Night favors us tactically, but it wouldn't keep the attack secret
Isaac Send a noteboard - 12/03/2013 02:29:53 AM
View original post
View original postYou can't hide an evac of a large city without detection, night or not.
View original postArtillery accuracy isn't effected by daylight and it isn't just about daylight helping the evacuation, it is about how hard an unexpected evacuation would be if people had already gone to sleep. During winter you might do one at night if you felt it was easier to do the evacuation when most people would be at home but still awake but odds favor it would be easier to evacuate workplaces and schools, person for person, then homes. Most already have safety drills and I don't know but I am guessing in Korea those include 'WWAARR!!!' not just FIRE!!!. If I were them and if I had been doing school drills I'd want to do it during school hours on a school day. Even without the drills, far easier for a police officer or two and the teachers to coordinate several hundred kids then several hundred individual families.
View original postI take it for granted we could not hide an evacuation at any time, but wonder whether daylight evacuation at the cost of inviting an attack would result in less casualties than launching nighttime air strikes on artillery positions BEFORE evacuation in the hopes most could be neutralized, or at least otherwise engaged, before they began firing on South Korea. If it looked like most of the assault were not coming across the DMZ anyway, shelling South Korea would do little but 1) waste limited material needed to defend the Motherland, 2) make Chinas aid more diplomatically difficult and 3) ensure the eventual peace terms were especially punitive.
It's very hard to hide troop movements from modern tech, and they have access to the sorts of things that let you see that too. In infrared a column of tanks is about as invisible as Mardi Gras.
As to your 3 options, it's always a bad idea to guess what will happen because it seems to make sense, because the guys in charge on each side know them too and will always do something different.
Remember my only point in this is that N Korea's artillery is just as big a threat as their nukes and that evacuation and first strike can't ensure minimal casualties. I don't armchair quarterback diplomatic and military enterprises.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
North Korea Withdraws from Korean War Armistice
- 08/03/2013 10:39:44 PM
1284 Views
Again? Didn't they "tear up the armistice" a few years ago?
- 08/03/2013 10:49:59 PM
579 Views
They said they were "no longer obligated" after the second nuke test, and would resist attacks.
- 09/03/2013 10:16:17 PM
675 Views
Not to diminish the role of China in this but you're bypassing the actual issue
- 09/03/2013 11:26:18 PM
609 Views
I would like it noted I responded to you before you responded to me. 
- 09/03/2013 11:40:18 PM
700 Views
- 09/03/2013 11:40:18 PM
700 Views
Duly noted
- 10/03/2013 01:03:59 AM
693 Views
One word: evacuation.
- 10/03/2013 03:22:42 AM
559 Views
The thought did occur to me, but swiftly followed by Isaacs response.
- 11/03/2013 05:26:37 PM
645 Views
NK artillery myth
- 10/03/2013 03:59:36 PM
718 Views
Seoul isn't the only urban location, refering to it simply saves time
- 10/03/2013 04:38:40 PM
647 Views
Well, but one would assume that after an initial salvo the South Koreans would counterstrike.
- 10/03/2013 06:51:34 PM
623 Views
Definitely, but you still get a high civilian body toll
- 10/03/2013 08:14:26 PM
625 Views
Tactical question: Better by daylight to aid evacuation, or night to avoid detection?
- 11/03/2013 06:48:21 PM
652 Views
Daylight, hands down I think
- 11/03/2013 07:22:26 PM
617 Views
No, I meant daylight to aid evacuation or night to prevent detecting an attack.
- 11/03/2013 10:14:57 PM
689 Views
Night favors us tactically, but it wouldn't keep the attack secret
- 12/03/2013 02:29:53 AM
641 Views
I would love to have a solid excuse for us to crush them like a bug.
- 08/03/2013 11:54:22 PM
618 Views
It really is a pity that N. Korea isn't located in remote Siberia.
- 09/03/2013 06:09:44 AM
540 Views
This. Sadly.
- 09/03/2013 04:38:13 PM
564 Views
I am beginning to wonder if China might formally annex North Korea, and the implications of that.
- 11/03/2013 06:24:28 PM
680 Views
You do realize you are massively exaggerating on the subject of China, yes?
- 13/03/2013 06:15:32 AM
651 Views
Fair point on South Korea; like I say, I would hate to be them right now.
- 09/03/2013 11:22:49 PM
688 Views
Wipe those fuckers off the face of the earth. Goddamn I'm tired of those bastards *NM*
- 09/03/2013 02:01:44 AM
295 Views
There is little I would like better, but I doubt China would allow it to be that simple.
- 09/03/2013 11:26:30 PM
643 Views
Great, another possible war. Don't people get tired of them? *NM*
- 11/03/2013 06:51:38 PM
509 Views
Evidently not, but then, this war never truly ended; it was just postponed to a later date.
- 11/03/2013 10:09:09 PM
640 Views
You do realize that this is the exact same legal justification for the Iraq invasion?
- 13/03/2013 05:06:51 PM
554 Views