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Good, I was hoping you'd drop by! Legolas Send a noteboard - 19/07/2014 08:33:44 PM

View original postFrom my POV, there's much merit to both your talking points. I mean, the pro-Palestinian supporters seem to be so righteous and unquestioning I tend to think maybe they have the right attitude for their cause. I don't seem to recall such disruptive protests when Assad was killing 300000 Sunnies, but hit Gaza with a fraction of that force and you get tehm all riled up.

That's certainly also true, at least for a large part of the pro-Palestinian supporters. Too few of them ever bother to put themselves in the shoes of an average Israeli, or of an Israeli political leader, and ask themselves what they would do in their position.
View original postI think Isrsel needs to adopt a carrot and stick attitude, give more carrots to Fatah. What those carrots should be, I'm not sure.

Agreed with the first part, not with the second. It's Hamas that you need the stick and carrots with. And Bibi proved his astonishing lack of anything resembling leadership or vision, yet again, when reacting so pettily to the formation of the Palestinian unity government, instead of seeing it as the big opportunity that it was. When have you ever known that man to take a real stand, do anything other than what public opinion seems to be telling him to do? Even Arafat was a better leader than that, and that's saying something.

I take it you read the conditions that Hamas required in exchange for stopping the missiles - they essentially merely amounted to a return to the status quo. After all, if you don't believe that Hamas' leadership ordered that kidnapping, which I at least haven't seen any proof of (it's likely that people with ties to Hamas were involved, but that is not the same thing), then it's really Bibi who initiated hostilities with the big crackdown and mass arrests. The retaliation murder didn't help, though at least he's smart enough to take that seriously.

View original postYou and I always agreed Israel should withdraw to the 1967 borders with some land swaps, but if there is something Gaza has shown it is that things are never that simple. Why wouldn't Hamas take over the west bank and continue its resistance from there ? There are plenty of children and civilians to hide behind in the West Bank too, and you know the pro-Palestinian crowd will keep at it no matter what.

Well, if some of your compatriots get their way, I dare say the West Bank would become another Gaza, another open-air prison. In which case, yes, it's hard to see much incentive for Hamas to remain peaceful.

But if an actually viable Palestinian state is allowed to exist, it could be a different story. Hamas is weaker than it used to be, both within Palestine and in terms of foreign allies, and I do think the years they have spent actually governing have led them to think more responsibly, as well. I'm certainly not saying that I expect them to become peaceful upstanding citizens just like that - there definitely needs to be a stick along with the carrot. But not this kind of stick, which is just a PR disaster even apart from the morality of the massive collateral damage. And also not the kind of stick that impedes the viability of the future Palestinian state by expanding settlements.

View original postThere was a good comparison somewhere between the Palestinians and Iraqi Kurdistan. Barazani said they also had the option of terror, but chose nation building instead. If Gaza had chosen nation building, they could have forced Israel via popular opinion to lift the blockade in 6 months, a year tops. You and I know that if Israel lifts the blockade they would use it to bring in even heavier weaponry, which will result in more children dying when playing at the beach.

Since when does Israel do anything because of foreign popular opinion? Or do you mean domestic? In any case, I'm not sure I find the comparison that apt - the Palestinian case is rather uniquely complicated. And Hamas did in fact stop engaging in terror for the sake of terror, using those missiles merely in response to provocations from the other side such as that mass round of arrests, while keeping other groups from firing any, as well.

As for lifting the blockade - Israel can maintain strict inspections and controls to keep weapon imports to a minimum, without a full-scale blockade like now, and without keeping the Gazans from fishing in their own sea.

View original postAnyways, that's just talk because it's the time for a stick now, and that's something Bibi is doing very well right now. There is really no choice. Bibi cannot allow routine rockets on Tel Aviv, even if they do get intercepted. Because rockets and sirens day in and day out will make anyone who is young and capable or has a dual citizenship leave to Europe or the US. He's got Egypt in our corner now and Hamas must be hit as hard as possible.

Which will achieve what, precisely? The best case scenario that I can see, from the IDF's perspective - at least assuming that this operation will refrain from becoming a long-term military occupation of the Gaza Strip, or attempting to overthrow Hamas - is that Hamas' significant progress in terms of the range of targets it can hit with missiles is reversed, and the range is reduced to what it used to be. That would be important, but on the other hand it would just be returning to the status quo of a few years ago, without any progress having been made on either side that I can see. In terms of getting Hamas to be more cooperative, which you suggest is the real goal, I can only say it looks extremely counterproductive to me.

As much as I despise Sisi, you're right that he offers an opportunity by weakening Hamas - but a diplomatic opportunity, not a military one. It's not as if having a friendly regime next door in Egypt was any really game-changing help to Hamas in military terms - it was much more important diplomatically. And then the Syrian situation weakens them further, by massively discrediting their allies in Iran and Hezbollah, and making it politically difficult for them to keep good ties with them.

A leader who was out to obtain peace - Rabin, say, maybe even Sharon - would have done something with that opportunity. Bibi just proves that Abba Eban's old line is as true for him as it ever was for Arafat - though I will admit that Arafats failure to grasp opportunities caused more damage to his people than Bibi's ever could. That is really part of the problem - in the short and even middle term, a peace agreement might cost Israel more than its benefits would justify, because it has already achieved by its own hand the main thing the Palestinians had to offer, near-guaranteed security for Israeli citizens (obviously I think that's a great achievement, even if I strongly disapprove of some of the methods used to reach it), while also grabbing more and more that it would have to give back.

I think that is really one of the main factors behind the "Boycott, Divest, Sanction" campaign - an attempt to create stronger incentives for Israel to reach a peace agreement. Not that I support that campaign - settlements should be boycotted as a matter of course, but nothing in Israel proper - but I do kind of understand it, looking at it that way.

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Those morons in Gaza (i.e., Hamas) are at it again - - 18/07/2014 04:02:57 PM 1152 Views
If by awesome you mean execrable, then yes, you're right. - 18/07/2014 11:45:53 PM 655 Views
Sounds like someone doesn't like jews! - 19/07/2014 04:24:41 AM 587 Views
It's funny you should say that. - 19/07/2014 09:36:57 AM 668 Views
your criticism would be better applied to Palestine supporters - 19/07/2014 11:50:37 AM 569 Views
My criticism IS also applied to Palestine supporters. It's not an either/or deal. - 19/07/2014 09:03:51 PM 598 Views
Agreed on that much, certainly. - 23/07/2014 03:05:22 AM 723 Views
Well, look who's back in the game! - 23/07/2014 07:44:45 PM 822 Views
Haltingly.... - 07/08/2014 03:41:06 AM 647 Views
The only good thing about ancient interminable wars is that--more-- - 13/06/2015 11:40:48 PM 502 Views
Oh lord. - 22/06/2015 10:08:22 PM 571 Views
"'Dialing for Dollars' is looking for me" - 24/06/2015 04:48:51 AM 645 Views
At the risk of prompting another long ramble, I've no idea what that reference is to. - 24/06/2015 10:39:42 PM 530 Views
"Oh, Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes-Benz?!" - 26/06/2015 12:41:48 PM 505 Views
I'm going to try to shorten and summarize this a bit... - 28/06/2015 11:21:28 PM 846 Views
I couldn't help but overhear... - 19/07/2014 01:13:01 PM 642 Views
Good, I was hoping you'd drop by! - 19/07/2014 08:33:44 PM 757 Views
I strongly beg to differ with your position re: Hamas - 26/07/2014 04:25:54 PM 522 Views
Sorry, I don't see that. - 26/07/2014 08:57:08 PM 609 Views
I guess if you believe the lies of Hamas your position makes sense. - 27/07/2014 03:20:03 PM 555 Views
+1 - 27/07/2014 04:00:05 PM 626 Views
I certainly don't believe everything they say, no. - 27/07/2014 06:43:51 PM 633 Views
the carrot and stick is somewhat apt, although israel should have given way more carrots to date - 22/07/2014 08:57:13 PM 656 Views
So Israel should back the least radical Palestinian faction & construct Palestinian infrastructure? - 23/07/2014 04:51:19 AM 616 Views
yes - 23/07/2014 05:04:58 PM 768 Views
I pretty much agree with everything you said. - 24/07/2014 09:46:22 AM 740 Views
Why do you hate America? - 23/07/2014 02:29:24 AM 622 Views
Bottom line - stop lobbing missles into Israel and the problem is solved. - 28/07/2014 03:35:46 AM 542 Views
It's a circle of violence. Both sides are the villian. - 31/07/2014 03:50:52 AM 658 Views

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