I agree that Egypt won't erupt into a full-scale civil war. Enough of the Mubarak apparatus is still in place that in the next few weeks tens of thousands of Brotherhood supporters will be in jail, the ones that aren't will realize that each "day of rage" is just going to end up in more of their supporters dead, and we'll be back to a happy level of security in Egypt. If that doesn't happen, I'm more than satisfied that the police and army can kill enough bad guys until we get there, sooner or later. It might take a year. Either way, the risk of a Brotherhood-controlled Egypt is a thing of the past as long as our leaders don't get stupid and forget that we WANT them shooting those lunatics. If they need to kill 10,000, they should kill 10,000. If they need to get rid of a million, send them the bullets and let them do it.

As far as Lebanon goes, no, they ARE that stupid, or rather, they've let themselves forget things. Nasrallah really opened the door to it all when he went "all in" on helping Assad hold onto power. It will degenerate from where it is now. It may not look like the previous civil war - in fact, much of it will probably play out near the Syrian border - but I think it almost certainly will end up getting violent and dangerous in Lebanon in a way it hasn't been.

With Iraq, the Sunnis have been waiting and gathering strength ever since the US left. It is highly likely that if the Shias keep trying to run things the way they have, the country will fracture. Kurdistan is already an independent nation for all intents and purposes, and they are likely to merge with the Kurdish parts of Syria and just break away from the whole damn mess. Then the Sunnis and Shias fight over the rest of Iraqo-Syria-Lebanon.