/2009 07:49:47 PM
- 1385 Views
I don't think so
28/09/2009 03:07:42 PM
- 1372 Views
Ooh, a third party does seem kind of likely, doesn't it?
28/09/2009 03:30:10 PM
- 1279 Views
It's a high probability
28/09/2009 03:45:40 PM
- 1187 Views
So, you're saying that if Gher was innocent, he would have been lynched by now?
28/09/2009 05:06:05 PM
- 1404 Views
I think we shouldn't lynch anyone first day.
28/09/2009 04:55:43 PM
- 1352 Views
I demand blood! Plus, with so many people, we're likely to hit at least ONE faction,
28/09/2009 05:15:34 PM
- 1180 Views
Day 1 no-lynch is an absolutely and objectively detrimental technique for the Light.
28/09/2009 07:24:01 PM
- 1388 Views
There are many other factors than pure math involved.
28/09/2009 09:11:34 PM
- 1210 Views
Thanks for making me doubt again.
28/09/2009 09:26:17 PM
- 1329 Views

Vote Gher! We shall find the truth in his entrails! *NM*
28/09/2009 09:37:59 PM
- 832 Views
Blast! I was sure swallowing the evidence would ensure it remains uncompromised.
*NM*
28/09/2009 09:40:09 PM
- 777 Views

It doesn't?
28/09/2009 09:31:17 PM
- 1402 Views
All right
28/09/2009 10:03:40 PM
- 1413 Views
So...
28/09/2009 10:47:44 PM
- 1232 Views
Hobo has been Lynched.
29/09/2009 03:31:32 AM
- 1432 Views