Oh...by the way...we may have been wrong about that whole "Global Warming" thing
Tom Send a noteboard - 14/10/2009 03:23:53 PM
From the BBC. Is it any wonder that environmentalists are trying to shift the name of what they're fighting against from "global warming" to "climate change"? The former is getting harder and harder to prove, while the latter happens all the time and regardless of humanity.
why the fuck is this line disappearing if I don't type here?
What happened to global warming?
By Paul Hudson
Climate correspondent, BBC News
This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.
But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.
And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.
So what on Earth is going on?
Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.
They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?
During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.
Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.
But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.
The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.
And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.
He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.
He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.
If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.
Ocean cycles
What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.
According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.
The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).
For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.
But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.
These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.
So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.
Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."
So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.
They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.
But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.
The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.
In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.
In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.
What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.
To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.
Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.
But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.
So what can we expect in the next few years?
Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.
It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (199.
Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.
One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.
Well, I guess we'll see in another couple of years if all those stupid "carbon exchanges" were worth it. I personally think it's just a new way for people to make money for doing essentially nothing.
why the fuck is this line disappearing if I don't type here?
What happened to global warming?
By Paul Hudson
Climate correspondent, BBC News
This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.
But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.
And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.
So what on Earth is going on?
Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.
They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?
During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.
Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.
But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.
The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.
And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.
He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.
He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.
If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.
Ocean cycles
What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.
According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.
The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).
For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.
But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.
These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.
So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.
Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."
So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.
They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.
But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.
The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.
In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.
In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.
What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.
To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.
Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.
But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.
So what can we expect in the next few years?
Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.
It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (199.
Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.
One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.
Well, I guess we'll see in another couple of years if all those stupid "carbon exchanges" were worth it. I personally think it's just a new way for people to make money for doing essentially nothing.
Political correctness is the pettiest form of casuistry.
ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius
Ummaka qinnassa nīk!
*MySmiley*
ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius
Ummaka qinnassa nīk!
*MySmiley*
This message last edited by Tom on 14/10/2009 at 03:25:14 PM
Oh...by the way...we may have been wrong about that whole "Global Warming" thing
14/10/2009 03:23:53 PM
- 1210 Views
This was posted on 10.10.09 by Trzkaska2000. 138 views. 15 replies.
14/10/2009 03:32:52 PM
- 421 Views
Your point being...? *NM*
14/10/2009 03:53:56 PM
- 178 Views
That your post is repetitive.
14/10/2009 05:33:05 PM
- 378 Views
No. I think my post is rather better. It has my priceless comments around the article.
14/10/2009 06:56:41 PM
- 368 Views
Your post is neither better nor worse. Same thing but reposted.
14/10/2009 08:23:55 PM
- 351 Views
They replied to someone else's post and viewpoint and insight.
14/10/2009 09:06:32 PM
- 372 Views
From your viewpoint. Not from mine. *NM*
14/10/2009 09:57:01 PM
- 188 Views
Perhaps. Either way, though, I'm egotistical enough not to care that it was posted elsewhere before *NM*
15/10/2009 03:45:14 AM
- 203 Views
In fairness, I only replied after you pointed towards that other thread in here.
14/10/2009 10:08:53 PM
- 343 Views
Within a decade, the North Pole will be ice-free during the summer
14/10/2009 03:35:31 PM
- 514 Views
That's strange, considering it melted less this summer than usual.
14/10/2009 03:55:28 PM
- 397 Views
I'm sorry but you are wrong. It is the third greatest melt on record.
14/10/2009 05:38:02 PM
- 346 Views
Who called it? *Double thumbs* This guy. This guy called it. *NM*
14/10/2009 04:13:43 PM
- 317 Views
Re: Oh...by the way...we may have been wrong about that whole "Global Warming" thing
14/10/2009 04:36:57 PM
- 426 Views
I registered it as a bug
14/10/2009 04:40:20 PM
- 355 Views
Possible Consequences of taking global warming seriously...
14/10/2009 04:37:32 PM
- 445 Views
Increased cost for everyone
14/10/2009 04:42:07 PM
- 387 Views
Increased costs?
14/10/2009 05:11:11 PM
- 431 Views
You misunderstand my position.
14/10/2009 05:23:29 PM
- 421 Views
greed
14/10/2009 06:45:35 PM
- 367 Views
That's not how things work.
14/10/2009 06:50:27 PM
- 348 Views
Then lets change the way things work. Not as if capitalism is required by the US constition.
15/10/2009 07:04:51 PM
- 333 Views
You are really dense if you believe that
14/10/2009 06:59:43 PM
- 349 Views
capitalists are the dense ones if they believe that it is even a somewhat good system
15/10/2009 07:11:47 PM
- 343 Views
Tell that to the unwashed idiots who believe you and ruin the world with another revolution. *NM*
16/10/2009 05:59:01 PM
- 185 Views
Capitalism is one of the great inventions of the West - and so is socialism.
16/10/2009 06:13:12 PM
- 350 Views
Welcome to Communism!
14/10/2009 09:45:02 PM
- 343 Views
communism is a system of government. SOCIALISM is an economic system
15/10/2009 07:01:16 PM
- 364 Views
The word communism can mean either political system or economic system or both.
15/10/2009 07:25:59 PM
- 397 Views
Cap and trade is an attempt to use the power of the free market - you'd think you'd appreciate that.
14/10/2009 10:24:46 PM
- 432 Views
Cap and trade is something only big companies can really afford
15/10/2009 03:52:52 AM
- 527 Views
"Whoever lays his hand on me to govern me is a usurper and tyrant, and I declare him my enemy."
15/10/2009 04:20:21 AM
- 379 Views
Other Possible Consequences of taking global warming seriously...
14/10/2009 06:33:38 PM
- 365 Views
+1
14/10/2009 06:46:11 PM
- 363 Views
So you decided to ignore my response?
14/10/2009 07:02:01 PM
- 378 Views
No, I just think it's gonna pay off in the long run
14/10/2009 07:21:04 PM
- 380 Views
+ 1 I agree with you completely in here.
14/10/2009 08:19:45 PM
- 357 Views
So, I guess you are now a Catholic?
14/10/2009 09:49:21 PM
- 424 Views
I hope you're not suggesting the Global Warming is only a rallying cry for the Right?
14/10/2009 09:48:22 PM
- 392 Views
No worries, it's worth a second post!!! AGW is total BS.....
14/10/2009 09:39:20 PM
- 487 Views
I probably would have just responded if I had seen that you had posted
15/10/2009 03:54:29 AM
- 358 Views
I love how even when people factor in cosmic rays the naysayers reject findings they dislike.
15/10/2009 05:07:31 AM
- 442 Views
Well, it's good to see that some folks still actually follow science rather than politics
16/10/2009 05:04:17 PM
- 424 Views