Active Users:352 Time:27/11/2024 09:09:56 PM
Re: So... a limited strike on Syria ? DomA Send a noteboard - 29/08/2013 10:43:15 PM

View original post
What do you think ?
not sure I get the rationale. Obama has maneuvered himself into a bad position. Most of the public opposed a strike, but if he were to sit this one out, it would also reflect bad on him.

You need to widen the perspective beyond the US to grasp the rationale, as Obama is but the most prominent dancer in the global western ballet around Syria but it's not a solo show. It's not Obama on his own that painted himself into a corner (though it's quite fair his political opponents are depicting him that way), but all the NATO allies are in the same bad spot. Beside, they've not really painted themselves into a corner so much as they've long all been stuck in a diplomatic deadlock with Russia over Syria, and now Assad is making all of them look bad and they have to wither this without crossing a no-return line and they're not quite sure yet where that line is. They all barked loud their outrage with one voice, now they're letting supposed "hesitations" and "divisions" among NATO allies show and they let Russia its chance to bark back, which all serve to justify moving slowly. Typically the US will voice "frustration" at the UN and play the bad cop to add pressure, and others' job will be to dither so the US doesn't get a consensus for a strike within NATO unless it really wants one, not just pretend it intends to act. Meanwhile Russia is stalling, trying to delay as long as possible having to veto a resolution that would permit the use of force against Syria. Right now Turkey pushes for a strike, France is saying everything and its opposite in turn - the only consensus being to "firmly condemn Assad", the UK voices caution and its desire to wait for the results of the UN investigation, Canada announced it will support the US and NATO if they strike, even without a UN mandate, but it can't participate militarily, etc.

It's a well orchestrated diplomatic ballet, hot and cold and quite typical of this sort of situations (but that we hadn't seen that much of since the cold war). In the end NATO allies won't strike without a UN mandate unless it has sufficient assurances Russia is ready to stand aside or will react diplomatically only, which apparently they won't have (ATM a strike on Syria would be a major loss of face for Russia). And whatever they say, they're all waiting to see first to see what will come out of the Security Council. The "imminent" limited strike idea was of course mostly a show for the gallery.



Reply to message
So... a limited strike on Syria ? - 29/08/2013 04:31:07 PM 1098 Views
I would have supported action over a year ago, but not now. - 29/08/2013 05:29:52 PM 589 Views
Rand Paul is a Leftist now? - 30/08/2013 01:13:17 AM 712 Views
Killing people to not look bad! What a guy! - 29/08/2013 05:44:59 PM 657 Views
Re: So... a limited strike on Syria ? - 29/08/2013 10:43:15 PM 641 Views
I think you're wrong. - 30/08/2013 04:44:53 AM 619 Views
I think the real question is "Just how crazy is Iran?" - 30/08/2013 01:48:49 PM 716 Views
You misunderstood me - 30/08/2013 07:13:41 PM 578 Views
I don't think the Iranians are stupid enough to strike - 01/09/2013 03:04:24 AM 540 Views
I don't really care - 30/08/2013 10:35:55 AM 619 Views
I am not a fan of symbolic bombing - 30/08/2013 12:52:01 PM 624 Views
Looks like the buck inexplicably stops at Congress - 31/08/2013 11:23:20 PM 576 Views
Nice theory, to bad it is crap - 01/09/2013 06:23:31 PM 553 Views
Again, Rand Paul is loony left now? - 01/09/2013 10:15:17 PM 766 Views
Again you seem to have read most the words but completely missed the point - 02/09/2013 06:48:26 PM 701 Views
Fox and Joe Lieberman=/=MSNBC either. - 02/09/2013 10:21:16 PM 705 Views
Yeah, I don't like any of it. - 01/09/2013 12:40:35 AM 585 Views
Glad to hear you think he should more like Bush and asked congrees first - 01/09/2013 06:27:03 PM 521 Views
How about no strike per the American people? Period. Fucking idiots in Washington. - 01/09/2013 05:01:13 AM 610 Views
To be fair, that was what the American people said in 1940 - 02/09/2013 05:19:46 AM 564 Views
Hall has frozen over... you are correct. - 02/09/2013 11:22:13 PM 613 Views
Well, glad we can agree on something. - 03/09/2013 02:00:21 AM 575 Views
That comparison is not valid. - 05/09/2013 09:25:38 PM 586 Views
I have to say, I am opposed to a strike against Assad. - 05/09/2013 10:46:04 AM 570 Views

Reply to Message