I also doubt that the Obama Administration is capable enough to implement any strategy it may formulate (through Kerry or otherwise). Obama is too distracted by trying to make sure that his signature piece of legislation doesn't collapse entirely that I also doubt other Western nations can get his ear on the Middle East, so to speak.
The result is that Obama will let the regional powers expand their proxy war. Tacitly, that means that Obama will let Assad remain in power. With support from Hezbollah and Iran Assad is likely to win the civil war, though it may be well into 2015 (or even later) when that happens given the numbers of jihadis in the north.
Of course, if Lebanon and Iraq get sucked in then I don't see an Assad victory even in 2015, because Hezbollah support will have to be withdrawn from Syria as a second Lebanese civil war starts. There may even be Christian parties on both sides of the new Lebanese war, which is ironic because Assad in Syria is all that stands between Syrian Christians and the radical jihadis of ISIS and Al-Nusra. If the Sunnis of Iraq decide that this is their time to break the central government, then Iran will have to support two civil wars financially at a time when it has few resources to spare due to sanctions. Direct Iranian involvement would likely spark Turkish and Saudi involvement and a full-scale regional war.
I will admit that I think the region has been building to this for quite some time; it seems that one of the side effects of the US invasion of Iraq was to expose Sunni-Shia enmity that had been papered over for decades by dictators who hid behind pan-Arab nationalism and support of the Palestinian cause.
As The Economist wrote (quoting al-Hayat): We should admit that the Arab spring’s toppling of dictators has simply split our flimsy nations into clashing sects and tribes. We should admit that the struggle for Palestine has faded from our thoughts, that our own squabbling has granted Israel its greatest victory yet without the loss of a single soldier, and that the central struggle for us now is the one between Sunnis and Shias. After all this blood and slaughter, from Iraq to Syria and beyond, we should admit that we Arabs no longer want to live together.
I have the idea that sooner or later the West is going to have to make a 180° turn and side with Assad in Syria, or at least accept a solution that keeps him in power. But it will be very interesting to see how they get the Saudis around to that stance - and what will be left of not only Syria but also Lebanon and Iraq by the time they do it. And with Turkey looking increasingly unpredictable, it might become an even bigger mess - not that Turkey would degenerate so badly, but having a strong Turkey would help to resolve the Syrian mess.
There's certainly a gigantic opportunity for Iran, if they step in and take it.
ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius
Ummaka qinnassa nīk!
*MySmiley*
