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For the average NFL fan, this is one of the most anticipated times of the year. We are one week away from the annual draft of college players, that fascinating exercise where the NFL Players Association has bargained away the rights of those not yet members of their union. But I digress.

Most fans eagerly await draft night, spending weeks pouring over scouting reports and evaluations while attempting to predict their favorite team’s selections. Underlying this is the hope, even expectation, that they will choose wisely.

Giant fans suffer no such delusion. Instead, we have the utmost confidence our team will fuck it up, based on the indisputable fact that they have done so repeatedly. This year the Giants have the third overall pick in the first round, an advantageous position earned by winning only 3 games out of 17 in 2024. Normally, the expectation would be that my team would come away with a very good, if not great player, especially since a three-win team obviously has multiple needs to be addressed, such as acquiring players with talent.

Ah, but this is the Giants. The consensus top two prospects in this draft are DB/WR Travis Hunter and DE Abdul Carter. One of them is bound to be available when the Giants pick. My preference would be the DE, for reasons I will address, but either one would improve the team. So, what’s the problem?

The Giants are in what some refer to as “quarterback hell,” lacking a so-called franchise quarterback. The prevailing NFL philosophy is that having a franchise QB on a rookie contract is like having a cheat code for success. Thus, all teams dream of acquiring one. This often results in QBs being selected much earlier than their relative ranking on the lists of best prospects. Such drafting is called a “reach,” something the Giants did with Daniel Jones while Dave Gettleman was the GM. My fear is they will do so again because drafting a QB will buy Daboll at least one extra year to develop him.

Let me explain. A couple of weeks ago I saw an interesting chart. It listed all NFL teams by the number of losses this century, from most to least, divided by conference. The Lions and the Browns led each conference with the most losses. The Giants were sixth most in the NFC with 207. The team with the least losses by far in the NFC was Philadelphia with only 170. Since I hate the Eagles more than any other team, this was a bitter blow, but not unexpected.

Why? An analysis of all the Eagles first round draft picks this century is revealing. They drafted 14 defensive linemen in the first round, four offensive linemen, four wide receivers, three defensive backs, one linebacker, and one quarterback. Three of the wide outs and the QB were misses. The rest were mostly successful. They reflect their GM Howie Roseman’s philosophy of building through the lines and that you can never have too many pass rushers. This philosophy obviously works.

Conversely, if draft rumors are to be believed, should the Giants pick Abdul Carter, which would be smart, they will then look to trade Kayvon Thibodeaux because, “he plays the same position.” This makes me crazy. Successful teams build quality depth and figure out a way to get them all on the field. That’s why coordinators get paid so much. God forbid the Giants stack talent.

Also rumblings persist that they might still take Shedeur Sanders at 3, even after signing two free agent quarterbacks. This would be a disaster. The scout comparisons for Sanders are Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield with less arm strength, and a slower Daniel Jones. I am facepalming as I type this.

My preference would be for GM Schoen to trade back to accumulate picks and then improve both lines. Second choice, draft Carter and try to build a great pass rush. My confidence that either will happen is not zero but not much higher than that.