It will be too messy to try and have federally recognized marriages that are not recognized in some states. If a gay married soldier is stationed in North Carolina is he only married while on base? What happens if he wants to get divorced? Can a North Carolina judge divorce a couple they don’t consider married? The opposition to gay marriage will be seen more and more as petty and cruel. I think the tone of either side will play a role as well. The supporters of gay marriage have gone from in your face and angry to upbeat and inclusive while the diehards opposing are sounding more and more like the kind of people who burn witches and are really down to arguing that God will be angry if we don't listen to them.