True, we've whacked a lot of people for good reasons that turned out false, that's mostly what we do on day 1 really, but if we abandon reason on these we get nowhere, and if anything it serves as a reminder to mods to be careful about such things. Look at the robot game, nothing but red herrings, and many of us said we couldn't trust logic on that one while still voting logically, why? Because there's no other alternative and we figured logic still applied to some degree or another, which was true. If character analysis is meaningless, which we are trying to establish, then we need another route. But we don't know that yet and no one has come forward with an alternate line of inquiry and I've said that the ones I can think of have a strong element of risk in them. A good portion of this game is wild-mass-guessing, we have had a lot of times where a team has won by guessing totally wrong but accidentally getting it right too, last game was a lot like that. By and large our guesswork is more productive then a hindrance though.

Let me cite an example. In a game this size our norm has been for there to be an extra NK in play, partial or total, controlled by the scummer faction, the town, or a third party. Rarely in a game this size do we have a single hitter, particularly if we're role heavy and initial indicators is that we are (to clarify, if vanillas don't make up 50% of the crew, you're technically role heavy, though in-house I'd say more like iff 5 out of our 13 players aren't vanilla we are role heavy)

Now, let's say I have concluded we probably have some other NK in play and I think its matched to characters and not in SKrull hands, and I look at your list:

The Human Torch
The Hulk
Magneto
The Punisher

The Punisher stands out as an archetype for the vig role, and MAgneto's a arch-villain and the Hulk is a story all his own. If I thought we had a extra NK in play, a vig scenario for the Punisher would be fairly logical. But let's say I knew you were the Human Torch and could scratch you off that list and there would be a need then to find someone else who might make a logical holder of a NK. Keeping to the Fantastic 4 flavor, lets say someone was the Invisible Woman, she'd be a pretty obvious choice for stealthy watcher, doesn't mean she would be, but it would be weird to bypass that character for the role, or also on the Fan 4 option, the notorious all seeing character "The Watcher" would be a logical watcher choice. Now of course, if you were the Punisher and a vig it wouldn't mean we don't have a SK but it would be less likely, but if I had info indicating you were not, because you were the torch or squirrel girl or whatever, logically I'd scratch you off the NK-likely list if I were working under the assumption that roles correlate to characters, an assumptyion that appears to be true. Scanning down the list, I don't recognize everyone, but nobody else had any ambiguously aligned (not particularly heroes) homicidal sorts, except for your Magneto and Yuna's LEx Luthor - who of course is not a Marvel Character. I'm sure you get my point, lacking much other evidence, we take what we do know and use it, it could easily be wrong but at least its not random. From what I know, the most obvious third party NK would be WF, nobody else really fits the bill. That doesn't mean he is one, and id doesn't mean we have a SK, or even another NK, on the table, but previous games have featured them a lot for parallel circumstances and thus the odds favor it. But that's the whole problem of stats, something either is or isn't, regardless of the probabilities (except in quantum mechanics) a coin will either land head or tails, its not random, its still fair to say it's 50/50 on a given flip and to act accordingly. WF had a list that screamed unlikely or third party, so I pointed it out, and he claimed something I find very unlikely, which is a classic response for a scummer in cases like this, again, doesn't mean he is but the odds are pretty strong, and we've got nothing else right now.