View original postWhat are you trying to claim? It's not as if I even mentioned any very specific numbers in my post, so I'm confused here.
Indeed, you did not specify. But since you talk about a staggering number of children killed, I would assume you had some numbers, not making them up.
View original postView original postSecond, some 60% of the population of Gaza is under 18. I expect they have many fighters who could be classified as children. Many IDF troops are barely more than children.
View original postSo how many of the victims, according to you/the IDF, are Hamas fighters? How many of the child victims are?
View original postView original postBut really, there is no other option. The US and western governments get that. Elon Musk, god bless him, said he hoped Israel would turn the other cheek. Impossible. But even if you just do a routine, by the numbers, tit for tat, who would be crazy enough to return to living anywhere near Gaza ?
View original post'There is no other option' is bullshit. Certainly, the Israeli attack on Gaza was the expected reaction to the events of October 7th - expected also by Hamas' planners in advance, yet they did it anyway, because they knew that it would help them in the court of both Palestinian and global public opinion. But that doesn't mean it was the only possible reaction - or that it was a smart one. I'm sure you're familiar with the strategical advice from Sun Tzu and other thinkers to avoid reacting to enemy provocations in the way they expect and want you to.
That is easy to say from far away.
Still, I find your attitude quite dismissive, I should say.
If the Yezidis had an army, would you tell them they shouldn't launch a campaign to retrieve their daughters from ISIS ? Because Abu Bakr would expect that ?
I don't even understand what you are suggesting. From your answer, it seems you at least agree Hamas is Israel's enemy, which is something, I guess. But just some regular tit-for-tat doesn't cut it for something worse than the Yom Kippur war. So what, cower behind walls proven to fail ? Emigrate to Alaska as the Ayatalloh suggested ?
View original postAnd now the patience of even the US is running out, while nobody in Israel seems to have any real idea when this operation could stop or what could happen next after it.
View original postYou think this offensive isn't inviting more terrorism against Israel? If you kill a good number of Hamas fighters but at the same time give them ten times as many future recruits due to the enormous collateral damage, while also further weakening Israel's already limited international support, that sure looks like a very Pyrrhic kind of victory to me. In the end Hamas is still a terrorist organization, which you can't defeat in a conventional war. Of course they have a dual role and also govern the Gaza Strip, but under such circumstances and constraints that the point still holds.
I get that. But sometimes your choices are between a bad one and a horrific one.
You can't defeat a terrorist organization by surrendering to it either. Israel has done pretty well against Hamas in the West Bank, even though it is more populated.
It's very much against my previous beliefs, and hasn't really taken hold, but I don't see any way around it:
It was the attempt to reach a peace deal that led here. Maybe in the 70s, before Islamism became as wide spread, some deal could be reached, but I wasn't alive back then so I don't know.
Before Oslo there was an intifada of rocks and knives. After Oslo it was suicide bombings and rockets. I mostly supported Oslo, my bad.
Sharon decided to pull out of Gaza. He sold it to the Israeli public as gaining international legitimacy in case of a conflict. I bought that kool-aid. I figured after so much bad blood, if we left them alone, they would leave us alone. Again, my bad. It hasn't gained Israel any international legitimacy, but deteriorated our security.
View original postView original postIsrael got off easy, because it seems the Iranian plan was probably to coordinate the same from the North and Gaza at the same time. Imagine 10000 Syrian-war veteran Hizbullah fighters descending on a thinly manned border while people are protesting a judicial reform. Might have taken 6 months to drive them off if at all. Who knows how many dead.
View original postHizbullah is stronger conventionally than Hamas, no doubt, but on the other hand, they are a Lebanese political player and in the end care more about their position in Lebanon than about attacking Israel. So I see them as less of a problem in the greater scheme of things.
Well, you are wrong. A political player that assassinated Rafik Hariri with impunity. That caused the Beirut port explosion and paid no price. They do in Lebanon as they wish. That is not to say they have no Lebanese considerations, but whos to say how intrinsic they are in such a fractured country ?
Before 7.10 many might have said the same of Hamas. It was the belief of the Israeli top that Hamas had softened by the demands of controlling a population.
In the previous 2 rounds of tit-for-tat only the much weaker Islamic Jihad took part.
They demanded more work permits in Israel. They staged some demonstrations for prisoners in Israeli prisons. Demanding more visitation rights and such. But in hindsight this was just a front to lull our intelligence officers into a false narrative.
Now you claim with such assurance Hezbollah is a political player. You don't know that.
View original postView original postSo now there is really nothing to it but to kill as many Hamas and friends as possible. And yeah, the hard part will come after, because I have no idea what to do with that black hole.
View original postNor does anyone else, that I've seen - except most of us think that if you couldn't think of a viable endgame, you shouldn't have gone in like that in the first place. As the Americans showed already several times over, in this century and the previous one.
I agree it is better to have an endgame. But if the choice is between the Yezidi or American path, it is better go the American even without an endgame.
Also, let's remember the ceasefire after the 2006 war held until now, even though that war also had no end game.
For me, a good result would be to have no hostages in Gaza without a massive prisoner exchange. It would be best if most were retrieved alive, but most importantly they must all be retrieved. All Hamas leadership on the ground must be eliminated. Gaza power station must be switched to clean energy.
View original postView original postPersonally, I think the PA should control it with IDF backing, sort of reversing the 2005 withdrawl. But that doesn't have much support, so I don't know.