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Re: I almost feel like I'm coming down with something, but I'm not sure. Lupine Send a noteboard - 28/10/2009 08:40:17 AM

Some of the medical people here have told me that 7 in 10 people (at least in my province) are expected to get it. Don't know if that's realistic or reliable though.

Wow. That's... pretty crazy.

Since the mortality rate is about 0.5% (I think, and the following holds true even if that number is lower), the more people passing it around, the more people might die of it. Plus, the more people out walking around spreading the virus, the higher the chance someone in a high risk group (ie. pregnant women) will get infected. Each individual person staying home might not make much of a difference. But in the global game of statistics, it all adds up to lives saved.

EDIT - I just read 0.4% mortality rate somewhere else. In other words, 4 in every 1000, on average. Some other sources say that it may only be 0.1%, 1 in every 1000, which is comparable to the seasonal flu.

Actually, that first number is still a bit scary if as many as 70% of the population could get it. That would be like 80,000 deaths in America! (Unless my math is horribly wrong, which it well could be.)

However, if half the world's population (for example) contracts H1N1, then a 0.1% mortality rate would result in 3.5 million deaths, mostly in China and India. So, y'know ... here's hoping that's wrong. We'll have to wait and see. Since this is the first time the virus is really spreading into the full global population, any stats like that are suspect at this point. And I don't know if that takes into account the fact that a large number of people over the age of 52, who were exposed to the 1957 pandemic, seem to have more immunity to H1N1 than everyone else.

Oh yeah, you went on with this line of reasoning yourself.

But yes, those are all really interesting points.

You're a more interesting source for news than my actual local news.

EDIT 2 - Another scientific source claims that the mortality rates quoted so far could be exaggerated due to how H1N1 has been reported up to date, and suggests 0.007 to 0.045% mortality rates. The upper end of that would see, at half the world being exposed, 1.5 million deaths (and 250,000 deaths at the lowest mortality rate). Which might be more in line with what we've seen so far, but as I said before, it's all conjecture until the winter hits and puts the damn thing to bed.

You think that will happen? Yay! Paul is still scheduled to come visit in winter, and I'd been worrying that he might be likely to get it, after being relatively safe in Belgium.

As long as you aren't coughing on people. And wear gloves in case you have to touch door handles or any high-hand-traffic area like that.

Oh, good idea.

I think the global death toll is around 5000, 6000 right now? Something like that. That seems like a lot, but annually, between 250,000 and 500,000 people across the world die of the regular flu. So it's certainly not the end of the world just yet.

It all comes down to the true fatality rate, which is inevitably just guesswork atm, as you noted. It's almost certain that more people will get this one than the regular flu, at least in areas where it's widespread, but if it's generally just a mild thing, then it need only be a cost and an annoyance, not a disaster.

1. Have you had swine flu? What was it like for you? (Symptoms, duration.)

Today I've felt weird. Tired and the hint of a sore throat and achey eyes. I don't know if I'm about to come down with something or not. I've let my boss know that it's a possibility, and will see how I'm doing in the morning. Perhaps I should be staying home just in case even if my symptoms are only mild? But that puts a lot of extra work on other people at my work, and I don't want to do that to them if I don't have to ...

I'm not a doctor and reputed to be terrible at judging me own health circumstances, but that has never stopped me from giving advice before, so...

I'd say for the time being, just get rest and fluids and see if you can conquer it before it gets ahold of you. It doesn't seem like staying home would be mandatory just yet.

2. Do you know anyone who has?

You!

I'm special!
Actually, I am special- see my reply to Aemon for why my case isn't really that representative.

We've had a few cases here. Not much going on for measures, except that there's an H1N1 vaccine clinic on Thursday. There have been a few deaths from it in neighbouring communities, four or five of them.

Yikes. That's a bit scary.

Never have, no. Well, I guess I was quarantined from other kids when I had chicken pox. But I gave it to my brother and my cousin at the same time, so we all hung out together and played video games.

Haha, awesome.

It's definitely been overblown. More people will probably catch it than catch the normal flu. The final death toll can't be known right now, but aside from staying home when you have it, people should probably just live their lives and not panic. Wash your hands, try not to touch your face, that sort of thing. For most people it'll just be a normal flu, if they even catch it. That doesn't mean it's not serious; it is. But it's not the end of the world and it doesn't do any good to panic over it.

Okay, I apologize for repeating you at some points during this reply. Clearly great minds think alike, and great-minds-on-meds don't always remember what they read just a couple hours ago.

But in essence, we're very much in agreement.

spacespacesplLupine
saceFormerly known as Clover
Still Paul's friend ♥ and Pippin's mum
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/Survey: So... is swine flu affecting you/people you know yet? Lupine - 27/10/2009 11:29:51 PM 762 Views

It is raging here Erith - 27/10/2009 11:42:41 PM 402 Views

Good on you for getting vaccinated. Lupine - 27/10/2009 11:58:06 PM 476 Views

Re: Good on you for getting vaccinated. Avendesora - 28/10/2009 12:59:02 AM 401 Views

That's right, feel guilty! Lupine - 28/10/2009 01:14:50 AM 383 Views

I live in Oklahoma Erith - 29/10/2009 01:32:34 AM 473 Views

Get better soon! Stephen - 27/10/2009 11:53:27 PM 427 Views

Good plan, I'd say... Lupine - 28/10/2009 12:00:45 AM 340 Views

Re: Good plan, I'd say... Stephen - 28/10/2009 12:07:10 AM 345 Views

of course you can walk pippin! temeraire - 28/10/2009 01:29:23 AM 408 Views

Lupine - 28/10/2009 01:31:52 AM 359 Views

Re: /Survey: So... is swine flu affecting you/people you know yet? Great Lord of Chaos - 28/10/2009 01:42:05 AM 424 Views

Re: /Survey: So... is swine flu affecting you/people you know yet? Antigone - 28/10/2009 01:48:58 AM 405 Views

a few of my students have had it... Mat Girl - 28/10/2009 02:12:51 AM 361 Views

Get well soon! Danu - 28/10/2009 03:13:20 AM 441 Views

I almost feel like I'm coming down with something, but I'm not sure. Nate - 28/10/2009 03:26:26 AM 550 Views

Re: I almost feel like I'm coming down with something, but I'm not sure. Lupine - 28/10/2009 08:40:17 AM 491 Views

I think I've had it. Symptoms seemed to match, anyway. Aemon - 28/10/2009 05:31:46 AM 443 Views

Odd. Lupine - 28/10/2009 08:27:42 AM 526 Views

A final note on my experience with the flu (since all the rest is here). Lupine - 30/10/2009 12:15:40 AM 403 Views

I feel I am getting ill this week ironclad - 28/10/2009 08:45:33 AM 365 Views

Drink tea, eat oranges.

Lupine - 28/10/2009 08:54:44 AM 457 Views

Will do

ironclad - 28/10/2009 09:02:57 AM 445 Views

Re: Will do

Lupine - 28/10/2009 09:31:44 AM 373 Views

Re: Will do

ironclad - 28/10/2009 09:38:45 AM 405 Views

It's a sinus infection, once again *sigh* *NM* ironclad - 29/10/2009 09:16:01 AM 192 Views

Hope it leaves you alone soon! *NM* Lupine - 30/10/2009 12:10:46 AM 167 Views

It's not very wide-spread here Floffe - 28/10/2009 09:17:20 AM 389 Views

We've had 7 people die from it at my hospital. Nurse Denice - 28/10/2009 09:21:45 AM 409 Views

I suspect that working at a hospital gives you a rather biased sample of the populace. *NM* Ghavrel - 29/10/2009 12:16:16 AM 166 Views

i agree *NM* LadyLorraine - 29/10/2009 02:13:55 AM 157 Views

Sure is. Elaine - 28/10/2009 12:22:30 PM 449 Views

apparently a lot of people had it at my uni LadyLorraine - 28/10/2009 01:39:43 PM 460 Views

According to the CDC, on average 36,000 die from the flu each year in the US. The Shrike - 28/10/2009 01:53:35 PM 377 Views

Thank you, Greg. Finally, someone points out what it seems the general populace has forgotten! Taardad Maiden - 30/10/2009 12:06:23 PM 477 Views

I think the worry is just that it's more contagious, which would be bad if a fiercer strain Lupine - 30/10/2009 01:32:00 PM 434 Views

What do you mean, "you/people"?

Burr - 28/10/2009 03:01:35 PM 435 Views

Re: I keep forgetting who you are! Poor Angie. *NM* Danae al'Thor - 28/10/2009 06:55:15 PM 157 Views

Had it. Wasn't so bad. Monique - 30/10/2009 02:38:48 PM 380 Views

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<quote id="39959">
<quote id="39903">Some of the medical people here have told me that 7 in 10 people (at least in my province) are expected to get it. Don't know if that's realistic or reliable though.</quote>
Wow. That's... pretty crazy.

<quote id="39903">Since the mortality rate is about 0.5% (I think, and the following holds true even if that number is lower), the more people passing it around, the more people might die of it. Plus, the more people out walking around spreading the virus, the higher the chance someone in a high risk group (ie. pregnant women) will get infected. Each individual person staying home might not make much of a difference. But in the global game of statistics, it all adds up to lives saved.</quote>
<quote id="39903">EDIT - I just read 0.4% mortality rate somewhere else. In other words, 4 in every 1000, on average. Some other sources say that it may only be 0.1%, 1 in every 1000, which is comparable to the seasonal flu.</quote>
Actually, that first number is still a bit scary if as many as 70% of the population could get it.  That would be like 80,000 deaths in America! (Unless my math is horribly wrong, which it well could be.)

<quote id="39903">However, if half the world's population (for example) contracts H1N1, then a 0.1% mortality rate would result in 3.5 million deaths, mostly in China and India. So, y'know ... here's hoping that's wrong. We'll have to wait and see. Since this is the first time the virus is really spreading into the full global population, any stats like that are suspect at this point. And I don't know if that takes into account the fact that a large number of people over the age of 52, who were exposed to the 1957 pandemic, seem to have more immunity to H1N1 than everyone else.</quote>
Oh yeah, you went on with this line of reasoning yourself. ;) But yes, those are all really interesting points. :) You're a more interesting source for news than my actual local news. :P

<quote id="39903">EDIT 2 - Another scientific source claims that the mortality rates quoted so far could be exaggerated due to how H1N1 has been reported up to date, and suggests 0.007 to 0.045% mortality rates. The upper end of that would see, at half the world being exposed, 1.5 million deaths (and 250,000 deaths at the lowest mortality rate). Which might be more in line with what we've seen so far, but as I said before, it's all conjecture until the winter hits and puts the damn thing to bed.</quote>
You think that will happen? Yay! Paul is still scheduled to come visit in winter, and I'd been worrying that he might be likely to get it, after being relatively safe in Belgium.

<quote id="39903">As long as you aren't coughing on people. And wear gloves in case you have to touch door handles or any high-hand-traffic area like that.</quote>
Oh, good idea.

<quote id="39903">I think the global death toll is around 5000, 6000 right now? Something like that. That seems like a lot, but annually, between 250,000 and 500,000 people across the world die of the regular flu. So it's certainly not the end of the world just yet.</quote>
It all comes down to the true fatality rate, which is inevitably just guesswork atm, as you noted. It's almost certain that more people will get this one than the regular flu, at least in areas where it's widespread, but if it's generally just a mild thing, then it need only be a cost and an annoyance, not a disaster.

<quote id="39903"><quote id="39826">1. Have you had swine flu? What was it like for you? (Symptoms, duration.)</quote></quote>
<quote id="39903">Today I've felt weird. Tired and the hint of a sore throat and achey eyes. I don't know if I'm about to come down with something or not. I've let my boss know that it's a possibility, and will see how I'm doing in the morning. Perhaps I should be staying home just in case even if my symptoms are only mild? But that puts a lot of extra work on other people at my work, and I don't want to do that to them if I don't have to ...</quote>

I'm not a doctor and reputed to be terrible at judging me own health circumstances, but that has never stopped me from giving advice before, so... :P I'd say for the time being, just get rest and fluids and see if you can conquer it before it gets ahold of you. It doesn't seem like staying home would be mandatory just yet.

<quote id="39903"><quote id="39826">2. Do you know anyone who has?</quote></quote>
<quote id="39903">You!</quote>
I'm special!
Actually, I am special- see my reply to Aemon for why my case isn't really that representative.

<quote id="39903">We've had a few cases here. Not much going on for measures, except that there's an H1N1 vaccine clinic on Thursday. There have been a few deaths from it in neighbouring communities, four or five of them.</quote>
Yikes. That's a bit scary.

<quote id="39903">Never have, no. Well, I guess I was quarantined from other kids when I had chicken pox. But I gave it to my brother and my cousin at the same time, so we all hung out together and played video games.</quote>
Haha, awesome. :D

<quote id="39903">It's definitely been overblown. More people will probably catch it than catch the normal flu. The final death toll can't be known right now, but aside from staying home when you have it, people should probably just live their lives and not panic. Wash your hands, try not to touch your face, that sort of thing. For most people it'll just be a normal flu, if they even catch it. That doesn't mean it's not serious; it is. But it's not the end of the world and it doesn't do any good to panic over it.</quote>
Okay, I apologize for repeating you at some points during this reply. Clearly great minds think alike, and great-minds-on-meds don't always remember what they read just a couple hours ago. :P But in essence, we're very much in agreement. :) 
</quote>

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