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Unvote ranagrande Send a noteboard - 01/07/2011 08:04:05 AM
I am not a Vigilante. You could say I am vigilant though, as I am a Watcher. I had been acting on the assumption that Fanatic-Templar was our vig. His last post makes that highly unlikely, so I now know we do have a serial killer instead.

I also now think that our serial killer is beetnemesis. Looking back, there are lots of little things pointing to his guilt, going all the way back to the gender discrepancy on Day 1. As I pointed out, Darth_Katie and Yunalesca claimed female characters and everyone else claimed male, except beetnemesis.

I was willing to chalk that up to coincidence at the time because really, why would someone lie about their character's gender? To facilitate a false claim of Beloved Princess, obviously. I had said before that that was a perfect fake roleclaim for scum, and it's even better for a serial killer. The one-shot bulletproof aspect discourages nightkills, and the threat of losing a day is excellent lynch protection.

I now suspect that beetnemesis lied from the very beginning of Day 1, in the response to his own question about gender, in order to set up his ideal fake claim. In a way, the fact that it fits so well makes it even more suspicious. In a game with Doctor Medea, Oedipus the cop, and above all a bulletproof Socrates, Kronin had no reason to deviate from the otherwise established plan of matching character and player genders. beet could just as easily have been Beloved Princess Homer or something.

My main reason for not suspecting beetnemesis before was that he could not be a member of the mafia due to his interactions with Stephen. Obviously, for a serial killer, that wouldn't matter. They would still have every reason to want each other dead.

There is another problem though. I expect that there is still another mafia member as well. It could be Hobo; a scum doublevoter seems a bit unlikely to me but not impossible, and Pericles as a character is the most likely of us to be going against the gods.

The existence of a serial killer breaks down my theory supporting Hobo's innocence. As he wouldn't be the only threat, losing the last of the mafia wouldn't be completely game-breaking. It would be like a repeat of the ending of the Pirates vs Ninjas game.

So if Hobo gets modkilled and we lynch beetnemesis, we might could win this today. Or if there really were only two mafia, then we can lynch beet for the win.

The problem comes into play if there is a third mafia member and Hobo isn't it. That would mean it's Gher, and that would mean that we lose if Hobo gets modkilled.

If Hobo gets modkilled and dies a townie, then we're down to beet, FT, Gher, and myself. If we lynch beet today, then Gher can kill me or FT tonight and the mafia will win. If we lynched Gher instead today, then beetnemesis could kill me or FT tonight and we'd have the first ever SK victory.

Hopefully it is Hobo and I'm just borrowing trouble. In any event, I now suggest we lynch our serial killer, beetnemesis.

I must commend you on your strategy, beet. That was very well-played. You had me completely fooled, but now the game is up.

Vote: beetnemesis
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Mafia 22: Further In - 24/06/2011 03:18:35 AM 1200 Views
Quick question, what are we doing with Hobo? - 24/06/2011 05:21:41 AM 634 Views
Hi - 24/06/2011 03:44:41 PM 632 Views
Working on it. - 26/06/2011 07:23:30 AM 595 Views
As for the rest of it... (semi-RBIRL) - 24/06/2011 05:27:54 AM 566 Views
Right, so I guess there's only one scum left. Hopefully. - 26/06/2011 10:18:02 PM 672 Views
Hmm. - 27/06/2011 03:41:12 AM 714 Views
ranagrande, Gher? Thoughts? *NM* - 28/06/2011 01:00:06 PM 295 Views
I tried several times to post this before. - 28/06/2011 03:43:07 PM 641 Views
I've had a few issues with the site as well - 28/06/2011 04:15:41 PM 566 Views
The site has been down for me too. And I mostly agree with you. - 28/06/2011 06:31:14 PM 739 Views
F-T and Rangrande, care to claim? - 28/06/2011 06:40:10 PM 653 Views
Yeah, I think roleclaims from both of you would be very useful *NM* - 29/06/2011 12:28:20 AM 308 Views
I doubt a roleclaim on my part is of any use at this junction. - 29/06/2011 01:06:01 AM 675 Views
So... you'll roleclaim after ranagrande does? - 29/06/2011 02:04:04 AM 571 Views
Eh, sure. Why not. - 29/06/2011 07:37:27 AM 579 Views
Shrug. For completeness' sake. - 29/06/2011 11:24:51 AM 580 Views
I'm fine with ranagrande going first. - 29/06/2011 06:19:18 PM 741 Views
Wow, I completely missed that. - 30/06/2011 05:27:16 AM 568 Views
The Hobo Conundrum - 28/06/2011 11:49:15 PM 573 Views
I'm on a bus for 4 hours and I demand BLOOD! - 01/07/2011 02:04:43 AM 711 Views
Unvote - 01/07/2011 08:04:05 AM 770 Views
Interesting. And horrifying. - 01/07/2011 09:18:55 AM 763 Views
Unvote (again) - 01/07/2011 10:20:57 AM 738 Views
Hm. That's kinda brilliant. - 01/07/2011 03:33:52 PM 647 Views
Oh, right. I'm vanilla. *NM* - 01/07/2011 06:18:45 PM 301 Views
Would you mind unvoting until ranagrande accounts for himself? - 01/07/2011 08:49:42 PM 579 Views
If we have only one, how did Isaac die? *NM* - 02/07/2011 05:36:20 AM 317 Views
Hm. Maybe we've been looking at the Night one DK thing wrong? - 02/07/2011 05:10:15 PM 716 Views
You still haven't accounted for anything. - 02/07/2011 06:40:16 PM 701 Views
Psh. Am I the only one who thinks its patently obvious he's the scum? - 03/07/2011 05:50:15 AM 598 Views
Still not answering any of the relevant questions. *NM* - 03/07/2011 09:01:31 AM 327 Views
So, a Watcher? Who did you watch? - 01/07/2011 03:02:58 PM 571 Views
Watchery Watchings - 02/07/2011 06:05:27 AM 571 Views
F-T, did you get any indication that D_K and/or Ranagrande targeted you last night? - 04/07/2011 04:27:56 PM 665 Views
No. - 04/07/2011 06:39:16 PM 631 Views
That's odd. - 05/07/2011 03:17:17 AM 626 Views
Our possibilities are obvious. - 05/07/2011 03:23:25 AM 582 Views
Besides, unless I am given some actual reason to suspect otherwise, - 05/07/2011 03:29:56 AM 806 Views
Hm. So, to be clear - 05/07/2011 01:53:54 PM 654 Views
Right. - 05/07/2011 08:28:28 PM 669 Views
I'm starting to think it really was Hobo. - 05/07/2011 09:02:25 PM 884 Views
It's certainly possible. - 05/07/2011 10:19:39 PM 620 Views
Hm. I guess I just can't shake the feeling I'm being played, somehow. - 05/07/2011 09:55:17 PM 659 Views
Can't someone just confess? - 06/07/2011 04:20:50 AM 785 Views
To be honest, here's the reason I'm delaying: - 06/07/2011 04:24:20 AM 666 Views
I don't know, why aren't YOU voting No-Lynch? *NM* - 06/07/2011 04:24:47 AM 303 Views
Unvote: Ranagrande - 01/07/2011 06:46:14 PM 686 Views
RBIRL. Impeccable timing, I know. - 01/07/2011 09:44:10 PM 630 Views
I am averse to removing you from the VNTL - 02/07/2011 03:15:45 AM 595 Views
RBIRL is supposed to be for more than three days, by my memory. - 02/07/2011 05:37:31 AM 536 Views
I'm back. - 03/07/2011 02:37:23 AM 612 Views
Is Hobo dead? - 03/07/2011 02:48:50 AM 622 Views
Whoa... - 06/07/2011 06:02:53 AM 634 Views
Us zombies are getting restless - 06/07/2011 01:51:51 PM 558 Views
braaaaaaaaaaaaaaains *NM* - 06/07/2011 09:39:06 PM 280 Views
Currently on a bus again. Rana, why did you watch who you did? - 07/07/2011 02:14:05 AM 650 Views
What thoughts do I need to explain? *NM* - 07/07/2011 04:59:24 AM 370 Views
Just in general. What do you think we should do? *NM* - 07/07/2011 08:43:28 PM 295 Views
Do all the Idrians have Scottish accents? - 07/07/2011 01:15:01 PM 548 Views
Yup. I guess its a "Highlands" thing? - 07/07/2011 08:42:05 PM 562 Views
Ha! Are the Hallendrens British? *NM* - 08/07/2011 10:52:50 AM 314 Views
I wish *NM* - 08/07/2011 01:27:28 PM 274 Views
Re: Currently on a bus again. Rana, why did you watch who you did? - 08/07/2011 07:08:46 AM 664 Views
Also, RBIRL again - 08/07/2011 07:12:52 AM 525 Views
I'm gone this weekend too, but not long enough to need a RBIRL. *NM* - 08/07/2011 06:04:34 PM 288 Views
No Lynch has occured. Twilight incoming *NM* - 10/07/2011 04:50:20 AM 318 Views
Twilight - 10/07/2011 06:47:04 AM 787 Views

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