Probably. In a field this big he might still rise to the top five, but probably not to victory.
Legolas Send a noteboard - 10/08/2015 07:36:57 PM
View original postKasich has intrigued me ever since he signalled he was running (I owe Isaac a huge mea culpa for severely underestimating his governor in 2012.) Since the debate, I have seen a number of pundits suggest he may be the winner simply for proving he could run with the big dogs when he had not even been in the race a month, and would not even have been AT the debate had it been just five days earlier. One analyst even claimed the debate put Kasich in the "top tier," a small group that will only shrink Rubios poor polling, poor fundraising and having to share ALL natural resources with JEB gradually kill his candidacy (though I did see on pundit say he was "co-winner" with Kasich.)
I wouldn't underestimate Rubio - he's young, handsome, articulate and Hispanic - but I do feel his candidacy is lacking something. Grit, for one thing, and arguably also a more distinctive message. Still, he's excellently positioned as a compromise candidate, and if he improves further down the line I could see him become the nominee under the right circumstances.
View original postMeh, primaries are all about preaching to the choir, in Huckabees case, literally. It is a real shame; his pro-environment and public health care record as governor of one of the poorest states really appealed to me in '08--then he lost the nomination, got his Fox gig and went off the deep end about how CO2 is a diabolical myth.
Off the deep end sounds about right. Both he and Carson earned themselves an automatic disqualification from consideration in my book with retarded Nazi references (the hilarious pseudo-economic ravings weren't even the decisive factor). They are even starting to make Santorum look good, and that's not a mean feat.
View original postFour to SIX?! There were ONLY ten; if I read and subtracted correctly, you are saying Cruz and Christie are at least "maybe"s? Yeesh, given how Christie handles intercity politics and Cruz cooperates with his own Senate caucus, put either in a room with Putin and we are ALL dead.
Well, not Cruz, Walker. And indeed only very remotely, with Paul only slightly more likely. But Christie, yes - along with, as you probably guessed, Bush, Rubio and Kasich. Christie might have a somewhat less presidential appearance and mentality than the other three, but he does deserve credit for being the only one making a strong case for fiscal responsibility with regards to entitlements. And he's moderate enough that he's unlikely to do much harm on other points.
View original postMoot point: JEB had this the moment he announced. His fundraising is jaw-dropping; more than Hillary and Cruz (his next closest competitors) COMBINED. That buys a lot of poo and a lot of monkeys to throw it all over the country from now until November 2016. And several analysts have noted the same thing I did: Trump rocketed to the top mostly by stealing supporters from everyone else (the biggest loser was Rubio, who saw his polling nearly halved,) but there were a few other winners: Kasich rose enough to make the debate, Walker rose a full point, and JEB rose FOUR as establishment Republicans desperately rallied around the most viable alternative to the Trumpocalypse.
You've been saying that for a very long time; I'm still thinking wait and see. He has a good, probably the best, shot, but it's a long way from certain.
View original postIncidentally, EVP re-entered the fray a week ago today, for the first time since the midterms, with a characteristically thorough and accurate post (IMHO) covering all the primary candidates in both parties. The Votemaster also said he does not know if he has the time to keep the site up through the election, but does know there will not be daily posts. Makes me a bit sad, since RCP and everyone else has coopted the poll aggregation model he pioneered in 2004 (when he actually ran three different versions of polls to see which proved most accurate in the end; averaging the past week with the most recent days weighted proved best, and is what most folks use now.) I disagree with him on a few assessments (he is far too hard on Webb, IMHO) but completely agree on most. Anyway, just and FYI (or nostalgia; if a week is an eternity in politics, what are a dozen years...?)
Oh, cool. I'll check that out.
So can Trump actually win the nomination?
06/08/2015 06:02:41 PM
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I still think no. The media want ratings and feed the hype, that's all.
06/08/2015 06:54:25 PM
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Bloomberg is a democrat
06/08/2015 11:14:03 PM
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You misunderstand me.
07/08/2015 06:49:15 AM
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I think Trump hurt himslef in the debate last night
07/08/2015 01:20:51 PM
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Yeah, that's weird - you almost never hear about Cruz being born in Canada.
07/08/2015 09:49:32 PM
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Immediate post-debate polls showed most thought FOX bullied TRUMP, who stared it down
10/08/2015 01:14:59 PM
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Trumps exceptionally high presidential AND disapproval ratings are due to the GOP civil war
10/08/2015 01:12:27 PM
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I don't think so.
07/08/2015 01:51:18 PM
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Kasich is such a good choice I do not know whether to want or fear his nomination
10/08/2015 01:19:05 PM
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I am horrified that this is even a legitimate question. But it is.
07/08/2015 04:42:31 PM
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Some partially related thoughts after actually watching the debate...
07/08/2015 09:28:42 PM
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Kasich is easily the GOPs best choice, so probably has no shot
10/08/2015 01:31:44 PM
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Probably. In a field this big he might still rise to the top five, but probably not to victory.
10/08/2015 07:36:57 PM
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Betfair betting markets say no
08/08/2015 08:41:36 AM
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it just shocks me that his numbers stay high no matter he says
09/08/2015 03:40:47 PM
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Yeah, but betting markets are proven to be far more accurate than polls
11/08/2015 07:54:55 AM
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Where did the have Obama this far out from his first primary?
11/08/2015 04:42:00 PM
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Re: Where did the have Obama this far out from his first primary?
12/08/2015 01:22:19 AM
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i think i would need to see proof that they were picking him in August 2007
12/08/2015 01:40:31 AM
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Watching a bunch of old men tear themselves apart over women being people...
09/08/2015 06:22:54 PM
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Trump probably *can* win the nomination
13/08/2015 10:24:49 PM
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please show the poll with Bush trailing Clinton by anywhere 20points
14/08/2015 12:49:47 AM
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