Active Users:1136 Time:23/11/2024 03:07:48 AM
So, what now? Isaac Send a noteboard - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM
First, we have to consider whether Rana or I are telling the truth, coding yourself as cop on Day 1 when you're not is a big risk, and not on my estimate one I'd have taken as a scummer, but it is one I would have considered seriously for this game format if I was scum. I'm assuming neither Yuna or ? are cops or they'd have said as much, we'll need to wait to see if any of the other 4 claim cop, Stephen, Fox, beet, or Hieshyn... as that would change the analysis a lot on possible weirdness. We could simply have a psycho cop and a regular cop or both of us might be nuts in the same or different fashion, and I can't see testing ?/Kron or Beet to destruction to find out which, though the former would be my choice since Rana has a case, if one I consider thin, on ?/Kron whereas my reasons for selecting beet were strictly threat analysis. We need everyone to confirm they aren't a cop first though.

Assuming Rana and I are both telling the truth, then I'd say the odds of us having 3 scum are low, as one or more flawed investigators is a heck of an anti-town bent to throw on top of 3 scum in a 10 player game. Such being the case, both of us basically had a 1 in 4 chance of finding a scummer in our investigations, having 8 people each to pick from, and a 1 in 16 if we're both sane of having gotten two different people who were both guilty, which is worsened since my target as previously mentioned seems unaligned to rana's target. It's actually pretty good odds we're both nuts, since the odds of the 'true cop' getting a scummer result weren't great. We also don't know what kinda nuts either or both of us might be, we could have the 'get the opposite result' insane cop, or the 'get guilty all the time' cop, or one of the variations often seen in themed games like Whitecloak Inquisitor who gets guilty results off any darkfriend or channeler/warder. I'd not be surprised if the poem shed some light on this too, and the flavor of it already fed my suspiscion of nuts. Either way, it's a good thing we know now... we can also assume ?'s old character wasn't a cop, as he was town and said he had no active ability, we don't and won't know about DK though.

Personally I think we're both telling the truth, that seems most probable, and I doubted my result more because I've been a psycho-cop before and because unlike Rana I didn't have prior suspicions involved in my choice, to him, he suspected his target and got the answer he expected, to me, it was an improbable result to be distrusted and I suppose one could argue that I went looking for evidence to support my own expectations :P
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Game 24, Day 2 - Game has ended - 06/11/2011 06:04:27 PM 1176 Views
I'm actually a bit surprised by the choice of ? - 06/11/2011 07:34:57 PM 1085 Views
Yes, it was an oversight. He was a townie. *NM* - 06/11/2011 08:01:11 PM 439 Views
Voting record: - 07/11/2011 05:25:40 PM 953 Views
Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 02:52:26 PM 754 Views
Re: Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 03:36:31 PM 911 Views
I think a second look at our poetry is in order too, now we have more of it - 07/11/2011 12:43:21 AM 895 Views
... and the two things - 07/11/2011 01:29:31 AM 908 Views
I object to this plan. - 07/11/2011 02:07:35 AM 809 Views
UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 02:59:27 PM 687 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 06:23:42 PM 825 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 08:17:53 PM 726 Views
Wait, would everyone be picking their own two letters? Ah, ok, it's not as dangerous as I thought - 07/11/2011 08:20:32 PM 724 Views
Yes *NM* - 07/11/2011 08:41:04 PM 427 Views
and follow that to the logical conclusion... - 07/11/2011 08:40:43 PM 978 Views
no *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:19:20 PM 459 Views
FT already banned it *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:20:45 PM 418 Views
I know, I'm just voicing my opinion *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:27:34 PM 350 Views
Besides the ban, I can't see why you'd object - 07/11/2011 06:44:14 PM 757 Views
errrm, i don't think no is a strong enough word for this *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:58:09 PM 557 Views
? will be replacing Kronin... - 07/11/2011 01:56:08 AM 781 Views
Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:33:43 PM 950 Views
Re: Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:42:15 PM 1075 Views
I'll echo that vote. - 07/11/2011 06:15:21 PM 942 Views
He could have just been being polite - 07/11/2011 06:34:30 PM 1116 Views
Very good point, I think a roleclaim from ?, using Kronin's coded roleclaim from yesterday - 07/11/2011 08:22:45 PM 890 Views
? can't decode Kronin's RC, and he wouldn't be allowed to give his own - 07/11/2011 08:45:50 PM 836 Views
yeah I could go ahead and roleclaim if you want... - 07/11/2011 08:56:41 PM 803 Views
No, I don't want you to claim - 07/11/2011 08:57:47 PM 710 Views
Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:06 PM 738 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:23 PM 789 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:09:04 PM 768 Views
I oh got confused. - 08/11/2011 02:41:46 AM 833 Views
That is not the case against Kronin. - 07/11/2011 09:48:52 PM 655 Views
I don't think substitution is enough - 07/11/2011 10:25:27 PM 895 Views
Anybody else get a chuckle out of this? *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:36:28 PM 397 Views
Ignore the *NM* *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:43:16 PM 407 Views
doubly so... - 07/11/2011 06:49:05 PM 916 Views
out of what? *NM* - 07/11/2011 07:51:06 PM 393 Views
Shrug, I think we should still get a roleclaim from ?/Kronin - 08/11/2011 01:51:24 PM 868 Views
I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 08:46:07 PM 805 Views
Re: I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 09:39:45 PM 863 Views
Heh. Die? Die! His username makes that weird. *NM* - 08/11/2011 10:55:22 PM 449 Views
eh - 08/11/2011 10:40:47 PM 835 Views
What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 02:32:14 PM 843 Views
Re: What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 08:38:19 PM 875 Views
Semi-RBIRL - 09/11/2011 05:26:11 AM 767 Views
Vote: Beetnemesis - 09/11/2011 10:24:06 PM 940 Views
RC decode - 09/11/2011 10:35:52 PM 914 Views
Bah, now I have to claim as well - 09/11/2011 10:46:37 PM 793 Views
All right, let's proceed sanely then - 09/11/2011 10:51:12 PM 792 Views
OK, Unvote - 09/11/2011 11:23:35 PM 692 Views
decoding: - 09/11/2011 11:22:31 PM 832 Views
Would you mind walking through that last step? - 09/11/2011 11:44:30 PM 799 Views
Not at all. - 10/11/2011 12:09:09 AM 793 Views
Okay I confirm your decode then - 10/11/2011 12:16:22 AM 767 Views
... *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:59:58 PM 495 Views
Woah. Problems. - 09/11/2011 11:32:40 PM 730 Views
there is something really fishy going on... *NM* - 09/11/2011 11:34:09 PM 408 Views
what? - 09/11/2011 11:32:45 PM 621 Views
Re: what? - 09/11/2011 11:34:16 PM 668 Views
Actually, there's a strong chance neither is lying - 09/11/2011 11:53:35 PM 972 Views
So, what now? - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM 1064 Views
Is or Is Not a Cop (Table) - 10/11/2011 12:52:52 AM 824 Views
I am not a cop. *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:04:38 AM 328 Views
I'm the daycop. Vote: Ranagrande. - 10/11/2011 01:41:59 AM 778 Views
EBWOP: here's the code. - 10/11/2011 01:43:00 AM 649 Views
Decode confirmed - 10/11/2011 02:08:26 AM 656 Views
Yeah, forgot to say I used Vignere. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:18:31 AM 403 Views
EBWOP again - 10/11/2011 01:44:04 AM 623 Views
Stand by for the moment - 10/11/2011 01:49:38 AM 818 Views
Jesus...I REALLY need to read everything before I start posting. - 10/11/2011 01:54:11 AM 802 Views
Add to that the next follow up, that ? might previously have been a Day Cop too - 10/11/2011 02:04:29 AM 836 Views
It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:18:02 AM 767 Views
Re: It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:30:00 AM 1105 Views
I am a daycop. I found Isaac innocent. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:02:05 PM 441 Views
We still need you role decode *NM* - 10/11/2011 06:19:53 PM 371 Views
(I did, in my other message) - 10/11/2011 07:18:43 PM 618 Views
Okay, got ya, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:02:55 PM 385 Views
i am a cop - 10/11/2011 07:00:14 PM 635 Views
and my decode - 10/11/2011 07:14:38 PM 808 Views
Yep, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:06:16 PM 455 Views
Also, which ? did you check? - 10/11/2011 08:08:05 PM 721 Views
original ? - 10/11/2011 08:10:30 PM 824 Views
Thanks *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:11:13 PM 365 Views
Not a cop *NM* - 10/11/2011 11:48:27 PM 621 Views
To the decode-mobile! *plays 60s Batman music* - 11/11/2011 02:32:06 PM 707 Views
Let's take another look at that poem - 10/11/2011 01:44:36 AM 895 Views
Hahaha I have to read all of these posts, but FT, you're insane. - 10/11/2011 01:58:01 PM 857 Views
FT IS insane. Turns out I was missing something after all. *NM* - 10/11/2011 09:59:56 PM 353 Views
OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 02:23:10 PM 868 Views
Re: OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 05:52:25 PM 936 Views
I think it's time to consider mass RC - 10/11/2011 08:15:36 PM 717 Views
Sure... - 10/11/2011 09:19:49 PM 994 Views
There's a lot of options still, and decode confirmed by the way - 10/11/2011 09:48:05 PM 964 Views
I have been nominated! - 10/11/2011 10:30:37 PM 840 Views
Thanks - 10/11/2011 10:36:36 PM 894 Views
My pleasure *NM* - 10/11/2011 10:44:23 PM 334 Views
*NM* - 10/11/2011 11:21:59 PM 374 Views
Not saying that that is right of course... - 10/11/2011 11:23:23 PM 801 Views
Hmm... - 10/11/2011 11:20:50 PM 684 Views
I totally agree. - 10/11/2011 09:54:25 PM 703 Views
The wasy I see it, anybody not claiming cop is going to get lynched - 10/11/2011 11:57:24 PM 883 Views
Lying and claiming cop when you can't decode your RC will get you lynched faster. *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:33:05 AM 374 Views
Which I didn't do *NM* - 11/11/2011 02:05:30 AM 416 Views
I know, I know. - 11/11/2011 03:57:51 AM 700 Views
Fox, did you get a response on your investigation? *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:20:12 AM 467 Views
I hadn't performed one yet. - 11/11/2011 12:34:48 AM 794 Views
Isaac - 11/11/2011 02:00:18 AM 902 Views
Or me - 11/11/2011 02:07:10 AM 817 Views
I'd recommend ? - 11/11/2011 02:15:24 AM 677 Views
Bring it. - 11/11/2011 03:10:14 AM 717 Views
Someone who has already been copped - 11/11/2011 03:57:08 AM 662 Views
I'll investigate ? because yuna's the other daycop - 11/11/2011 04:00:49 AM 673 Views
Wait a minute....I meant that I would be testing it against rana. Not yuna - 11/11/2011 01:39:16 PM 937 Views
no i'm not, im a normal cop *NM* - 11/11/2011 09:18:23 PM 446 Views
I had everything messed up anyway *NM* - 12/11/2011 10:45:54 PM 388 Views
Vote: Beetnemisis/RBIRL - 11/11/2011 02:04:35 AM 745 Views
Hey people sorry for the unexpected RBIRL - 11/11/2011 11:47:11 AM 907 Views
RBIRL here too. - 11/11/2011 01:34:45 PM 653 Views
I'm thinking either Hieshyn or ? - 11/11/2011 04:32:16 PM 800 Views
It kinda seems like Hieshyn and ? are our logical lynch targets, plus Cop (Table) - 11/11/2011 10:09:52 PM 1015 Views
Fox investigated ? and found him innocent *NM* - 11/11/2011 10:41:39 PM 372 Views
Vote: ? - 11/11/2011 10:46:43 PM 677 Views
Yeah, that seems logical next step, Vote: ? - 13/11/2011 02:59:25 AM 991 Views
mrr, vote ? then *NM* - 13/11/2011 10:27:49 AM 549 Views
Think my vote was on ? already. - 13/11/2011 04:26:49 PM 788 Views
Vote: ? *NM* - 14/11/2011 02:27:20 AM 489 Views
That should be lynch with yours, so... - 14/11/2011 03:07:36 AM 727 Views
? Has been lynched - 14/11/2011 03:50:31 AM 878 Views
Game ends. - 14/11/2011 10:25:04 PM 758 Views
Role list: - 14/11/2011 10:26:32 PM 802 Views
Jeeez. - 14/11/2011 11:43:47 PM 765 Views
Kronin originally RC as a Tracker so we might have done better if we had been able to continue *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:06:07 AM 386 Views
Not even cause tracker is still the odd man out. - 15/11/2011 12:20:17 AM 758 Views
That might have worked but everyone would have had targets - 15/11/2011 02:20:43 AM 850 Views
Maybe, but I still would have known he was guilty. *NM* - 15/11/2011 02:55:43 AM 351 Views
You were paranoid, amusingly enough. - 15/11/2011 02:59:43 AM 773 Views
Ya there was no hope for us *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:04:06 AM 393 Views
YAY! - 14/11/2011 10:48:54 PM 746 Views
Wow. *NM* - 15/11/2011 01:09:28 AM 455 Views
Also I would like to be added to the list of future Moderator - 15/11/2011 12:07:51 AM 634 Views
You'd have first dibs via our order of precedence system - 15/11/2011 02:05:04 AM 887 Views
Also whoever Mods should probably post a recruitment thread on some other NBs - 15/11/2011 02:50:02 AM 807 Views
I expect my next game to draw in some new players. - 15/11/2011 02:58:59 AM 763 Views
More is better, okay that would be Hieshyn or Beet then, unless ? wants to toss in - 15/11/2011 03:26:25 AM 747 Views
Nope I'm not ready to mod yet... - 15/11/2011 08:29:24 PM 688 Views
hey - 15/11/2011 09:46:28 PM 616 Views
It's Hieshyn's if he wants it, otherwise I can go next. - 15/11/2011 12:40:13 PM 811 Views
I'm not ready to go next - 15/11/2011 02:43:07 PM 876 Views
Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 03:15:21 PM 645 Views
Re: Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 04:09:07 PM 838 Views
Deathless Mafia? Is that a thing? SQUEE, Mistborn! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:15:49 PM 354 Views
If it wasn't a thing before, it is now! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:53:14 PM 346 Views
ooooh - 15/11/2011 11:27:26 PM 684 Views
You've got a week to read the last 2....GO, GO, GO!! *NM* - 15/11/2011 11:43:21 PM 373 Views
hah! i could read both in two days - 16/11/2011 07:56:58 PM 714 Views
Just for you, the game shall be spoiler free! *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:12:24 AM 343 Views
Speaking of which, any timeline yet? - 19/11/2011 07:25:11 PM 708 Views
Sounds fantastic - 16/11/2011 12:10:06 AM 846 Views
That could also be fantastic. *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:13:29 AM 389 Views
I AM ALL SORTS OF PUMPED. *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:38 PM 414 Views
Though may or may not actually be playing... *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:58 PM 355 Views
Before the next game starts, we probably need to discuss RC coding - 15/11/2011 02:15:27 AM 984 Views
Yeah, I really didn't like that idea. - 15/11/2011 02:58:21 AM 1068 Views
An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:08:17 AM 880 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:36:38 AM 778 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:43:39 AM 1121 Views
I really didn't like it either. - 16/11/2011 06:20:33 PM 767 Views
I liked my plan: Random voting ftw! *NM* - 16/11/2011 06:29:07 PM 391 Views

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