I think obviously we can hold off on any RC claims by beet or DK for now, we've got three options:
1 - Fox is the cop
2 - Fox is scum
3 - Fox is town and lying
Discarding 3 out of hand for the moment, our presumed next step would be to ask everyone to confirm they are not the cop, or have or know of a role so close as to presumably fill that role. But there's a problem, if he's scum, he may be consider his death highly probable and wish to expose the cop via counterclaim on his way out, he did something very like this last game and of course has a history of fake RCing as power roles like lie-detector or Shaido Semi-doc. I'd cite as possible motive that everyone who selected Option B except FT and Fox himself wanted Fox to RC, which was a strong indicator he'd be the default lynchee and if we didn't buy his claim we'd have lynched him.
Of course he could be telling the truth, and we can confirm this by asking everyone to say they aren't. This leaves us 5 outcomes:
A) Fox is the cop, we take him at his word and drive on to additional RCs
B) Fox is the cop, we don't take him at his word, and have everybody disavow
C) We ask everyone to disavow, and expose our real cop, then lynch Fox
D) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as the cop
E) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as scum, our cop still hidden
These all seem plausible paths except for A, we've no reason if we believe him not to ask everyone to say so. If we pursue and get B, Fox is our cop, of degraded use of course, and FT can be considered probtown. If we get C, we take a horrible hit but the scummers lose a man. If it's D, we lose our cop, who is of lesser value, but at least know we can probably trust FT. And if we get E we get the best possible outcome we can hope for, a dead scummer and a still secret cop. We obviously only get to make two decisions here, whether or not to ask everyone and whether or not to lynch, but they more or less have to be made in tandem. If we don't ask everyone, we lynch him, and if we do ask everyone the decision to lynch will be made for us by that outcome. To me this is a very WIFOM situation, because Fox has a record of doing this sort of claim when scum, but the claim is entirely plausible.
Personally my gut says to just kill him now, because he's unlikely if truthful to help us much beyond what he'd have already done, prob-town FT, and it gives us our chance at E, a dead scummer and a still secret cop, but I may be biased on the subject But it is further complicated since we have to ask people not just if they are the cop but if they have any reason to think the classic cop isn't in play, even a partial but truthful data dump on this could hurt us even if Fox is being truthful. Regardless I would ask for a consensus on this before anyone starts shouting out that they aren't the cop or for that matter that they are the cop. Either we off him now, without anyone saying if they are or arne't cop or cop-like, because a few idle "Well, I'm not the cop" or "I believe him" [which says the same] gives the scummers one more person to mark off on the real cop hunt, or we ask everybody to say they "Have no reason to significantly doubt fox's claim from their role message" and if that comes up 100% we move on, we need to pick which first. We DO NOT need a number of people casually saying they trust Fox's claim or aren't the cop until we determine which road we want to go, because it gains us nothing, it may cost us nothing but it gains us nothing no matter what.
1 - Fox is the cop
2 - Fox is scum
3 - Fox is town and lying
Discarding 3 out of hand for the moment, our presumed next step would be to ask everyone to confirm they are not the cop, or have or know of a role so close as to presumably fill that role. But there's a problem, if he's scum, he may be consider his death highly probable and wish to expose the cop via counterclaim on his way out, he did something very like this last game and of course has a history of fake RCing as power roles like lie-detector or Shaido Semi-doc. I'd cite as possible motive that everyone who selected Option B except FT and Fox himself wanted Fox to RC, which was a strong indicator he'd be the default lynchee and if we didn't buy his claim we'd have lynched him.
Of course he could be telling the truth, and we can confirm this by asking everyone to say they aren't. This leaves us 5 outcomes:
A) Fox is the cop, we take him at his word and drive on to additional RCs
B) Fox is the cop, we don't take him at his word, and have everybody disavow
C) We ask everyone to disavow, and expose our real cop, then lynch Fox
D) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as the cop
E) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as scum, our cop still hidden
These all seem plausible paths except for A, we've no reason if we believe him not to ask everyone to say so. If we pursue and get B, Fox is our cop, of degraded use of course, and FT can be considered probtown. If we get C, we take a horrible hit but the scummers lose a man. If it's D, we lose our cop, who is of lesser value, but at least know we can probably trust FT. And if we get E we get the best possible outcome we can hope for, a dead scummer and a still secret cop. We obviously only get to make two decisions here, whether or not to ask everyone and whether or not to lynch, but they more or less have to be made in tandem. If we don't ask everyone, we lynch him, and if we do ask everyone the decision to lynch will be made for us by that outcome. To me this is a very WIFOM situation, because Fox has a record of doing this sort of claim when scum, but the claim is entirely plausible.
Personally my gut says to just kill him now, because he's unlikely if truthful to help us much beyond what he'd have already done, prob-town FT, and it gives us our chance at E, a dead scummer and a still secret cop, but I may be biased on the subject But it is further complicated since we have to ask people not just if they are the cop but if they have any reason to think the classic cop isn't in play, even a partial but truthful data dump on this could hurt us even if Fox is being truthful. Regardless I would ask for a consensus on this before anyone starts shouting out that they aren't the cop or for that matter that they are the cop. Either we off him now, without anyone saying if they are or arne't cop or cop-like, because a few idle "Well, I'm not the cop" or "I believe him" [which says the same] gives the scummers one more person to mark off on the real cop hunt, or we ask everybody to say they "Have no reason to significantly doubt fox's claim from their role message" and if that comes up 100% we move on, we need to pick which first. We DO NOT need a number of people casually saying they trust Fox's claim or aren't the cop until we determine which road we want to go, because it gains us nothing, it may cost us nothing but it gains us nothing no matter what.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Mafia 22: Day 2 - Get the Ball Rolling
05/05/2011 07:29:12 PM
- 2758 Views
Well, I guess that's for the best.
05/05/2011 07:46:52 PM
- 944 Views
Yeah, I guess that's not a worst case scenario
05/05/2011 08:19:50 PM
- 922 Views
Actually, probably best thing that could have happened, to be honest.
05/05/2011 08:36:57 PM
- 820 Views
OK, so the Bergioyn thing was kind of a bust
06/05/2011 04:58:14 AM
- 794 Views
I am against this plan.
06/05/2011 05:53:27 AM
- 835 Views
I'm inclined to agree with beetnemesis, actually.
06/05/2011 08:27:54 AM
- 929 Views
Are you really that sure that DK is evil to vote?
06/05/2011 12:24:21 PM
- 868 Views
Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 02:04:01 AM
- 855 Views
Re: Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 03:01:55 AM
- 912 Views
Re: Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 05:10:09 AM
- 788 Views
A roleclaim seems pretty reasonable
07/05/2011 07:00:53 AM
- 840 Views
I think he wants identity claims, not roleclaims. Otherwise he'd have asked for mine too. *NM*
07/05/2011 07:15:50 AM
- 495 Views
Yes, just character *NM*
07/05/2011 02:22:50 PM
- 550 Views
Ah, that's probably better.
07/05/2011 06:46:03 PM
- 947 Views
Well, if DK is RBIRL,
07/05/2011 08:06:04 PM
- 959 Views
I could
08/05/2011 07:06:44 PM
- 895 Views
Would you mind coding it beforehand?
08/05/2011 08:59:16 PM
- 958 Views
I agree. A code would be ideal here.
08/05/2011 10:14:54 PM
- 809 Views
Good idea. OK, here it is.
09/05/2011 12:28:08 AM
- 922 Views
When you say you "don't like doing codes a lot", does that mean you don't want all of us to do it?
09/05/2011 06:30:52 PM
- 963 Views
Certainly, I'll enlighten as best I can.
07/05/2011 07:15:03 AM
- 930 Views
Yeah, we haven't waited for a modkill in a while. I think that's a problem we need to work on
07/05/2011 04:32:41 PM
- 861 Views
Okay, that pretty much answered all my questions
07/05/2011 04:44:34 PM
- 814 Views
Le Sigh
10/05/2011 01:48:19 AM
- 779 Views
Re: Le Sigh
10/05/2011 04:03:47 AM
- 837 Views
Everybody in Greek myth is drenched in blood.
10/05/2011 04:24:14 AM
- 736 Views
And we don't really have a clue what we're looking for in the scum either.
10/05/2011 06:45:09 PM
- 792 Views
OK, and my decryption:
10/05/2011 05:42:32 AM
- 938 Views
Code checks, let's go ahead an audit them
10/05/2011 07:22:36 AM
- 838 Views
Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 04:09:20 AM
- 801 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 04:19:55 AM
- 852 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 05:46:49 AM
- 807 Views
Alexander seems a bit off-flavor, but I can see Leonidas as a possibility
11/05/2011 06:17:51 AM
- 1014 Views
Re: Alexander seems a bit off-flavor, but I can see Leonidas as a possibility
11/05/2011 07:04:08 PM
- 830 Views
I've a feeling we could probably exclude the Persians
11/05/2011 07:20:58 PM
- 813 Views
You can go ahead and do that.
11/05/2011 09:17:11 PM
- 884 Views
Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
11/05/2011 10:02:14 PM
- 821 Views
Re: Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
11/05/2011 11:21:44 PM
- 912 Views
I was referring to ranagrande's "Have you heard of your character" question
12/05/2011 12:39:55 AM
- 829 Views
If you guys are going to guess what my character is, why not jsut ask me to character claim?
12/05/2011 02:53:17 AM
- 711 Views
Re: Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
12/05/2011 03:29:52 AM
- 836 Views
I think Troy was in Asia
12/05/2011 03:53:13 AM
- 860 Views
Yes, it's in Anatolia.
12/05/2011 04:50:06 AM
- 848 Views
So I wikipediaed it.
12/05/2011 05:23:37 AM
- 860 Views
Wow, 'historicity' is a word, I never knew that
12/05/2011 05:43:53 AM
- 842 Views
Yeah, I'm not opposed, I had just always assumed the Trojans were Greeks, so I was surprised.
12/05/2011 05:54:24 AM
- 771 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 09:16:11 PM
- 797 Views
I actually believe Katie.
11/05/2011 01:11:17 AM
- 807 Views
I think most of us do, but I don't think you've contemplated the facts thoroughly
11/05/2011 03:53:30 AM
- 884 Views
So...
11/05/2011 03:11:35 AM
- 935 Views
Re: So...
11/05/2011 03:51:57 AM
- 810 Views
Wait, we have that?
11/05/2011 04:44:10 AM
- 929 Views
11/05/2011 05:13:50 AM
- 811 Views
Yea, I tend to skim when your posts get too long, unless their life-or-death, so to speak. *NM*
11/05/2011 06:45:07 AM
- 493 Views
One might note that when they get 'too long', there's generally a reason they did
11/05/2011 06:57:38 PM
- 837 Views
Yes, but sometimes that reason is that you want to bury suspicions in a wall of text . *NM*
11/05/2011 11:20:01 PM
- 515 Views
Probably not
11/05/2011 11:56:11 PM
- 746 Views
I'm not going to lie, I'm trying to decide of you are serious or not.
11/05/2011 05:36:59 AM
- 898 Views
My character claim.
12/05/2011 02:27:03 PM
- 868 Views
Good job at making yourself incredibly suspicious
12/05/2011 03:24:18 PM
- 819 Views
BUM BUM BUMMMMMMMMMMMMM
12/05/2011 04:17:51 PM
- 862 Views
Yeah, that probably requires some explaining away
12/05/2011 09:13:39 PM
- 825 Views
Not true this time.
12/05/2011 11:27:55 PM
- 825 Views
Re: Not true this time.
12/05/2011 11:57:58 PM
- 784 Views
Re: Not true this time.
13/05/2011 12:01:46 AM
- 801 Views
Pretty much that you're wrong
13/05/2011 01:14:28 AM
- 823 Views
I am wrong, judging by Hobo's post
13/05/2011 01:24:38 AM
- 796 Views
I admit this is possible, but...
13/05/2011 01:36:28 AM
- 824 Views
Re: I admit this is possible, but...
13/05/2011 01:46:51 AM
- 904 Views
2 things about that.
12/05/2011 11:26:14 PM
- 776 Views
This is an easy misunderstanding.
13/05/2011 12:24:52 AM
- 792 Views
Actually, can we get a quick headcount?
15/05/2011 12:10:11 AM
- 772 Views
Yo.
15/05/2011 01:15:05 AM
- 858 Views
We seem to have reached an impasse
17/05/2011 01:07:29 PM
- 998 Views
Option Pick (Table)
17/05/2011 11:13:07 PM
- 873 Views
Yeah, I'm not specially fond of roleclaiming this early in the game.
18/05/2011 01:51:36 AM
- 831 Views
Okay Fox, it looks like it's gonna be you
19/05/2011 03:32:47 AM
- 836 Views
I guess that's plausible
19/05/2011 06:02:21 AM
- 841 Views
Re: I guess that's plausible
19/05/2011 06:19:57 AM
- 827 Views
It is a strategy that is most valuable the earlier you use it though.
19/05/2011 06:39:29 AM
- 789 Views
I say don't RC yet. Wait for us to discuss my claim and where to go from here. *NM*
19/05/2011 03:35:49 PM
- 521 Views
Okay, cop claim in play, so what do we want to do?
19/05/2011 06:01:55 AM
- 993 Views
Even if he has been outed as the cop
19/05/2011 06:24:31 AM
- 763 Views
Hm. The roleblocker is a pretty big thing. If one of us is cop though, come foward
19/05/2011 06:54:30 AM
- 765 Views
It also ties up their roleblocker though.
19/05/2011 06:56:29 AM
- 885 Views
The one thing that makes me slightly suspect the claim
19/05/2011 12:49:38 PM
- 918 Views
Nevermind
19/05/2011 12:51:44 PM
- 909 Views
Anyway, you would think that because of my previously flub ups, I'd learn.
19/05/2011 03:43:09 PM
- 855 Views
"Because I've demonstrated a penchant for making mistakes, obviously this time is for real."
19/05/2011 06:21:17 PM
- 971 Views
OK then, I'll RC
20/05/2011 07:23:07 PM
- 858 Views
Makes sense to me.
22/05/2011 05:43:56 PM
- 833 Views
I'm the cop.
22/05/2011 09:50:11 PM
- 941 Views
Well this was easier than expected.
22/05/2011 10:24:52 PM
- 840 Views
Wow, yeah. Wtf is this? Vote: Darth Katie. *NM*
23/05/2011 12:15:14 AM
- 466 Views
Hmm...
23/05/2011 01:42:32 AM
- 924 Views
We can make an argument to lynch her purely off the "lynch all liars" rule as F-T said.
23/05/2011 02:10:11 AM
- 978 Views
*Hits self in the face repeatedly*
23/05/2011 09:19:40 AM
- 788 Views
Did I mention I didn't get a lot of sleep last night?
23/05/2011 09:25:15 AM
- 697 Views
I can believe that at least
23/05/2011 10:29:12 AM
- 887 Views
Oh please
23/05/2011 02:35:28 PM
- 891 Views
This would all be more believable
23/05/2011 03:32:31 PM
- 767 Views
I didn't remember that about Option B
23/05/2011 03:52:11 PM
- 865 Views
I will *Unvote* for now
23/05/2011 05:42:22 PM
- 931 Views
You don't approve of a doctor that can protect himself?
23/05/2011 11:23:58 PM
- 822 Views
Yeah, this is what I expected the other plausible screw-up to be.
23/05/2011 07:10:46 PM
- 781 Views
So... Fox and DK have both claimed cop?
23/05/2011 02:34:30 AM
- 836 Views
Well, now the switch around to a Doc claim.
23/05/2011 03:56:48 PM
- 778 Views
He's Beloved though (if he's not scum)
23/05/2011 04:07:06 PM
- 974 Views
Yeah, this whole thing didn't really work out too well
23/05/2011 04:38:30 PM
- 780 Views
It's been an unmitigated disaster
23/05/2011 06:01:23 PM
- 834 Views
So, uh... Wow.
23/05/2011 07:38:36 PM
- 847 Views
Before this Mass RC idea takes hold...
23/05/2011 07:59:18 PM
- 870 Views
All right...
23/05/2011 08:29:28 PM
- 951 Views
Possibly
23/05/2011 08:51:52 PM
- 857 Views
Was it Kronin or Gher that did the whole "everyone is a robot with a Backup Role" game?
23/05/2011 11:28:05 PM
- 827 Views
I want to start off by saying that I believe DK.
23/05/2011 08:21:26 PM
- 885 Views
Re: I want to start off by saying that I believe DK.
23/05/2011 08:41:10 PM
- 797 Views
Another point against Isaac:
23/05/2011 11:32:14 PM
- 854 Views
Actually, I didn't suspect either you or DK, you brought that up
23/05/2011 11:54:19 PM
- 876 Views
Re: Actually, I didn't suspect either you or DK, you brought that up
24/05/2011 12:28:24 AM
- 887 Views
So, seeing no objections to the mass character claim, let's start!
26/05/2011 01:16:36 AM
- 757 Views
Character Claims (table)
26/05/2011 02:48:44 AM
- 890 Views
Okay here goes.
26/05/2011 09:32:59 PM
- 763 Views
I'm Zeno. *NM*
27/05/2011 01:40:47 AM
- 524 Views
How paradoxical... I actually thought Xena for a moment
27/05/2011 03:08:57 AM
- 1016 Views
I guess Xena is close, though it might take a while to get from there to Zeno.
27/05/2011 05:55:32 AM
- 795 Views
All right
28/05/2011 10:33:48 PM
- 906 Views
Re: All right
29/05/2011 12:42:12 AM
- 1021 Views
Re: All right
31/05/2011 07:09:31 AM
- 867 Views
Heh, looks like I'm holding out for no particular reason.
30/05/2011 07:11:21 PM
- 987 Views
Kronin, what are we doing about Scott's continued absence?
29/05/2011 11:38:52 PM
- 964 Views
Yeah, I've been waiting on Scott's situation to resolve before doing anything
30/05/2011 02:04:07 AM
- 879 Views
Vote: Scott Blademaster
30/05/2011 10:23:50 PM
- 1145 Views
While I generally agree with your reasoning...
31/05/2011 12:10:35 AM
- 1006 Views
I was actually thinking along extremely similar lines before we started doing character claims.
31/05/2011 12:28:44 AM
- 848 Views
Re: I was actually thinking along extremely similar lines before we started doing character claims.
31/05/2011 01:28:49 AM
- 814 Views
I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 01:08:26 AM
- 870 Views
Re: I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 01:35:31 AM
- 961 Views
Re: I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 03:28:20 AM
- 904 Views
Meh, I'm not exactly averse to lynching Scott...
31/05/2011 05:25:14 AM
- 894 Views
So, the way I see it, we have two (well, three) options for our lynch
31/05/2011 04:02:14 PM
- 964 Views
I'm a bit confused at the moment.
31/05/2011 06:27:26 PM
- 820 Views
Obviously, I would be against lynching me.
31/05/2011 07:41:15 PM
- 894 Views
I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
31/05/2011 10:11:32 PM
- 906 Views
Re: I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
01/06/2011 12:37:36 AM
- 838 Views
Re: I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
01/06/2011 09:27:32 PM
- 824 Views
Re: So, the way I see it, we have two (well, three) options for our lynch
31/05/2011 08:13:17 PM
- 968 Views
Responses!
31/05/2011 10:41:38 PM
- 954 Views
Re: Responses!
01/06/2011 02:32:22 AM
- 790 Views
That is an awful lot of talking to refute me
01/06/2011 04:41:13 AM
- 766 Views
I could go find my mallet again if brevity is desired, glad you've acknowledged I refuted you though
01/06/2011 05:18:46 AM
- 1049 Views
About ?
01/06/2011 09:41:44 PM
- 905 Views
Huh, that was way more revealing than expected
01/06/2011 10:30:55 PM
- 787 Views
It IS pretty hard to say "Oh, well he's a new player" at this point *NM*
02/06/2011 12:40:32 AM
- 479 Views
Kronin actually hasn't answered my question about last Night yet.
02/06/2011 03:17:05 AM
- 769 Views
Well, I do sincerely doubt a philosopher's ring is in play
31/05/2011 10:39:41 PM
- 875 Views
Ohhhh! You know, I looked up a bunch of famous Spartans on Wikipedia when I read that
31/05/2011 10:44:05 PM
- 878 Views
I'm decently suspicious of ranagrande.
01/06/2011 03:55:26 PM
- 922 Views
True- as long as DK protects you, you've got at least one more night
01/06/2011 06:47:36 PM
- 855 Views
Re: True- as long as DK protects you, you've got at least one more night
01/06/2011 08:36:40 PM
- 912 Views
Hey, sorry all.
02/06/2011 04:45:45 AM
- 756 Views
No questions in particular
02/06/2011 05:10:52 AM
- 763 Views
Thoughts
02/06/2011 05:09:37 AM
- 932 Views
So couple of things:
02/06/2011 09:05:16 AM
- 849 Views
Well, basically DK's "Thoughts" post sums up my thoughts pretty well.
03/06/2011 01:34:52 AM
- 822 Views
Yeah, he seems to be prime suspect.
03/06/2011 12:48:30 PM
- 813 Views
I will also Vote: ?
04/06/2011 01:56:32 AM
- 804 Views
Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched. *NM*
04/06/2011 03:14:43 AM
- 414 Views
Re: Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched.
04/06/2011 12:18:53 PM
- 896 Views
Re: Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched.
04/06/2011 02:28:49 PM
- 832 Views
So, our titular rolling ball seems to be headed straight at ?. ?, do you have any thoughts? *NM*
03/06/2011 02:53:37 AM
- 498 Views
I am ?'s Mason Partner.
04/06/2011 06:44:26 PM
- 867 Views
I am itching to vote for him right now.
04/06/2011 07:01:34 PM
- 794 Views
That's true. Not only did he prematurely roleclaim, he prematurely FALSELY roleclaimed *NM*
04/06/2011 09:06:22 PM
- 490 Views
In my opinion that doesn't help him at all.
04/06/2011 07:41:00 PM
- 910 Views
I don't think there's much point in waiting on ? anymore
04/06/2011 09:31:26 PM
- 877 Views
I do agree...BUUUUTTTT
04/06/2011 09:58:09 PM
- 772 Views
Vote: ?
05/06/2011 12:56:57 AM
- 893 Views
I WOULD like to hear what ? has to say... but he's certainly taking his sweet time
05/06/2011 01:19:42 AM
- 825 Views
Twilight
05/06/2011 08:42:02 PM
- 887 Views
Re: Twilight
05/06/2011 09:13:07 PM
- 812 Views
Scott, being dead, was not included in the VNTL. *NM*
05/06/2011 10:26:22 PM
- 471 Views
I think he meant 'what was Scott?' *NM*
06/06/2011 12:27:07 AM
- 507 Views
I suppose this place is as good as any to say, Happy Birthday Gher! *NM*
06/06/2011 08:26:56 PM
- 439 Views