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These states' borders are the key. The Shrike Send a noteboard - 15/08/2013 07:16:04 PM

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View original postIraq, Syria, Egypt. Authoritarian secularists on one side and Authoritarian Islamists on the other side. Some small parallels to Yugoslavia in the 90's. Look for Turkey to be the next site of serious clashes.

In Iraq and to a large extent Syria, the battle is more between Sunnites and Shi'ites - in both cases including more secularly oriented people as well as religious fanatics - than between secular and Islamist.

And as for Turkey, I can't agree with that at all. Not to say that Turkey doesn't have issues, as the anti-Erdogan demonstrations underlined, but I see absolutely no reason to expect anything like what is going on in Egypt now.


I did not argue about who the war was between in Syria and in Iraq. It was my fault that my sentence was unclear. It was only referring to Egypt. The argument is about why there is civil war/clashes/unrest. All three states were also run by authoritarian dictators for decades. And now without the authoritarian dictator to stifle dissent, we have civil war.

We could also discuss the demographic dividends fueling the unrest. Older societies are unlikely to engage in such activities. 1/3rd of Egypt is under 16. In Syria its a little over 1/3rd. Iraq is about 40 percent. Turkey more stable at only 25% under 16. These are young, restless societies. Without an authoritarian ruler (who tended to be secular) to hold them together and to quash dissent, you will see a reversal to tribal loyalties that will split the societies apart. The Wilsonian borders are a big problem. This is why I expect Turkey to be a problem at some point soon. Though Turkey, in some respects, is more like a European society in 1848. Not modern enough. Not backward enough. A revolution/more civil unrest is possible. And here too the unrest may be fueled by secularists versus Islamists.

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What the hell is happening in Egypt? *NM* - 15/08/2013 05:32:29 PM 495 Views
A small(ish) civil war. - 15/08/2013 06:45:29 PM 597 Views
Hmmm. - 15/08/2013 07:02:38 PM 533 Views
These states' borders are the key. - 15/08/2013 07:16:04 PM 582 Views
Exactly what everyone knew would happen. *NM* - 15/08/2013 10:35:08 PM 277 Views
+1 *NM* - 15/08/2013 11:12:45 PM 264 Views
Yes. *NM* - 16/08/2013 05:07:44 PM 212 Views
+3 *NM* - 16/08/2013 10:19:46 PM 200 Views
Everyone hates each other. - 16/08/2013 05:18:54 PM 518 Views
That's awfully apocalyptic, don't you think? - 16/08/2013 07:34:12 PM 580 Views
No. - 17/08/2013 07:45:27 PM 599 Views
Why on earth would we want them shooting "those lunatics"? - 17/08/2013 09:46:58 PM 509 Views
A working democracy? How quaintly utopian. - 18/08/2013 05:00:10 AM 565 Views
You are confusing religous people with religous nations. *NM* - 17/08/2013 08:32:55 PM 230 Views

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